Monday, September 26, 2022

italy election results

119 FdI (nationalist and hard right)
66 Lega (populist and hard right)
45 FI (right wing)
7 other right
total - 237

69 PD (progressive)
12 GreenLeft (left wing)
4 other left
total - 85

52 M5S (left populist)
21 A-IV (moderate liberal)
5 others
total - 78


The short of it is that FdI and Meloni has won the election, but she will require the support of both Lega (Salvini), and FI (Berlusconi) to form government; but, these parties already agreed to such a thing prior to the election. 


Note, the results in the senate are similar. Right wing majority, but, the 3 larger right-wing parties all needed for a majority. 

Sunday, September 25, 2022

Thursday, September 15, 2022

small sweden update

 The sitting Social-Democrat Prime Minister has resigned, effectively signalling that the right-wing bloc around M (Moderates) has "won" the election. More as it comes. 

Monday, September 12, 2022

Sep2022 Sweden election results

24 - V - Hard Left
108 - S - Progressive
18 - MP - Green Party
24 - C - Agrarian-Liberal
16 - L - Liberal
67 - M - Centre-right
19 - KD - Social Conservative
73 - SD - Hard Right


Unclear what governments can be formed. S+M (the Socialists and the Moderate Party) would also have a majority, but by a single seat. However, the two parties seem to be talking. This would effectively be a "grand coalition" government; and, if I was leader of C (the centre party, which is agrarian-liberal) I would be trying to get in on this, in large part, because my party is between these two policy-wise, and we could not only easily slot in to such a government, but give it boosted numbers.

SD seems to have been the big "winner", but, as the more "extreme" party, its not likely they'll be in government.

However.

SD+M+L+KD technically has a majority by a single seat. SD will push hard for this option. 

My money is on S+M+C, or, another election in a few weeks/months. 

Keep in mind that an implausible V+MP+C+L+M+KD government would not have a majority; meaning either S, or SD, need to be in a government for it to have a majority. 

Lastly, note that Sweden no longer requires a majority for its governments. It is possible for a minority to take office, as has been the case for the last little while. However, like the current government, any new minority could easily 'collapse' and cause a new election.


Saturday, September 10, 2022

sweden election tomorrow.

poll average; no commentary. 

29 - V - Hard Left
98 - S - Progressive
23 - MP - Green Party
26 - C - Agrarian-Liberal
21 - L - Liberal
60 - M - Centre-right
22 - KD - Social Conservative
71 - SD - Hard Right

Friday, September 2, 2022

sweden; 3 poll average

30 - V - Hard Left
101 - S - Progressive
19 - MP - Green Party
26 - C - Agrarian-Liberal
22 - L - Liberal
59 - M - Centre-right
22 - KD - Social Conservative
70 - SD - Hard Right


Election is on the 11th. 149 is needed for a majority.


Unclear what kind of coalition could be formed, but a S-V-MP coalition would have a majority; but that's perhaps not likely. 

Tuesday, August 16, 2022

Update! 16AUG2022

 Upcoming elections:

SEP 11 - Sweden - unclear (might not cover)

OCT 03 - Quebec - likely huge CAQ majority (might not cover)

NOV 01 - Israel - Bibi is doing well (will cover)


So yes, I'm not gone; but, as is likely clear by now, the amount I post here has gone way down.

Thursday, June 9, 2022

announcement on the future of this blog

 I'll be short with this. I'm continuing to get my life in order with personal improvements. One of said improvements is to stop wasting time. In some, if not many ways, I feel some, if not most, of what I do on this blog, qualifies, as wasting time. 

The blog is not going away. I plan to continue posting for years to come. 

However, I have made the decision to stop my focus on timing. That means posts will become less often, similar to what you may have seen over the past 6 weeks. I will continue to cover events, but in a far more "short" manner. I'll still point out important things as I see them, but, will no longer feel pressure to report on an election the day after it happens with analysis. 

I am still planning on discussing the Ontario election, and will explain how taking off Del Duca's glasses directly lead to a Ford majority. But. I will not be posting that today. Or tomorrow. Perhaps not even this weekend.

I will keep you all updated on any other steps in my path to personal improvement that may impact the blog. For now, however, less frequent posts is the result. 

Wednesday, June 1, 2022

quick reminder (ontario election)

 Don't forget to check out my post from earlier today if you've missed it.


This is simply a reminder that the small dots in the ridings mean that riding is winnable. As such any momentum towards the PC party, could, if they do well enough, look like this:





Not saying this will happen. Simply that it could. 

Ontario election tomorrow

 Turnout.


This election has been boring. I won't mince words. There have been some policy announcements, interesting debates, and differences between the parties; but overall, this election has been quiet, and boring. 

As such, Turnout is going to decide what happens. How, and more importantly, why?

The Liberals. In 2018, it was time for the Liberal government to take a break. As such, many regular Liberal voters didn't show up to vote. You can see this in turnout of ridings with traditionally high Liberal vote shares. 

As such, to perhaps grossly oversimplify, higher turnout = more Liberal seats.


Doug Ford has not done a terrible job; and Andrea Horwath has failed to convince anyone new to give her the Premier's chair. Del Duca has done a bad job at getting people to vote Liberal, but, it's unclear just how bad. This is why things depend on Turnout. There are roughly 250,000 voters across ontario debating if they are going to bother voting tomorrow, and the vast majority would vote Liberal. This is, very roughly, 2K voters per riding, with more in Liberal ridings. If none of them bother voting, the Liberals take perhaps a dozen seats, gaining next to nothing over the last election. If all of them bother voting, the Liberals hold the PC Party to a minority. 


So, what will turnout be?


My guess: moderate.

Other people doing projection's guess: low

This is why I have more Liberals winning than they do. 


As such, this is what my prognosis looks like:





You'll notice more dots. You may notice particular ridings, like Peterborough, or Lisa MacLeod's own riding, where I have perhaps controversial calls. This is due to the impact of the recent storm, which, I think may have a heavy impact on the PC vote. I also have all 3 of the larger "far right" candidates listed as possibilities. This is because I'm not certain that their voters are honest with pollsters, and so I have suspicions.


Regardless, I'm expecting a PC Majority, but, one that's smaller than many others are thinking for the reasons I've outlined. If turnout is low, expect a larger win, if it is high, a minority could be on the cards. 

Sunday, May 29, 2022

Ontario election prognosis

 I have a new prognosis (projection) for the ontario election. 






Not much to say about it, heavily based on math, with the vast majority of the work being shown via twitter posts. Will comment on it's meaning, before the election.

Sunday, May 22, 2022

Australia election results

 Just a quick numbers post; on the results of the Australian election, which are still being counted.


Current topline results from the ABC show the following:


72-ALP
52-L/NP
15-Others


but we can do better than that.


77 - 32.8% - Labor (Progressive)
58 - 35.7% - Coalition (Conservative)
8 - 2.9% - "Teal Independents" (Eco Capitalist)
4 - 11.9% - Greens (Green)
2 - 2.6% - Other Independents (One hard left, One right moderate)
1 - 0.4% - Katter (Rural Conservative)
1 - 0.3% - Centre Alliance (Moderate)
0 - 4.9% - One Nation (Nationalist)
0 - 4.2% - United Australia (Anti-Lockdown)
0 - 1.7% - Liberal Democrats (Libertarian)
0 - 0.2% - Jacquie Lambie Network (Populist, leans right)
0 - 2.4% - all others


This, I think, is a far more useful way to look at things. It includes the in-doubt seats (1 green, 5 labor, 6 coalition) and breaks the teal independents off from the remainder of the independents (interestingly, the teal flavor seems to have taken more votes than all other independents combined!) I went through the 22 seats they ran, and simply added the first round vote result to determine this. 

Senate, new grand totals, estimated:


32 - Coalition
26 - Labor
12 - Greens
2 - Jacquie Lambie Network
3 - One Nation
1 - United Australia
0 - "Teal Independents"


This makes the same assumptions that the above list for the House result does. Interestingly, the Teal Independents could still win a seat, pending how the count goes in the ACT. If so that seat would come from the Coalition. 

One thing you may notice is the Sensate would be split 36-36 for both the left and the right. If the count holds, it will be interesting to see how this plays out, even if not really unprecedented. 


Thursday, May 12, 2022

Election Roundup, early may

 In the Philippines, Bongbong Marcos has been elected as President, along with his running made, Sara Duterte. He's taken roughly 46% of the vote. His main opponent was the sitting Vice President, Leni Roberdo. She ran as an Independent, and took about 22% of the vote. The next closest candidate, Manny Pacquiao, took only about 5% of the vote. All of this is from unofficial tallies. 


Sara Duterte has been elected Vice President, with ~47%, slightly more than Marcos. Francis Pangilinan took ~13.5%, he was Roberdo's running mate. Tito Sotto is the one who really beat expectations, taking ~12% of the vote. He was the running mate of the 4th placed Presidential candidate. 

Sotto is a Conservative. Pangilinan is where we run into the first complexity in covering Philippine politics; family. Let's look at how this 'works'. 

For example, Incumbent President Rodrigo Duterte was part of Laban, but founded PFP. Bongbong Marcos backs PFP but both were supported by Lakas. Sara Duterte is running with Lakas, not PFP. This continues historically; Ferdinand Marcos, the dictator, was part of the Nationalist party, which is the same party his opponent Corazon Aquino, the opposition leader he had assassinated. In short, 'party' is not as important here as which 'side' you are on in terms of family disputes.

Knowing who are what "Lakas" is, thus is far less important than knowing which "side" people are on, and the major "side" that won here is "Marcos"

Bongbong Marcos is on the "Marcos" side, while people like Roberdo and especially Pangilinan are closer to the "Aquino" side. 


Meanwhile in Germany


The Schleswig-Holstein election, as mentioned, returned the governing CDU as the largest party. One seat short of a majority. By default, the party would want to reach out to the FDP, the Business-Liberal party. However, the local CDU leader may be a moderate, who might wish a coalition with another party. One interesting option is the SSW.

SSW is an ethnic minority party. In 1947, the party took 9.3% of the vote, and, in 1950, they took 5.5%. Between then and 2022, they never got over the 5% threshold. In 2022, they took 5.7% of the vote. 

As a minority party, the party wins seats regardless of the threshold. The party represents minority Danish interests, and has generally centrist liberal policies. 

If the SSW and CDU can come to an agreement, it could be an alternative coalition. The parties, however, have some distance between them on certain issues. 

It is always possible the CDU will try to sit with the SPD or the Greens for some reason, or, try to govern 1 seat short. Regardless, I am following things.


In Northern Ireland


There's no sign yet that a brand new agreement is in the works. As such, it may be most realistic to look for adjustments to the existing agreement, similar to how the Belfast Agreement upgraded the Good Friday Agreement. There's nothing new to update just yet, but I want to make clear I am following things, and will let you know if and when something develops. 


Elsewhere


In the UK, local elections were held. It is difficult to judge exactly what these things mean as only certain areas vote at certain times. Comparing this to the 2018 results (same seats), Labour continues to rise. It is in other years that the Conservatives do much better. 

It is far more useful to look outside England. Scotland saw the Tories down, losing ~60 seats, with all the other (major) parties gaining. Wales has a much more direct change, with the Tories losing ~85 seats and Labour taking ~65 of them. 

As always, I continue to monitor polls in various countries. There's nothing to update in Israel, Italy, or the republic of Ireland. 

In Australia, polls seem to think that a 54-46 split may be where things settle. This would result in a Labor government. 

Lastly, here in Ontario, I am following things. However, at this time, there's nothing much to comment on. I expect that by this time next week I will have a much clearer view on what may be happening. 



Sunday, May 8, 2022

Election results, Northern Ireland and more

 Full Northern Ireland results are in. 

27-SF
25-DUP
17-APNI
9-UUP
8-SDLP
4-others

With these results, there are 3 possible options.

1 - Return to the norm. This would see the basic structure of government outlined in the Good Friday Agreement. (AKA The "Agreement"). This simply means a new 5 party coalition, with a first minister and deputy first minister from Sf and the DUP respectively. 

2 - Remain broken. Before the election, there was no sitting executive. The DUP first minister had resigned. This, if it continued for some time (say, more than 6 months) could lead to more extensive negotiations. 

3 - A new agreement. This is what I expect. The parties, I think, are ready to talk now, and not wait. Exactly what will change remains to be seen, but I suspect the current double majority system will see an overhaul, if not be replaced by a qualified majority. I plan to address this further in a future post.


In Schleswig-Holstein the CDU appears to have been re-elected, with 34 of the 69 available seats, meaning it can drop a party from it's existing coalition with the FDP and Greens. The Greens took 14 seats, the SPD 12, the FDP 5, and the SSW took 4. I may expand more on this later.



Friday, May 6, 2022

Northern Ireland, early election results

 Lets start in Mid Ulster. On the first ballot, SF has gained 1 seat, that of it's leader, Michelle O'Neill. However they have two other candidates very close to the threshold, and, will all but certainly pass the threshold on transfers. More interesting, is the DUP, which is closer to the threshold, under 100 votes. My "projection" had the DUP losing this seat to the UUP. The UUP is far, far behind, behind the TUV even. This likely means the end result is, in terms of party seats won, the same as last time. 

In Strangford, where I expected the DUP to lose a seat to the Alliance, the Alliance has under-performed. Instead, the TUV looks set to gain that seat I expected to go to the Alliance instead. 

In East Belfast, the UUP has outperformed the TUV, and so, it looks like there will be no change in the party makeup here. 

In short; things are "chaotic" vs the simple party vote transfer that I did in my projection. Parties are up in one place, down in another. As such, I'm going to use these early results to make a new "projection"



edited to add: updated "projection"

27-SF
25-DUP
18-APNI
9-UUP
7-SDLP
4-others




Wednesday, May 4, 2022

Northern Ireland Election, "projection"

 I did some quick math, based on yesterdays post, to make a "projection" of how things may turn out.

East Londonderry, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Lagan Valley, and Belfast West, would see no change to the party representation of the 5 members they each send to the assembly. South Antrim also would see no change, but, only because the Alliance has failed to run a second candidate. If they'd chosen to do so, these numbers suggest they'd take a seat from the DUP. However, they did not do so, so, no change.


North Antrim may see the TUV take a seat from the DUP. However, pending TUV vote strength, there may end up being no change, but, a TUV gain is slightly more likely than not.

Belfast South is also only "likely" to see a chance, with the DUP likely losing a seat. If it does, the Alliance could take it, or, the UUP may, but, the chances are higher the Alliance does. 

These two changes would see the DUP down by 2, and the TUV and APNI up by 1, with an outside chance the TUV and UUP each gain 1 instead, or, the DUP simply retain both seats.

Belfast North is another place the DUP may lose a seat. However, the SDLP is also vulnerable. The Alliance will almost certainly win a seat here.

East Antrim, North Down, and Strangford both are nearly certain to see the DUP lose 1 seat each to the Alliance.

West Tyrone, Mid Ulster, and Newry and Armagh, are both near certainly going to see the DUP lose 1 seat each to the UUP, simply due to DUP vote weakness. 

Foyle is nearly certainly going to see the DUP lose a seat to PBP. 

The DUP is near certain to lose an East Belfast seat. the question is to whom. I have the TUV pegged as the likely winner of that seat, as the Alliance, which otherwise would win, already has 2 seats here.

South Down is also a near certain DUP loss, but this time it is the Alliance that is more likely to pick up the seat, over the UUP. 

Upper Bann and Belfast North are both near certain Alliance gains, but the question is, from who. most likely the DUP in both seats, but they could also take the seat from the SDLP. 


This would see the DUP lose 14 seats. APNI gain 8. UUP gain 3. TUV gain 2. and PBP gain 1. 


SF - 27
APNI - 16
DUP - 14
UUP - 13
SDLP - 12
TUV - 3
GRN - 2
PBP - 2
INDU - 1


This would be a major shift in politics in Northern Ireland. It remains to be seen if this is indeed how things will play out, or, if this over-estimates the number of seats the DUP will lose to the Alliance. 

Northern Ireland elections tomorrow.

 Just a quick post, where I'll detail polls for the coming NI election. 

Previous election vs most recent poll

28.1% - 18.2% - DUP
27.9% - 26.6% - SF
12.9% - 12.1% - UUP
11.9% - 10.5% - SDLP
9.1% - 18.2% - APNI
2.6% - 5.7% - TUV
2.3% - 2.9% - GRN
1.8% - 2.1% - PBP

I summarize this as follows:

SF, UUP, SDLP, GRN, and PBP are all, roughly, where they were last election. As such, in any quick 'rule of thumb' 'educated guesstimation' of an election prediction; you can expect them to maintain the same vote level in each constituency. 

TUV and APNI are up by double. Meaning in such a guesstimation you can expect their vote total to double in each constituency. 

DUP is down by a third. As such, you can guesstimate that in each constituency they will lose one third of their vote. 


Tuesday, April 26, 2022

French and Slovene elections

 Sorry for the late update; but regardless.


Emmanuel Macron, the incumbent President of France, has won re-election, with 58.5% of the vote vs his opponent Marine Le Pen, who took 41.5%. I want to examine this further, and will do so, in a future post about the upcoming legislative elections.


In Slovenia, a brand new pro-europe liberal party has won the elections, taking 41 of the 90 seats. In doing so, they've pushed all the other liberal parties out of the legislature. In the last legislature, the various liberal parties had 33 seats. The results are as follows:

41 - GS - 34.5% - Liberal, pro-europe (gain of 41 seats)
27 - SDS - 23.5% - Nationalist, anti-europe (gain of 2 seats)
8 - NSI - 6.9% - Christian Democrats, pro-europe (gain of 1 seat)
7 - SD - 6.7% - Social Democrat, pro-europe (loss of 3 seats)
5 - L - 4.4% - Socialist, anti-europe (loss of 4 seats)

The most likely coalition is between GS and SD. However, I personally would not rule out one between GS and NSI. NSI however may be tainted by being in the incumbent coalition. 



Wednesday, April 20, 2022

20APR2022 updates

 Nothing much new to update on. The final two French presidential candidates are the two that were expected, and the polls continue to say it is very roughly a 55-45 split. 

On the 24th, france will elect a president. 

On the same day, Slovenia votes. A new small-l liberal party is doing well in the polls.


In Italy, the Progressive Democrats (PD) and the far-right Brothers of Italy (FdI) are battling it out for the polling lead, with both parties at roughly 21.5%

FdI has potential allies. Lega is averaging about 17%. FI has about 8%. A newish party, pushing for Italy to leave the EU, has about 2% support. Combined this is roughly 48.5% for the right.

PD has potential allies as well, especially among smaller parties. Together, these 6 small parties, take roughly 13% of the vote. M5S may also sit with them, they are polling at about 13%. This puts the left on 47.5% of the vote. 

The left, however, has many more "working parts" to function. IE more parties, and parties that are further apart. 


Other upcoming elections:

May 5th, UK locals

May 8th, Schleswig-Holstein

May 9th, Philippines

May 15, North Rhine-Westphalia

May 15, Lebanon

May 18th, the UCP leadership review ballot in Alberta will be published. 

May 21st, Australia

June 2nd, Ontario election


Wednesday, April 6, 2022

Israeli government may fall; and more on Serbia

 A member of Yamina, PM Bennet's own party, has quit the coalition government. Idit Silman, who was the chairwoman of the governing coalition, will now sit with the opposition. This will mean the government loses its majority, and as such, may well fall. 

Should the government collapse and the parliament be dissolved, Lapid will become Prime Minister. I still think Lapid will never see the PM's chair during this term of Parliament, so I do not see this as likely. 

Gantz may jump to Bibi and put him back in office, either with Gantz as PM, or with Netanyahu returning.

I really don't see any other options beyond simply delaying things. IE instead of collapsing today, the government may collapse in May, or December. 

The last 5 polls show Bibi's opposition coalition, which won 52 seats last election, would win 58, 59, 57, 60, or 58 seats in a new election. 61 being needed for a majority. Alongside them would be between 4 and 7 members of Yamina, some, or most of whom, may be convinced to sit with Bibi. 



In Serbia, the government has failed to win a majority in Parliament. They would have needed 126 seats, and ended up winning only 120. There are many potential coalition partners; but if an agreement can be hammered out is another question. There is only one truly pro-west possibility, the green party "We Must", but, they have previously labeled Vucic (President and leader of the governing party) an authoritarian, and may be unwilling to sit with him. The main opposition, united serbia, would similarly have difficulty making an about-face to sit with the government. 

SPS is a potential option. They are the successor to Tito ad Milosevic's communist parties. The party is currently pro-EU. They were already in the pre-election government coalition. The only other options are two monarchist parties, or the new Oathkeepers party, a far right party. 

Monday, April 4, 2022

Hungary election results

I've got some better more detailed results for the Hungarian election. I've broken out the results for the opposition. The numbers show the seats won via the list + the constituencies won = the total seats won.

DK - 12 + 4 = 16 (+7)
MM - 6 + 4 = 10 (+10)
Jobbik - 9 + 0 = 9 (-8)
MSZP - 5 + 4 = 9 (-4)
PM - 3 + 4 = 7 (+2)
LMP - 3 + 2 = 5 (+-0)

Wikipedia has different numbers, however, I've added this up myself. It's possible I've made errors. 


The reason this result is so shocking is the polls.

The government's polling numbers in the 5 polls before the election were; 49%, 47%, 50%, 50%, and 49.3%. And the opposition 41%, 47%, 40%, 40%, and 46.5%. 

The final results were 53.1% for the government and 35.0% for the opposition. 

I expect this opposition coalition may well break up soon, I'll keep an eye on things as usual. 

Sunday, April 3, 2022

Elections in Hungary, and Serbia.

 In Hungary, the united opposition seems to have performed laughably bad. They've managed to gain 4 seats, going up from 52 to 56, while the government has gained 2 seats, going up from 133 to 135. The opposition may have taken as little as 35% of the vote. A far right party may have taken 7 seats. At this time, I don't know to whom the final seat has gone. The referendums however, seem to have failed. While all have taken over 90% of the vote cast, only 45% of voters cast ballots; which would render the results invalid. 

In Serbia, only half of the vote is counted, but the government seems to have won a majority, or, a minority that's only a few seats short (meaning a coalition would be relatively easy to form). Results will not be released until tomorrow. The President, who is of the government's party, however, has clearly been re-elected and has already declared victory. 

Friday, April 1, 2022

Ce blog deviendra uniquement français

Dès aujourd'hui, 1er avril, j'annonce que ce blog passe de la couverture en anglais à couverture uniquement en français. À partir d'aujourd'hui, 1er avril, vous trouverez toute la meuilleure couverture de la politique du monde entier. En date du 1er avril

Sunday, March 27, 2022

updates, + SPD wins Saarland election

 In the German state of Saarland, the SPD has won the election. Currently, with votes still being counted, they are at 26 of the 51 seats, a majority. It is possible they will retain that majority as counting continues, but it is also possible they'll fall below a majority. In the latter case, there are easy coalition options with the Greens or the FDP. 


Trends elsewhere continue as they have been, but, are starting to get closer to solid. In Italy, the FdI has lead in a number of polls. In Hungary, Orban's Fidesz party has started to slightly pull away from the opposition coalition. In Israel, Pro-Netanyahu parties are getting ever closer to polling a majority. In France, Le Pen has taken a clear 2nd place on the first ballot, while remaining at a loss to Macron on the second ballot.


I'm also looking at other places. In the Philippines, the Marcos-Duterte ticket appears to be polling over 50%, quite a feat when the next two closest tickets are polling at 20% and 10% respectively. They ticket's platform would see the existing policies under Duterte Sr continue. Elections take place May 9th

Serbia also appears set to re-elect its incumbent government. Elections there take place in April 3rd.

Lebanon, hopefully, votes May 15th. They've had elections be canceled in the past. There is no reliable polling, so it is unclear who stands to gain or lose, but the 2020 explosions will almost certainly have a major impact on the result.

Unless they want to hold separate House and Senate elections, Australia goes to the polls by May 21st. Labor has a massive lead in the 2PP vote according to polling. With a margin of up to 58%-42%, this could be an effective landslide. If this holds, it would be the largest margin of victory since the 70's, or possibly 60's. If the 58%-42% figure held, it would be the widest margin of victory since 1943. However, there is good reason to believe that things will tighten as the election draws closer, as, this has happened in every recent federal election in Australia. Still, I would not be surprised to see Labor alone win over 100 seats. The Pendulum suggest the Coalition could be reduced to 40 seats total. 

Lastly, Nepal will vote some time this year. Nepalese politics is complex. It has 3 communist parties, and it is unclear what exactly the difference between them is beyond the people who lead them and may dislike the other leaders on a personal level. 

Sunday, March 20, 2022

20MAR2022 updates

 A quick update on world politics.

In general, previously noted trends continue. 

Where things have 'changed', such as Brian Jean's by-election victory, the meaningful result of this, has yet to play out. 

The only major news update is the election in South Australia, which, due to the Ukraine crisis, I've not followed as close as I otherwise would have. Labor appears to have win a majority in the state. 

Beyond that, I wish to note upcoming elections.


27th of March has Saarland state-level elections. SPD lets set to finish in first.

3rd of April, Hungary votes. I will be covering that.

3rd of April, Serbia also votes. I will cover the results.

10th of April, Mexico holds a recall referendum on their president.

24th of April, Slovenia votes.

5th of May are local elections in parts of the UK. 

Wednesday, March 9, 2022

quick politics updates

 Elections are taking place in South Korea today. The right-wing candidate appears to have defeated the left-wing candidate for the Presidency, but counting continues, and the vote lead is small. 

I keep an eye on politics, as usual, around the world - I've yet to see any major changes in polling (outside Ukraine itself, and Russia) with the only notable trend being a 1% or 2% boost to incumbents in many western countries. 

That's all for now.

Sunday, March 6, 2022

Ukraine - Partitions becoming more clear

 Now that things are slightly more clear;



This seems to be what may be going on. Let me explain;

You may have seen Russian propaganda map suggesting Ukraine is not a real country, and is only a tiny part of modern Ukraine. These maps always have the pink region "Dnipro" as part of 'real' Ukraine. It is interesting that Russian military operations seem to not be interested in this area, despite it being economically strong. Russia may, thus, have 0 desire to annex this region.

If that's true, then they also are unwilling to annex "Central Ukraine", shown in blueish purple. This contrasts with areas around Sumy, shown in reddish purple, where Russian troops already are operating.

Kharkiv and Kherson also have Russian operations, while it looks like they want to take Odessa and area as well. 

Less likely to be taken are western areas. Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia are possible targets. Khmel Oblast was part of the USSR in the 1930s and 1920s, but, is currently more strongly tied to the most western Oblasts, which, were part of Poland (and Czechoslovakia and Romania) in the 20s and 30s. 


Of course this assumes a partition is the goal. That is becoming less and less likely as the Russian military invasion has slowed down. I will, however, continue to observe the situation. 

Monday, February 28, 2022

Ukraine - possible partitions

 This is part of a post I've been working on. I've been waiting for days for Putin to make this plans clear, but, clearly, this is not happening. As such, I'm going forward with the meat and potatoes of the post I was planning:




This map shows the various regions of Ukraine, as defined by me, for the purposes of this post. 

1 - Zakarpattia Oblast (County/Province). This Oblast is unique. Some Hungarians and Romanians live here, and this area was part of Czechoslovakia until WW2. It does not behave in patterns that match the rest of Ukraine politically; As such, I'm effectively excluding this Oblast from this discussion. 

2 - Lviv Oblast. Core of the "Pro-Europe" and Pro-West sentiment in Ukraine. It is, by far, much more pro-west than any other part of Ukraine.

3 - Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast. Along with its northern neighbor, part of the the Pro-West area of Ukraine.

4 - Ternopil Oblsat. This is the 3rd Pro-West area. While not as fanatical as Lviv, these 3 would likely never want to live under Russian rule. These 3 were all part of Galicia, part of Austria-Hungary, in WW1. 

5 - Crimea Oblast. This has been part of Russia since the 2014 annexation.

6 - Donetsk Oblast. Half of this Oblast has been ruled by the Pro-Russian "Donetsk Republic" since 2014.

7 - Luhansk Oblast. Half of this Oblast has been ruled by the Pro-Russian "Luhansk Republic" since 2014.

8 - This area is generally west leaning. 

9 - This area generally leans towards Pro-Russian policies.

10 - This area has swing between Pro-Western and Pro-Russian sentiments. 


If an honest, free, fair referendum had been held, in 2013, in Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, they may well have voted to join Russia, or, they may not have. The idea would have got at least 40% of the vote, however, in these areas. 

If a referendum were held in Lviv, Ternopil, and Ivano-Frankivsk, they likely would vote over 95% to join the EU. 



I will continue this post with the actual conclusion once it becomes clear what Putin is trying to do. I apologize for splitting this post in 3, but I can't for the life of me, figure out what Putin is up to.


Saturday, February 26, 2022

citation; Ukraine; east vs west

This is a pre-post; in advance of a post coming up, about Ukraine and the west vs east split. I wanted to get some citations for it. The citations basically are simply the past election maps. All of them. Votes for all candidates, in all elections. I've selected a few that make good examples and present them below:


2019 opposition (pro-russia) vote: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6f/%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BA%D0%BE_%D0%92%D0%B8%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B8_2019_%28%D0%86%29.png/1280px-%D0%91%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BA%D0%BE_%D0%92%D0%B8%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B8_2019_%28%D0%86%29.png


2010 yanukovich (pro-russia) vote: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/98/Yanukovych_2010_1%28PR%29.png


2010 election result: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/26/%D0%94%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80_2010_%D0%BF%D0%BE_%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%85-en.png/1280px-%D0%94%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80_2010_%D0%BF%D0%BE_%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%83%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%85-en.png


1991 opposition (pro-west) vote: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bf/%D0%A7%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%96%D0%BB_%D0%92._%D0%9C..PNG/1280px-%D0%A7%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%96%D0%BB_%D0%92._%D0%9C..PNG


1994 government (pro-russia) vote: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/48/%D0%9A%D1%83%D1%87%D0%BC%D0%B0_%D0%86%D0%86_%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80.PNG/1280px-%D0%9A%D1%83%D1%87%D0%BC%D0%B0_%D0%86%D0%86_%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80.PNG


2004 vote: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e1/Ukraine_Wahlen_2004.png


1999 opposition (pro-russia) vote: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9e/%D0%A1%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE_%D0%86%D0%86_%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80.PNG/1280px-%D0%A1%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE_%D0%86%D0%86_%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80.PNG


Wednesday, February 23, 2022

Russia invades Ukraine

 more to come with time. Invasion will likely be limited in scope. will update as more becomes available 

Tuesday, February 15, 2022

Important updates - Ottawa and Ukraine

 This is a short, but, important post.


Ukraine:

It is my educated estimation that Russia's original plan was as follows:

Step 1 - Hold training exercises. These would simulate a Russian attack on Ukraine. It would have all the parts needed to actually invade Ukraine, but, would not invade Ukraine.

Step 2 - Ukraine, fearful of an actual attack, and seeing that the glorious Russian army is able to crush their nation, becomes much softer in it's approach.

Step 3 - Glorious Mother Russia can then recognize (and later annex) Donetsk, as well as get all of Ukraine into the fold as a puppet nation after the next Ukraine election.


However, they did not expect the EU, NATO, and the USA to become involved.

Their little 'demonstration' to 'scare' Ukraine into 'compliance' has turned into a potential war involving Europe. 


This has backed Russia into a corner of sorts, and the only way out may be to actually invade Ukraine, with the hopes that it can be taken quickly enough that Russia can achieve it's objectives before the EU/US/NATO can respond. 


What Russia does remains to be seen

Ottawa:

Only one thing I want to mention here, and it's not even the use of the emergencies act. It's the "Battle of Billings Bridge". 

This "Battle" was simply anti-convoy citizens coming out to blockade the convoy.

Why is that important?

Because, instead of being Citizen vs Government, the demonstrations became Citizen vs Citizen.

There was no violence at said "battle", but, I fear the concept of "Citizen vs Citizen" will become much more commonplace in the coming decade or two, and in these future confrontations, in Canada and more so, elsewhere around the world; I do expect violence. "Mob Justice" will become "Mob vs Mob battles"

I hope I am wrong.

Sunday, February 13, 2022

Soft and Solid, impacts of the Ottawa demonstrations

 Call it a "Freedom Convoy" or an "Occupation Blockade", but the demonstrations in Ottawa have changed quite a lot, politically, in Canada.

A problem I'm seeing, is people are looking for places where they won't see that change; political polls.


This demonstration has not changed any Tories into Liberals or New Democrats into PPC members. What it has done, is made massive changes to the various groups that swing between these parties election after election. I want to go through them and examine this.


To those who are anti-vaxx, this has solidified any drift that mandates were having. We've seen people who have previously said they would never get vaccinated, get vaccinated. We will see much less of this going forward. Those who remain without shots are now much less likely to get them, regardless of any mandates. In fact, I'd suspect some who only have one shot, will decide that's all they need, and those with two, will decide against a booster. This may be a small share of the population - around 15% - but it will impact some vaccination statistics. Politically, it will solidify their position within their parties, be it the Conservatives or the PPC, with an important caveat; it's solidifying them as anti-vaxx politically. Should the Conservatives swing to become more appealing to anti-vaxx voters, this group will respond in kind.

To those who support mandates, this has also solidified their view. In particular, those who might lean right, now view the Conservatives as unacceptably right-wing due to their perceived anti-vaxx stance. These people will likely stay home and refuse to come out to vote, or, if they do vote, may back minor parties. This will reduce the maximum number of votes the Conservatives can access in the next election.

Those who have generally supported mandates, but who have been concerned about the harshness of some mandates, have been greatly softened. None of them are currently changing who they are voting for, but, future actions will see them move. This is why governments across Canada are moving to end restrictions. Not to satisfy the demonstrators, but to ensure that this group, the mushy middle, remains content. When this group is on the side of the restrictions, we have a clear 8-to-1 overwhelming majority supporting the status quo. When this group suddenly backs off, that clear overwhelming consensus turns into something closer to a 2-to-1 majority, which is far less able to build a true consensus. 

Those who have generally opposed mandates, but who have gone along with them, are also softened. Some are offended by the demonstrations, while others are questioning if they'll continue to follow the rules. In particular, they've become very sensitive to the actions of the political parties on these issues. They do want Covid to end and do trust vaccines and science, but don't want what they see as government over-reach. Until now they've been locked into whatever party they've happened to support as there was simply no alternative, but now, with parties moving and shifting about, reacting; they are liable to start moving and shifting as well, from where they currently are, to alternatives they are comfortable with, but that support their concerns about government powers. 


The previous election, and, previous culture debate, has this radically changed. This has gone from a united society with an opposing radical fringe, to one that is actually and truly divided. 


If you look at political polls, you'll see that the numbers have not changed. The context of those numbers, however, will no longer be the same. 

Friday, February 4, 2022

04FEB2022 updates

 We'll start small and move on to larger topics:


In France, Italy, Hungary, Israel, and Ireland, things basically remain unchanged. 

Northern Ireland has seen the first minister resign. I'll follow up on this in future posts, however, it's likely the lack of an a first minister will remain until the spring election.

Elections are coming up in March in the Saarland, a state of Germany, where the Social Democrats are leading the polls, and could see an SDP-Green government elected.

The state of South Australia is also holding elections in late March. 2PP polling suggests either no change or the most minor of changes; but, the polls are also close, 51%-49%. I'll be posting more on this as the election approaches.

Portugal held elections this past week. The ruling Socialists have gained seats, and appear to have nabbed the slimmest of majorities. This is the first majority since 1995, and the second since 1991. Other majorities include 1988, 1980, and 1979. These 6 majorities contrast with 11 minorities since the end of the dictatorship. 

Finally we get to politics here at home in Canada.

O'Toole is out as CPC leader. The big divide in the party is between more moderate members, and more extreme members. The right-wing has a massive advantage at the moment, and it is almost certain that the next leader will be more right-wing than O'Toole was. Poilievre and Lewis are two names that come up often. I'll be doing many posts on this as the tories pick a new leader. 

I also have an eye on Alberta, and Ontario, to see how these recent trucker protests will impact these governments. 


Sunday, January 23, 2022

Ukraine

 It's been brought to my attention that many of you may have questions about Ukraine. I've quickly slapped a map together to help do a quick rundown





This is Ukraine. 

You'll notice I've cut off Crimea. With good reason. Russia will effectively never this up. It is simply too important for them. Crimea is lost. Unless we go marching in, with guns, and by we I mean the west; Crimea stays Russian.

The rest of Ukraine, however, is less certain. Currently, pro-Russian rebels hold the area to the east of the dark red line. 

The dark blue line represents the most pro-west part of Ukraine. Russia would be happy of this part of the country just up and decided to leave, as, it would result in a Ukraine that shifts towards Russia due to the loss of this Pro-West area. 

The light red line shows the area that would strategically assist Russia in their current goals. This would cut off the sea as Azov, provide additional access to Crimea, and hand over important centres like Kharkiv to the Russians, or, pro-Russian rebels. This city is famous under its russian name, Kharkov, as the site of various WW2 battles. 

The light blue line somewhat follows the parts of Ukraine gained after WW2. It also is more pro-west than the rest of the nation.

The purple line is the traditional divide in Ukraine between pro-west and pro-russian political forces. 


That's the intro.


Russia wants Ukraine to be pro-Russia. That's the core of everything they do. The problem is that the capture of Crimea, and especially the civil war in the east (the Donbass area) have soured Ukrainians towards Russia. As such, it is likely they are more willing than usual to settle for some kind of partition; where their rebels (called New Russia) would take everything east of the purple line. Russia would still, of course, want all of Ukraine, but, this might be the line they have in mind with their current stunts. 

They'd love, of course, to somehow push the west back to one of the blue lines, and have the rest of Ukraine be a happy, obedient, puppet state. This, however, does not seem likely. 

How the current situation will resolve itself is unclear. My best guess is the rebels will rise again due to Russian support; and smash into the rest of Ukraine. When the Rebels and Ukraine sign their ceasefire, probably after only a few weeks of fighting, the border will just so happen to fall roughly along that line, with the US only implementing temporary and limited sanctions. Russia will then continue to try to "convince" Ukraine to come on over, but the 'current' crisis, which started in 2014, will be over, and things will go "cold" in the area. 

There are other possibilities. Any such renewed war might actually see Ukraine wipe out the rebels. This would be a massive embarrassment for Putin. the Rebels also could push all the way to the purple line. A Coup could be organized without the need to reignite the civil war. That coup could fail, or, succeed. Russia could openly march into rebel held areas saying the rebels asked it. If that happens, it could lead to a straight up war between Ukraine and Russia. If that happens, either side could win or lose, but, its very much likely the Russians would steamroll the Ukrainians. In such a war, Europe could get involved, possibly with declarations of war. This could literally see Russia at war with Poland, Italy, France, Germany, and even other NATO countries, such as the UK. The worst case scenario would be the US also declares war, but, I really can not see this as a likely possibility. 


The only thing I would rule out, right now, is any involvement of nuclear weapons. If that changes, I'll let you know.

Tuesday, January 18, 2022

18JAN2022 updates

 Only one real update; the Serbian referendum, which passed.

It passed 60-40, however, the more interesting thing, is the 30% turnout. 

Serbia recently changed its laws to allow for the passage of referenda without a 50% turnout.

These are the facts; however, what is more interesting to me, is the 50% turnout threshold that many countries have.

This is where we veer off the usual fact based talk and get into more opinion based talk; but, why do such things even exist?

The answer is simple enough; to ensure that they people really want change. However; would people simply not be able to vote "no" if they did not want change?

Why are we assuming those who did not turn out are just as opposed as those who vote no?

In my opinion, such rules are silly. If you want turnout, you should simply combine two laws; first, mandatory voting, and secondly, a none-of-the-above option. This allows people to send whatever message they wish. 

Regardless, the referendum in Serbia has passed, and as such, Serbian laws will move more in line with laws in the EU surrounding judicial issues. 

Tuesday, January 11, 2022

11JAN2022 updates

 Not much to update. A state in Venezuela held elections won by the opposition. I am not a fan of the ruling party in the country, but actually counting the votes (and thus allowing the 'other guys' to win) is something I do support. Not much else to say about this at this time.


I've added new bookmarks to check regularly. I already regularly check on polls in Israel, Italy, Hungary, and France (2nd round, president). I've now added both Ireland and Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein is in an excellent position to win both. 

In Ireland, SF sits around 32%, while FG is at about 22%, and FF around 18%. No other party has more than 5% of the vote. For reference, in the last election, SF took 25%, while FF took 22% and FG took 21%. In short, this means SF can be expected to gain seats. One projection for December 2021 has SF on 63 seats, FG on 40, and FF on 35, with 24 others. 


Meanwhile in Northern Ireland, SF leads with 24%. This is down from 28% in the last assembly election. The DUP, which also took 28%, but slightly more votes, is polling far down at near 18%. The why is easy to see, the TUV is up to a whopping 11%. The party is a far more extreme version of the DUP, and on these numbers, could elect a dozen or more members. The non-sectarian Alliance Party of Northern Ireland is also up, at about 15%. Meanwhile the SDLP and UUP, and most of the smaller parties, sit roughly where they were last election. 

Elections in Ireland, in general, both in the north and south, are hard to project. If I had to make an utter mathless guess, I'd say SF could take 24 seats, and have a gap on the next party; which I suspect to still be the DUP, at 15. The TUV and APNI could each take 12, and the SDLP and UUP could also each take 12. The remaining 3 seats would be taken by smaller parties. If this came to pass, the Unionists would hold 39 seats, down from 41, while the Nationalists would hold 36, down from 39. 15 non-sectarian MLAs would set a record; and with the TUV in such a strong position (the party opposes the current way the assembly is structured, with its sectarian based co first ministry) we may be approaching a nexus point for NI; where they will need to make a decision on their long term future. 

I, for one, could see 6 party talks (SF, SDLP, APNI, DUP, UUP, TUV) take place. If they come to an agreement, which is doubtful, it could become the new way politics are done in NI. If not, it may come down to a referendum on the status of NI, one in which joining Ireland is actually a possible result. In such a result, I've put together a very rough guesstimation of a possible first election in a re-unified Ireland, based on current polls (which itself is problematic). This would see SF take 36%, boosted by a successful reunification, with FF and FG both tie at 13%. The 5 small parties would each take about 5% of the vote, with the 6th, PBP, suffering from the high SF vote, and not clearing 1%. The 5 smaller parties would be the Greens, Labour, the Alliance (which would be a vehicle for NI voters who are 'iffy' about reunification), and the two "Loyalist" parties, the Ulster Loyalists, a successor to the UUP, and the Traditional Democratic Loyalists, a successor to the TUV and much of the DUP. I could see the Ulster Loyalists sitting in the Dail, but the TDL likely would not, at least, not for the first session, and/or at least not quietly. 

All of this, of course, is just guesswork and playing around with potential future history.