Friday, May 6, 2022

Northern Ireland, early election results

 Lets start in Mid Ulster. On the first ballot, SF has gained 1 seat, that of it's leader, Michelle O'Neill. However they have two other candidates very close to the threshold, and, will all but certainly pass the threshold on transfers. More interesting, is the DUP, which is closer to the threshold, under 100 votes. My "projection" had the DUP losing this seat to the UUP. The UUP is far, far behind, behind the TUV even. This likely means the end result is, in terms of party seats won, the same as last time. 

In Strangford, where I expected the DUP to lose a seat to the Alliance, the Alliance has under-performed. Instead, the TUV looks set to gain that seat I expected to go to the Alliance instead. 

In East Belfast, the UUP has outperformed the TUV, and so, it looks like there will be no change in the party makeup here. 

In short; things are "chaotic" vs the simple party vote transfer that I did in my projection. Parties are up in one place, down in another. As such, I'm going to use these early results to make a new "projection"

edited to add: updated "projection"


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