Wednesday, May 4, 2022

Northern Ireland elections tomorrow.

 Just a quick post, where I'll detail polls for the coming NI election. 

Previous election vs most recent poll

28.1% - 18.2% - DUP
27.9% - 26.6% - SF
12.9% - 12.1% - UUP
11.9% - 10.5% - SDLP
9.1% - 18.2% - APNI
2.6% - 5.7% - TUV
2.3% - 2.9% - GRN
1.8% - 2.1% - PBP

I summarize this as follows:

SF, UUP, SDLP, GRN, and PBP are all, roughly, where they were last election. As such, in any quick 'rule of thumb' 'educated guesstimation' of an election prediction; you can expect them to maintain the same vote level in each constituency. 

TUV and APNI are up by double. Meaning in such a guesstimation you can expect their vote total to double in each constituency. 

DUP is down by a third. As such, you can guesstimate that in each constituency they will lose one third of their vote. 


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