Wednesday, May 4, 2022

Northern Ireland Election, "projection"

 I did some quick math, based on yesterdays post, to make a "projection" of how things may turn out.

East Londonderry, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Lagan Valley, and Belfast West, would see no change to the party representation of the 5 members they each send to the assembly. South Antrim also would see no change, but, only because the Alliance has failed to run a second candidate. If they'd chosen to do so, these numbers suggest they'd take a seat from the DUP. However, they did not do so, so, no change.

North Antrim may see the TUV take a seat from the DUP. However, pending TUV vote strength, there may end up being no change, but, a TUV gain is slightly more likely than not.

Belfast South is also only "likely" to see a chance, with the DUP likely losing a seat. If it does, the Alliance could take it, or, the UUP may, but, the chances are higher the Alliance does. 

These two changes would see the DUP down by 2, and the TUV and APNI up by 1, with an outside chance the TUV and UUP each gain 1 instead, or, the DUP simply retain both seats.

Belfast North is another place the DUP may lose a seat. However, the SDLP is also vulnerable. The Alliance will almost certainly win a seat here.

East Antrim, North Down, and Strangford both are nearly certain to see the DUP lose 1 seat each to the Alliance.

West Tyrone, Mid Ulster, and Newry and Armagh, are both near certainly going to see the DUP lose 1 seat each to the UUP, simply due to DUP vote weakness. 

Foyle is nearly certainly going to see the DUP lose a seat to PBP. 

The DUP is near certain to lose an East Belfast seat. the question is to whom. I have the TUV pegged as the likely winner of that seat, as the Alliance, which otherwise would win, already has 2 seats here.

South Down is also a near certain DUP loss, but this time it is the Alliance that is more likely to pick up the seat, over the UUP. 

Upper Bann and Belfast North are both near certain Alliance gains, but the question is, from who. most likely the DUP in both seats, but they could also take the seat from the SDLP. 

This would see the DUP lose 14 seats. APNI gain 8. UUP gain 3. TUV gain 2. and PBP gain 1. 

SF - 27
APNI - 16
DUP - 14
UUP - 13
SDLP - 12
TUV - 3
GRN - 2
PBP - 2
INDU - 1

This would be a major shift in politics in Northern Ireland. It remains to be seen if this is indeed how things will play out, or, if this over-estimates the number of seats the DUP will lose to the Alliance. 

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