Monday, October 31, 2022

Israeli elections tomorrow; one possible result

 Below, I've created a scenario that is possible. I will caution, the scenario is not likely. I don't possess all the information I'd need to make a likely scenario. Instead, I've put together some core assumptions, and, created the below:

28 Likud

16 Nationalists

16 Orthodox

30 Lapid

9 Gantz

5 Lieberman

4 Labor

4 Meretz

4 Hadash

4 Ra'am

Sorted by grouping, you can see that pro-Bibi parties would take exactly 16 seats. This is Likud, the Otzma-Zionist alliance (IE the Nationalists), and a combo of Shas and the UTJ (IE the 2 Orthodox parties)

Anti-Bibi has Lapid's Yesh Atid taking 30 seats, while the parties lead by Gantz (9) and Lieberman (5) do worse. Labor and Meretz take 4 each.

Lastly, both Hadash (technically, a Hadash-Tibi alliance, unlikely to back either side for government) take 4 seats, while Ra'am (who is keen on sitting in any government they can) also take 4.

The assumptions I've made are as follows:

Likud will continue it's late election trend of bleeding votes, losing them to it's ally parties. The Nationalists will thus take a whopping 16 seats, as will the two Orthodox parties when combined. This happens because of concerns Bibi will invite Gantz back into government.

Meanwhile on the progressive side of the ledger, the opposite happens. Voters worried that Gantz or even Labor could be co-opted to join a pro-Bibi coalition, switch to Yesh Atid and vote for Lapid instead, vaulting the party to 30 seats. 

Otherwise, parties generally take a number of seats that is indicated by their polling average. 

This means Lapid will have the first crack at forming a new government. 

This is where some key assumptions, perhaps absurd assumptions, occur.

Lapid wants to be PM. However, that is not his primary desire. His primary desire is that Bibi does not become PM. 

Bibi wants to become PM, but his party, by now, would just want to return to government. Bibi knows this. 

Gantz also yearns for the office of PM. 

As such. Absurdly. 

Gantz will become PM.

This would mean a Yesh Atid-Likud-Gantz coalition government. 

This is not likely to occur whatsoever. 

However. I've decided it's what I'm going to "predict". 

Sunday, October 23, 2022

Sunak, Johnson, and Mordaunt. What it means if they get 100 MPs.

 Lets look at what happens in the tory leadership if 1, 2, or 3 of them get 100 MPs.

Only Sunak does:

Sunak supposedly already has 100 MPs. The ideal situation, the 'best' way for the party to move forward, the most stable thing they can do for the economy; is let this pass. This would be the #1 ideal scenario for the party right now.

Only Johnson does:

This would likely mean either Sunak has withdrawn, or, his backers have switched to Johnson. Unlikely, but, possible.

Only Mordaunt does:

This is what she's hoping for. Her campaign makes 0 sense otherwise. Her argument seems to be implying "Sunak and Johnson have to much bad blood and will not accept the other as leader, so, make me leader instead." I can't see this happening.

Sunak and Johnson do:

This seems the most likely as of the time of writing (10am in Toronto/NYC, [3pm in England] on 23OCT2022). This means we'd go straight to a members vote. I can't see Johnson winning the members vote against Sunak. However. There is a way for him to win, but, that would be another post for another time. (IE monday)

Sunak and Mordaunt, or, Johnson and Mordaunt:

Extremely unlikely. However, it this does somehow happen, Mordaunt may well win the members vote. Frankly, with Sunak having so much support by now, the only way Mordaunt beats him with members is by a 'unfortunate' campaign. Should this come to pass I'll detail this in greater detail with yet another post.

All 3 get 100 MPs:

ahahahahaha. oh god. This would be far worse than the 0 MP option from my last post! See below for what this would imply

Somehow, none of them do:

After Sunak has 100 public backers lined up, for him to fail to actually get their support would not just be a disaster for him, but, in this event, where nobody gets 100, would be far, far more damaging than if nobody even reached 100. 

This, as would the option where all 3 obtain the quota, would mean one thing and one thing alone: The problem isn't the tory leader, it's the tory MPs. A party so deeply, deeply divided can not properly govern. 

For their own sake, I hope tory MPs are smart enough to realize this, because unless you want your party to be in 4th place in seat count in the commons after the next election, you do not want either of these things to happen.

Friday, October 21, 2022

how the next UK conservative leader will be selected

 In order to make things clear, I'm going to be asking "What if X people get the support of 100 MPs" and answer the question individually from there.

What if 4 people (or more) get the support of 100 MPs

Given that the party has under 400 MPs, this is not possible without some kind of mass defection to the party. As such, we will move on.

What if 3 people get the support of 100 MPs

This would mean that MP's get exactly one round of voting for these candidates. Whomever happens to get the fewest MPs supporting them would be dropped. Once two remain...

What if 2 people get the support of 100 MPs

If this happens, you skip right to the members vote. Members will vote, online, for whom they want to be leader. The person who obtains the most valid votes, wins. Questions remain how members who are offline (IE the elderly and poor) will be able to participate. The vote result is announced next Friday (the 28th of October 2022) and, shortly after the time of said result, (an hour?) the winner becomes Prime Minister

What if 1 person gets the support of 100 MPs

They become Prime Minister on Monday. (Oct 24th)

What if 0 people get the support of 100 MPs

Ahahahahaha. I'd laugh for starters. This would, however, be an utter disaster for the party. Not sure how they'd recover if this actually plays out. MPs would likely be desperate enough to back someone they hate just to ensure this does not happen. In short, the party may literally break apart if this happens.

Tuesday, October 4, 2022

Quebec election summary

The Liberals lost 3 seats on the Island of Montreal.

The CAQ gained 13 seats from the remainder of Quebec.

QS is second most popular party.

PQ loses party status.

Conservatives fail to win a seat.

90 - CAQ - 41.0%
21 - PLQ - 14.4% 
11 - QS  -  15.4%  
03 - PQ  -  14.6% 
00 - PCQ - 12.9%