Sunday, March 6, 2022

Ukraine - Partitions becoming more clear

 Now that things are slightly more clear;

This seems to be what may be going on. Let me explain;

You may have seen Russian propaganda map suggesting Ukraine is not a real country, and is only a tiny part of modern Ukraine. These maps always have the pink region "Dnipro" as part of 'real' Ukraine. It is interesting that Russian military operations seem to not be interested in this area, despite it being economically strong. Russia may, thus, have 0 desire to annex this region.

If that's true, then they also are unwilling to annex "Central Ukraine", shown in blueish purple. This contrasts with areas around Sumy, shown in reddish purple, where Russian troops already are operating.

Kharkiv and Kherson also have Russian operations, while it looks like they want to take Odessa and area as well. 

Less likely to be taken are western areas. Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia are possible targets. Khmel Oblast was part of the USSR in the 1930s and 1920s, but, is currently more strongly tied to the most western Oblasts, which, were part of Poland (and Czechoslovakia and Romania) in the 20s and 30s. 

Of course this assumes a partition is the goal. That is becoming less and less likely as the Russian military invasion has slowed down. I will, however, continue to observe the situation. 

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