Monday, May 27, 2019

Belgian election results

I'm working on a post about the euro elections, until then, I've made this table while experimenting with ways to share the results of the Belgian election.

The two things to know to make sense of this, is that Belgium has two powerful regional parliaments, one for the Francophone Walloonia, and one for the Flemish Flanders. Additionally, its parties are nearly all split by language, meaning there is no single "liberal party" but a French "liberal party" and a Flemish "liberal party". With this in mind, the above graphic should make sense.

Friday, May 24, 2019

Danish Election - Looking at it as I do

As is probably clear by now, I'm on a bit of a downswing from posting; but I thought I'd share something I normally do not post:

This is two images that I've cropped together and added some colour to.

On the top are the first 5 polls of the year, on the bottom are the 5 most recent ones.

You can see that the "O" party has fallen quite far, from an average of around 17.5% to an average of closer to 11%.

I've coloured in the background of each party tag in the colour of the 'alliance' they belong to; blue means more right-wing while red means more left-wing. I've also added arrows in red and green to show direction and size of movement.

So, why don't I normally show this? Cause this is just for me. I do this so I can understand what is going on. Its why its a bit sloppy; its for me; but I decided to share it rather than posting nothing today.

the "long story short" is the left/red alliance is rocketing to a victory 55%-45%.

WHY is "O" falling, and what is that party?

I don't know. I've not looked into it yet. I do things like this to know what I should look into for my post - and I will be making one about Denmark.

If I recall, this is the peoples party, and they are the big anti-immigration party. As to why they've fallen my guess is a scandal. That being said, I'm not certain. I am fairly sure this is the anti-immigration party, but for some reason I think their name may be the Liberals.

This is where I begin when I write posts. It is from here I expand my knowledge and look into things so that I can relate the information to all of you in a conscience and easy to understand manner.

Sunday, May 19, 2019

Australia election results

Still possible for seats to switch, but, currently, the results are as follows:

18 - 16 - L/NP (34)
14 - 13 - ALP (27)
6 - 3 - GRN (9)
0 - 2 - CA (2)
1 - 1 - ONP (2)
0 - 1 - AC (1)
1 - 0 - JLN (1)

summary results:
34 - Coalition
27 - Labor
9 - Greens
6 - Others (all either centrist, or right-wing)

76 - L/NP
68 - ALP
1 - GRN
5 - OTH

full results:
68 - ALP - 33.9%
44 - LIB - 27.7%
1 - GRN - 10.0%
23 - LNP - 8.5%
10 - NAT - 4.9%
3 - IND - 3.5%
0 - UAP - 3.4%
0 - ONP - 3.0%
1 - KAP - 0.5%
1 - CA - 0.3%
0 - OTH - 4.3%

Friday, May 17, 2019

Follow me on twitter!

Australia's election is under 8 hours away; and if you want to follow along as I discuss it, you can (and, by now really should) follow me on twitter.

Thursday, May 16, 2019

Sunday, May 12, 2019

Italy, some interesting movements

I want to start by first going over some things I've said in the past about Italy.

In February, I posted this image

and said, quote 

until the gap between PD and M5S gets smaller, nothing has actually "changed"

In another post I asked

When will M5S fall below PD, or, will it stop before it even reaches that level; if it does fall below them does M5S vanish?
and at my last update

Italy: The bottom has fallen out from under M5S and they've dropped to PD levels. This comes as Lega numbers are stable, causing a drop for the combined support for the governing parties. The main impact of this trend is the increasing likelihood that in the next election, the League and its jr ally, the various Conservative parties (Berlusconi leads the main one) could win a majority.
Since then I've noticed a poll trend that's caught my eye.

First, let me share the polling graphic

Now lets focus on just the recent polls by stretching this out

And since that is such a terrible mess, let me show you what this looks like, to me.

Rather than plunging through PD support on its way to zero, M5S support has stabilized right at or slightly above PD. Beyond that, in the past three weeks, LN has dropped about 2 point in the polls while both PD and M5S are up a point. This is what's caught my attention.

What is causing this and if it will continue will remain to be seen, but I certainly do find this of note and interesting. 

Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Another newfoundland update

Been doing some reading about who the various local candidates are for the various parties and other things.

Saturday, May 4, 2019

Northern Ireland local election results map

Here are the results presented in a way that you've probably never seen them before:

There are still 6 seats in Belfast that have yet to produce final results; but of them, two are obvious; with one going to SF and the other to the DUP. As such the final results are below:

121 DUP (x)
104 SF (x)
75 UUP (xx)
9 OTH (xx)
24 IND

you'll notice the six X's, they indicate the possible winners of the last 4 seats. The UUP for example might win up to two of them, while the DUP, or SF, could only win one each; and, of course, as there are 6 slots for 4 people, might not win any!

I'll be posting more on the election later on.

England Local Elections

Local elections have now completed counting in England. Some areas - such as London or Cornwall - did not have local elections this year, but much of England did. These figures are only for those areas that held general elections on the 2nd.

Results are as follows.
Results Party (Seats gained or lost) [Seats 'last time'] {pop vote}

3562 CON (-1334) [4896] {28%}
2023 LAB (-82) [2105] {28%}
1350 L-D (+703) [647] {19%}
265 GRN (+194) [71]
31 UKIP (-145) [176]
1179 IND (+ 662) [517]

Note that "seats last time" is simply derived from the seats this time, with the seats gained or lost removed or added back. Since some councils were merged or changed sizes, this does not equal the actual number of councillors elected in 2015. I'm showing these numbers to help you get a grasp of how drastically some parties moved. I've also included popular vote figures where available.

Note that I've included the 15 seats won by "smaller parties" in with the Independents.

Lastly, note as well that the figures reported are a bit weird. I merged the "Residents Association" grouping with "Independents" as a number of "Independent Groups" were included in there as well. My understanding, and opinion, is that a "Residents Association" just a group of Independents, and thus, identical to an "Independent Group" regardless of what name it uses. Some, including the BBC, apparently felt otherwise. As such, I combined the two for these figures to reduce confusion. If and when possible, I will separate these out into two groups; Groups and Individuals, to show the seat totals for each.

As I understand things, and my opinion is; a "Group of Independents" be it under the name "Residents Association" or "Free Voters" are Political Parties, equal to any other political party, and simply have chosen a geographic limitation for themselves (IE their council area and no more) and/or limitations on free voting in their various assemblies and legislatures. They are thus distinct and different from true "Independents" who run on no common slate, and stand for themselves, and their on records alone.

Friday, May 3, 2019

Aontú wins local seat in Northern Ireland

The big results post will have to wait until tomorrow, but of note is that Aontú, a right-wing republican party promoting the unification of Ireland, has won a local seat.

Most republican and nationalist parties in Northern Ireland lean to the left, and most Unionist parties lean to the right, with only the PUP (Progressive Unionist Party) leaning to the left.

This now gives people a wider range of options to vote for at election time. It does not, however, mark a sea change, as, this is 1 seat out of over 400.

UK local elections update

Counting is proceeding slowly, which is normal. The current trends are that the Conservatives are losing quite a few seats, but with them winning the largest share by far in the last election, they also have the most to lose. UKIP is losing a massive percentage of their seats, while the Greens are increasing their seat count significantly. The Liberal Democrats meanwhile look set to double their total, while Labour is down in some of the specific areas they've traditionally done well in.

The biggest winners so far are the Independents, either separately, are in unions such as Residents' Associations.

All of this, however, is from England.

Northern Ireland results are slow to come in, and, as I wish to fully detail them, I will wait for more results before making a post on them.

Wednesday, May 1, 2019

UK local elections tomorrow

As I've noted previously, my personal 'drive' towards politics comes in waves, I do not think it will be surprising to learn I'm in a bit of a lull right now. Otherwise, this would not have snuck up on me the way it has. Tomorrow, is the election for local authorities in the UK.

Unlike Canada, the UK has no "provinces", and as such, county level government has much more power than any equivalent here. Along with roughly 2/3rds of England, all of Northern Ireland is voting tomorrow. With no assembly in Stormont, the local elections are of greater importance.

I will be covering the results in these elections across Northern Ireland, as well as some of the England results, tomorrow.