Sunday, March 27, 2022

updates, + SPD wins Saarland election

 In the German state of Saarland, the SPD has won the election. Currently, with votes still being counted, they are at 26 of the 51 seats, a majority. It is possible they will retain that majority as counting continues, but it is also possible they'll fall below a majority. In the latter case, there are easy coalition options with the Greens or the FDP. 

Trends elsewhere continue as they have been, but, are starting to get closer to solid. In Italy, the FdI has lead in a number of polls. In Hungary, Orban's Fidesz party has started to slightly pull away from the opposition coalition. In Israel, Pro-Netanyahu parties are getting ever closer to polling a majority. In France, Le Pen has taken a clear 2nd place on the first ballot, while remaining at a loss to Macron on the second ballot.

I'm also looking at other places. In the Philippines, the Marcos-Duterte ticket appears to be polling over 50%, quite a feat when the next two closest tickets are polling at 20% and 10% respectively. They ticket's platform would see the existing policies under Duterte Sr continue. Elections take place May 9th

Serbia also appears set to re-elect its incumbent government. Elections there take place in April 3rd.

Lebanon, hopefully, votes May 15th. They've had elections be canceled in the past. There is no reliable polling, so it is unclear who stands to gain or lose, but the 2020 explosions will almost certainly have a major impact on the result.

Unless they want to hold separate House and Senate elections, Australia goes to the polls by May 21st. Labor has a massive lead in the 2PP vote according to polling. With a margin of up to 58%-42%, this could be an effective landslide. If this holds, it would be the largest margin of victory since the 70's, or possibly 60's. If the 58%-42% figure held, it would be the widest margin of victory since 1943. However, there is good reason to believe that things will tighten as the election draws closer, as, this has happened in every recent federal election in Australia. Still, I would not be surprised to see Labor alone win over 100 seats. The Pendulum suggest the Coalition could be reduced to 40 seats total. 

Lastly, Nepal will vote some time this year. Nepalese politics is complex. It has 3 communist parties, and it is unclear what exactly the difference between them is beyond the people who lead them and may dislike the other leaders on a personal level. 

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