Tuesday, November 30, 2021

30NOV2021 updates

 We are into the winter doldrums for politics, but there are a few minor updates.

The czech and icelandic coalitions are now in place. 


I've also run some quick numbers for Italy, and the basic poll average (in terms of seats potentially won at the next election) is as follows:


85 PD (progressive) 
82 FdI (neo-nationalist) 
79 Lega (trump-like) 
64 M5S (left populist) 
32 FI (conservative) 
15 Az (left liberal) 
11 IV (liberal) 
8 EV (green) 
7 A1 (social democrat) 
7 SI (socialist) 
7 +Eu (euro liberal) 
3 CI (moderate)


Lastly, Japan's CDP has picked a new leader. 

Izumi Kenta has won. Mr. Izumi was the furthest 'right' of all the candidates, having stuck with Kibo and the DPP until the final merger. This may indicate a willingness to re-unite and heal the party. 



Tuesday, November 23, 2021

23NOV2021 updates

 Not much new to report. Germany's coalition is solidifying, The Czech coalition gets sworn in, in a few days. Iceland's coalition is finalizing the details. 

Perhaps the most report worthy thing is that Japan's CDP, its main opposition, is electing a new leader, and the 4 main candidates have emerged. The best way to classify them would be by how they reacted to the party split in the last election. Nishimura stayed with the party. Osaka became an independent. Ogawa became an joined Kibo. Izumi joined the DPP. No polls yet indicate how popular any of them are. 

Monday, November 15, 2021

15NOV2021 update

 The only major update today is the Bulgarian election. 

Results are not complete yet, but it appears that the results will be as follows:

66 - PP (anti-corruption)
59 - GERB (conservative)
33 - DPS (liberal, minority)
27 - BSP (social democratic)
25 - ITN (anti-corruption)
16 - DB (anti-corruption)
13 - Rev (nationalist)

This gives 108 seats for the anti-corruption parties, 92 for the two most traditional parties, 27 for the social democrats, and 13 for the nationalists. 

I want to contrast this with past election results:



I'll try to analyze this more in future posts; but for now, I will say that its quite possible we'll finally get a government this time. PP and DB want one. BSP is also seemingly willing to support them, and, PP and DB seem willing to allow that. This would be only a dozen or so seats short of a majority. It is quite possible that they could try to run this as a minority. However, ITN may support them. I will want to speak about ITN in my next post (when final results are out).

For now, this is all. 

Sunday, November 7, 2021

07NOV2021 updates

 The Czech situation has resolved, with the President able to speak from the hospital. He's confirmed he will appoint a SPOLU-PaS coalition, which, will confirm it's new government next week. As such, I've decided to stop following the government formation unless something changes. 


Bulgarian polls have settled down. Currently, polls suggest the following:

65 GERB (conservative)
45 BSP (socialist)
41 PP (anti-corruption)
36 ITN (anti-corruption)
27 DPS (liberal and minority)
25 DB (anti-corruption)

How that would turn into any potential government coalition remains to be seen. 


In South Africa, municipal elections give a hint at what the next election might look like. In particular, this is a rough estimate. Note, the number in brackets indicate the result in the last election.

201 ANC (230)
95 DA (84)
45 EFF (34)
25 IFP (14)
10 FFP (10)
10 ASA (0)
14 other (18)

If this plays out, the ANC will be sitting on a knife edge of a majority. 



Tuesday, November 2, 2021

02NOV2021 updates

 Not much to update. We did get one poll in Israel showing Yamina below the threshold, but that is an outlier. There is an election coming up on the 7th in Montreal, but I've not been following it very close. Otherwise, the only new updates are from Japan.


Japan has re-elected its current government. 

The LDP, under new leader, Kishida Fumio, took a left turn and ran as a far more moderate party than it had under Abe Shinzo. This is reflected in the poor results for the left-wing CDP and strong results for the right-wing Ishin party. 

Note that Japan has a parallel system. this means voters cast two ballots, one for their local candidate, and one for the party. As such, you'll see two popular vote figures below, one for the proportional seats, and one for the single-member seats.

The results were as follows:

261 - LDP - 72 PR 34.7% - 189 Dist 48.1% (moderate conservative)
32 - KMT - 23 PR 12.4% - 9 Dist 1.52% (conservative)
293 - Gov - 95 PR 47.1% - 198 Dist 49.6% (conservative)

96 - CDP - 39 PR 20.0% - 57 Dist 30.0% (liberal/progressive)
25 - Ish - 25 PR 14.0% - 16 Dist 8.4% (conservative)
11 - DPP - 5 PR 4.5% - 6 Dist 2.2% (liberal)
10 - JCP -  9 PR 7.3% - 1 Dist 4.6% (communist)
14 - Other - 3 PR 7.2% - 11 Dist 5.3% (see below)

Others, are 3 seats for Reiwa (progressive), 1 for the SDP (social democrat), and 10 Independents (various, mostly liberal/progerssive). 

Summary:

293 Government 
131 Left Opposition
25 Right Opposition

The government, thus, lost 20 seats, but, kept the 'left opposition' roughly the same size, by losing seats to the right-wing opposition parties instead. 


Events can happen in the few days following an election in Japan, so, I will keep my eye on things and let you know what changes, if anything. 






Sunday, October 31, 2021

Japan election, early results

 Counting continues, and things can shift by 5 or so seats (or more), but, results look potentially to be as follows:


265 - LDP
95 - CDP
35 - NKP
35 - ISH
35 - others


This would be a great result for the LDP, and a poor one for the CDP. 

Monday, October 25, 2021

25OCT2021 updates

 Things are on the move in Czechia. Babis, the Prime Minister, and the speaker of the house (a member of his party), are expected to activate the portion of the constitution that allows them to step in to replace an ailing president. Not to fraudulently give their party a victory, but to ask the opposition leader to form government. While things worked this time, it would only take 2 bad actors to cause this system to break down in entirety. As such, I suspect this will be changed in the future. 


In Iceland, negotiations between the 3 largest parties - who also makeup the current government - are expected to continue. It would retain the same Prime Minister, despite her party losing seats. 


Nunavut holds elections today. I will not be covering it the same way I do elections elsewhere, for the same reason I avoid covering elections in many presidential systems - my focus is on parties in the Westminster and Westminster-like systems. - Nunavut has no parties, and is this impossible to cover in this manner. I will, however, consider looking at the results after the election, to see if I can't lump the candidates into 'parties' (likely incumbent vs challenger) to see if I can't make sense of the results. 


On the 31st, elections occur in Japan. My current thoughts (which have changed since my post over the weekend) is as follows:

255 - LDP
120 - CDP
25 - NKP
25 - ISH
20 - JCP
20 - others

Polls in Japan are notoriously difficult to 'read'. They always include the undecided voters. (Thus, instead of putting a two-party poll at 50%-50% with 20% undecided, it would say 40% and 40%) While this might not seem like a major problem, it is, as, undecided voters in japan like to break for the main opposition party. Often you'll see polls saying the LDP will win 45% of the vote, the main opposition party will win 15%, all other parties will in 20%, with 20% undecided, but, on election day, the LDP wins 45%, the other parties 20%, and the main opposition takes 35%. 

As such it is very difficult to try to interpret polling results. The 2 most recent polls have the LDP at 30% and 38%. the two before that have them at 30% and 33%. The two before that both at 44% while the two before that at 36% and 39%. In nearly any other country, this would cause suspicion at how on earth a party could vary so widely, but in Japan, this is normal. The poll with the LDP at 33% shows the CDP at 21%. the very next poll has them at 10%. Turning this into potential results is thus as much a guessing game as it involves math. 

Worse, just when you think you understand it, all of those above polls are "party vote" polls. Normally polls show "party identification". Those polls, in October alone, show the CDP as low as 5% and as high as 14%, and the LDP as low as 32% and as high as 51%. 

So who knows. I expect the LDP to have a majority, perhaps only with their coalition partner, or, perhaps on their own. We shall find out next week.