Sunday, November 13, 2022

a proper ending

 I wanted to clarify a few things.

1 - No I'm not "afraid of my life because somebody won an election in Israel."

Rather, it takes effort to keep reminding people that credible news organizations are credible for a reason. It takes effort to keep reminding people that not every conspiracy theory must be met with a well thought out response. It takes effort to keep reminding people that psychology explains why humans do things, not crazy conspiracies. It takes effort to keep reminding people that many of us see little to no difference between a "very religious christian", "very religious jew", "very religious hindu", and "very religious muslim". It takes effort to keep reminding people that those with malicious intent who agree with your policies must still be opposed.

I'm done with that. I'm done with expending effort into those things. Partly for reasons of personal growth, but also partly because it is super clear that the people I keep explaining these things to, now make up the new "mainstream" of right wing thought. What we one called "far right" thinking. 

That's just normal now. DeSantis, Meloni, Bibi; all are just right-wingers now, at least in the minds of voters.

2 - I'm not "done with politics."

But I am done with wanting a political life. I realized a while ago that I'll never be Prime Minister. Ever. It's just not going to happen. I don't have the skillset required, and even if I lucked into a position to grab at the job, I wouldn't even enjoy it. 

Lately I've realized that, for much the same reason, I will not have a political life either. I won't be some super strategist. I won't be on the TV telling you what the election means. I won't be in cabinet, supporting someone who has the skills to be PM. 

And most importantly

3 - I'm trying to be a better person.

That means seeing people as people. Seeing anti-vaxxers as people. Seeing even anti-maskers as people. People I don't understand, but people.

The political 'life' I've lived so far has lead me to become too extreme and shut out those I disagree with. That's changing.

Combined, that means I really no longer have a reason to run this blog. You can, and should, follow me on Twitter. I ask this knowing many people who hate Elon Musk will refuse; and that's a key reason why I'm actually asking this. No only do I want to stop seeing people by just their politics, I want to surround myself with the same. Those who have left twitter due to Elon are exactly the kind of people who I no longer need in my life. 

They can tell themselves I love Elon somehow. I don't really care. Elon is a moron and a jerk. A moron and a jerk with some good ideas, like going to space. He's both. Good and bad. Bad and good. That's possible. That's what humans do, be complicated and complex. That's human.

And I'm tired of pretending I'm different. I'm human. Just like Elon. Just like Trump. Just like my MP (who is prob my fav politician right now). Just like historic Heroes. Just like historic Villains. I am human. The only way I can see for myself, at this time, to continue to grow as a human, is to stop this blog. Likely forever. Perhaps just for now. But. Likely forever. 

Saturday, November 5, 2022

Netanyahu wins Israeli elections. the end.

 Bibi has won the Israeli elections. Results are as follows:

32 - Likud (Bibi) [X]

24 - Yesh Atid (Lapid)

14 - Religious Zionist (Ben Gvir) [X]

12 - National Unity (Gantz)

11 - Shas [X]

7 - UTJ [X]

6 - Yisrael Beiteinu

5 - Ra'am

5 - Hadash-Ta'al

4 - Labor

Parties with [X] will all but certainly form the next government.

This is where I take a step back

This is where I point out that the owner of twitter posts conspiracy theories

This is where I point out that the "Far Right" has won in Italy

The "Far Right" governs in Poland

in Hungary

it nearly won France, and likely will next time

it's growing in the UK within the tory party itself

It keeps winning primaries for the GOP in the USA

Go re-read this. all of it.

The "Far Right" has established itself as the only valid alternative to the mainstream status quo left.

In the post I linked to, I compared Trump and those like him to Gracchus, Robespierre, and Lenin. All three of them lived in times of violence, where people could be killed for their political beliefs. The things people said were held against them. 

When people like Caesar, Napoleon, and Stalin took over, only the "good little boys" got to live a comfortable life. Those who knew when to stop rocking the boat. 

This Israeli election is simply the straw that broke the camels back. It's just "one too many" examples of the "Far Right" winning. One too many data points. 

I'm closing this blog. Forever. 

Feel free to call me a traitor. I'm sure you will anyway. Call me anything you want. Tell me that they'll come for me anyway, and it'll be my own fault for not speaking up.

I'm done trying to warn everyone. Nobody listens.

Instead, I'll be a "good little boy"

A good little boy who knows when to shut up.

Monday, October 31, 2022

Israeli elections tomorrow; one possible result

 Below, I've created a scenario that is possible. I will caution, the scenario is not likely. I don't possess all the information I'd need to make a likely scenario. Instead, I've put together some core assumptions, and, created the below:

28 Likud

16 Nationalists

16 Orthodox

30 Lapid

9 Gantz

5 Lieberman

4 Labor

4 Meretz

4 Hadash

4 Ra'am

Sorted by grouping, you can see that pro-Bibi parties would take exactly 16 seats. This is Likud, the Otzma-Zionist alliance (IE the Nationalists), and a combo of Shas and the UTJ (IE the 2 Orthodox parties)

Anti-Bibi has Lapid's Yesh Atid taking 30 seats, while the parties lead by Gantz (9) and Lieberman (5) do worse. Labor and Meretz take 4 each.

Lastly, both Hadash (technically, a Hadash-Tibi alliance, unlikely to back either side for government) take 4 seats, while Ra'am (who is keen on sitting in any government they can) also take 4.

The assumptions I've made are as follows:

Likud will continue it's late election trend of bleeding votes, losing them to it's ally parties. The Nationalists will thus take a whopping 16 seats, as will the two Orthodox parties when combined. This happens because of concerns Bibi will invite Gantz back into government.

Meanwhile on the progressive side of the ledger, the opposite happens. Voters worried that Gantz or even Labor could be co-opted to join a pro-Bibi coalition, switch to Yesh Atid and vote for Lapid instead, vaulting the party to 30 seats. 

Otherwise, parties generally take a number of seats that is indicated by their polling average. 

This means Lapid will have the first crack at forming a new government. 

This is where some key assumptions, perhaps absurd assumptions, occur.

Lapid wants to be PM. However, that is not his primary desire. His primary desire is that Bibi does not become PM. 

Bibi wants to become PM, but his party, by now, would just want to return to government. Bibi knows this. 

Gantz also yearns for the office of PM. 

As such. Absurdly. 

Gantz will become PM.

This would mean a Yesh Atid-Likud-Gantz coalition government. 

This is not likely to occur whatsoever. 

However. I've decided it's what I'm going to "predict". 

Sunday, October 23, 2022

Sunak, Johnson, and Mordaunt. What it means if they get 100 MPs.

 Lets look at what happens in the tory leadership if 1, 2, or 3 of them get 100 MPs.

Only Sunak does:

Sunak supposedly already has 100 MPs. The ideal situation, the 'best' way for the party to move forward, the most stable thing they can do for the economy; is let this pass. This would be the #1 ideal scenario for the party right now.

Only Johnson does:

This would likely mean either Sunak has withdrawn, or, his backers have switched to Johnson. Unlikely, but, possible.

Only Mordaunt does:

This is what she's hoping for. Her campaign makes 0 sense otherwise. Her argument seems to be implying "Sunak and Johnson have to much bad blood and will not accept the other as leader, so, make me leader instead." I can't see this happening.

Sunak and Johnson do:

This seems the most likely as of the time of writing (10am in Toronto/NYC, [3pm in England] on 23OCT2022). This means we'd go straight to a members vote. I can't see Johnson winning the members vote against Sunak. However. There is a way for him to win, but, that would be another post for another time. (IE monday)

Sunak and Mordaunt, or, Johnson and Mordaunt:

Extremely unlikely. However, it this does somehow happen, Mordaunt may well win the members vote. Frankly, with Sunak having so much support by now, the only way Mordaunt beats him with members is by a 'unfortunate' campaign. Should this come to pass I'll detail this in greater detail with yet another post.

All 3 get 100 MPs:

ahahahahaha. oh god. This would be far worse than the 0 MP option from my last post! See below for what this would imply

Somehow, none of them do:

After Sunak has 100 public backers lined up, for him to fail to actually get their support would not just be a disaster for him, but, in this event, where nobody gets 100, would be far, far more damaging than if nobody even reached 100. 

This, as would the option where all 3 obtain the quota, would mean one thing and one thing alone: The problem isn't the tory leader, it's the tory MPs. A party so deeply, deeply divided can not properly govern. 

For their own sake, I hope tory MPs are smart enough to realize this, because unless you want your party to be in 4th place in seat count in the commons after the next election, you do not want either of these things to happen.

Friday, October 21, 2022

how the next UK conservative leader will be selected

 In order to make things clear, I'm going to be asking "What if X people get the support of 100 MPs" and answer the question individually from there.

What if 4 people (or more) get the support of 100 MPs

Given that the party has under 400 MPs, this is not possible without some kind of mass defection to the party. As such, we will move on.

What if 3 people get the support of 100 MPs

This would mean that MP's get exactly one round of voting for these candidates. Whomever happens to get the fewest MPs supporting them would be dropped. Once two remain...

What if 2 people get the support of 100 MPs

If this happens, you skip right to the members vote. Members will vote, online, for whom they want to be leader. The person who obtains the most valid votes, wins. Questions remain how members who are offline (IE the elderly and poor) will be able to participate. The vote result is announced next Friday (the 28th of October 2022) and, shortly after the time of said result, (an hour?) the winner becomes Prime Minister

What if 1 person gets the support of 100 MPs

They become Prime Minister on Monday. (Oct 24th)

What if 0 people get the support of 100 MPs

Ahahahahaha. I'd laugh for starters. This would, however, be an utter disaster for the party. Not sure how they'd recover if this actually plays out. MPs would likely be desperate enough to back someone they hate just to ensure this does not happen. In short, the party may literally break apart if this happens.

Tuesday, October 4, 2022

Quebec election summary

The Liberals lost 3 seats on the Island of Montreal.

The CAQ gained 13 seats from the remainder of Quebec.

QS is second most popular party.

PQ loses party status.

Conservatives fail to win a seat.

90 - CAQ - 41.0%
21 - PLQ - 14.4% 
11 - QS  -  15.4%  
03 - PQ  -  14.6% 
00 - PCQ - 12.9%

Monday, September 26, 2022

italy election results

119 FdI (nationalist and hard right)
66 Lega (populist and hard right)
45 FI (right wing)
7 other right
total - 237

69 PD (progressive)
12 GreenLeft (left wing)
4 other left
total - 85

52 M5S (left populist)
21 A-IV (moderate liberal)
5 others
total - 78

The short of it is that FdI and Meloni has won the election, but she will require the support of both Lega (Salvini), and FI (Berlusconi) to form government; but, these parties already agreed to such a thing prior to the election. 

Note, the results in the senate are similar. Right wing majority, but, the 3 larger right-wing parties all needed for a majority.