Thursday, May 12, 2022

Election Roundup, early may

 In the Philippines, Bongbong Marcos has been elected as President, along with his running made, Sara Duterte. He's taken roughly 46% of the vote. His main opponent was the sitting Vice President, Leni Roberdo. She ran as an Independent, and took about 22% of the vote. The next closest candidate, Manny Pacquiao, took only about 5% of the vote. All of this is from unofficial tallies. 

Sara Duterte has been elected Vice President, with ~47%, slightly more than Marcos. Francis Pangilinan took ~13.5%, he was Roberdo's running mate. Tito Sotto is the one who really beat expectations, taking ~12% of the vote. He was the running mate of the 4th placed Presidential candidate. 

Sotto is a Conservative. Pangilinan is where we run into the first complexity in covering Philippine politics; family. Let's look at how this 'works'. 

For example, Incumbent President Rodrigo Duterte was part of Laban, but founded PFP. Bongbong Marcos backs PFP but both were supported by Lakas. Sara Duterte is running with Lakas, not PFP. This continues historically; Ferdinand Marcos, the dictator, was part of the Nationalist party, which is the same party his opponent Corazon Aquino, the opposition leader he had assassinated. In short, 'party' is not as important here as which 'side' you are on in terms of family disputes.

Knowing who are what "Lakas" is, thus is far less important than knowing which "side" people are on, and the major "side" that won here is "Marcos"

Bongbong Marcos is on the "Marcos" side, while people like Roberdo and especially Pangilinan are closer to the "Aquino" side. 

Meanwhile in Germany

The Schleswig-Holstein election, as mentioned, returned the governing CDU as the largest party. One seat short of a majority. By default, the party would want to reach out to the FDP, the Business-Liberal party. However, the local CDU leader may be a moderate, who might wish a coalition with another party. One interesting option is the SSW.

SSW is an ethnic minority party. In 1947, the party took 9.3% of the vote, and, in 1950, they took 5.5%. Between then and 2022, they never got over the 5% threshold. In 2022, they took 5.7% of the vote. 

As a minority party, the party wins seats regardless of the threshold. The party represents minority Danish interests, and has generally centrist liberal policies. 

If the SSW and CDU can come to an agreement, it could be an alternative coalition. The parties, however, have some distance between them on certain issues. 

It is always possible the CDU will try to sit with the SPD or the Greens for some reason, or, try to govern 1 seat short. Regardless, I am following things.

In Northern Ireland

There's no sign yet that a brand new agreement is in the works. As such, it may be most realistic to look for adjustments to the existing agreement, similar to how the Belfast Agreement upgraded the Good Friday Agreement. There's nothing new to update just yet, but I want to make clear I am following things, and will let you know if and when something develops. 


In the UK, local elections were held. It is difficult to judge exactly what these things mean as only certain areas vote at certain times. Comparing this to the 2018 results (same seats), Labour continues to rise. It is in other years that the Conservatives do much better. 

It is far more useful to look outside England. Scotland saw the Tories down, losing ~60 seats, with all the other (major) parties gaining. Wales has a much more direct change, with the Tories losing ~85 seats and Labour taking ~65 of them. 

As always, I continue to monitor polls in various countries. There's nothing to update in Israel, Italy, or the republic of Ireland. 

In Australia, polls seem to think that a 54-46 split may be where things settle. This would result in a Labor government. 

Lastly, here in Ontario, I am following things. However, at this time, there's nothing much to comment on. I expect that by this time next week I will have a much clearer view on what may be happening. 

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