Sunday, October 23, 2022

Sunak, Johnson, and Mordaunt. What it means if they get 100 MPs.

 Lets look at what happens in the tory leadership if 1, 2, or 3 of them get 100 MPs.

Only Sunak does:

Sunak supposedly already has 100 MPs. The ideal situation, the 'best' way for the party to move forward, the most stable thing they can do for the economy; is let this pass. This would be the #1 ideal scenario for the party right now.

Only Johnson does:

This would likely mean either Sunak has withdrawn, or, his backers have switched to Johnson. Unlikely, but, possible.

Only Mordaunt does:

This is what she's hoping for. Her campaign makes 0 sense otherwise. Her argument seems to be implying "Sunak and Johnson have to much bad blood and will not accept the other as leader, so, make me leader instead." I can't see this happening.

Sunak and Johnson do:

This seems the most likely as of the time of writing (10am in Toronto/NYC, [3pm in England] on 23OCT2022). This means we'd go straight to a members vote. I can't see Johnson winning the members vote against Sunak. However. There is a way for him to win, but, that would be another post for another time. (IE monday)

Sunak and Mordaunt, or, Johnson and Mordaunt:

Extremely unlikely. However, it this does somehow happen, Mordaunt may well win the members vote. Frankly, with Sunak having so much support by now, the only way Mordaunt beats him with members is by a 'unfortunate' campaign. Should this come to pass I'll detail this in greater detail with yet another post.

All 3 get 100 MPs:

ahahahahaha. oh god. This would be far worse than the 0 MP option from my last post! See below for what this would imply

Somehow, none of them do:

After Sunak has 100 public backers lined up, for him to fail to actually get their support would not just be a disaster for him, but, in this event, where nobody gets 100, would be far, far more damaging than if nobody even reached 100. 

This, as would the option where all 3 obtain the quota, would mean one thing and one thing alone: The problem isn't the tory leader, it's the tory MPs. A party so deeply, deeply divided can not properly govern. 

For their own sake, I hope tory MPs are smart enough to realize this, because unless you want your party to be in 4th place in seat count in the commons after the next election, you do not want either of these things to happen.

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