Sunday, September 30, 2018

Quebec - Predictions, including my own

Teddy On Politics
CAQ - 62 (minority)
PLQ - 45
PQ - 10
QS - 8
(due to a hard drive crash, individual riding projections are unavailable)
CAQ - 63 (majority)
PLQ - 44
PQ - 11
QS - 7
CAQ - 63 (majority)
PLQ - 41
PQ - 8
QS - 7
CAQ - 64 (majority)
PLQ - 41
PQ - 10
QS - 10

Quito Maggi (mainstreet polling head)
CAQ - 72 (majority)
PLQ - 35
PQ - 9
QS - 9

Blunt-Objects (Kyle J Hutton)
CAQ - 54 (minority)
PLQ - 49
PQ - 19
QS - 7

Quebec - what's most likely to happen

Now that I've had some time to look at the polls in Quebec, I feel comfortable saying the CAQ will take between 55-65 seats, and could manage a very narrow majority.

The PQ is dropping the few vital points they need to hold on to some of their weaker seats, and will likely end up with between 5 and 12 seats.

The PLQ is still strong and will probably take between 35-45 seats, and form a strong opposition.

QS is maintaining their strong position at 16%-17%, and will most certainly at least take 5 seats, and could even take 10 seats if the ballots fall in the right order.

So, what happens after this?

A PQ-PLQ government is very unlikely. It does not matter if it is an outright Coalition, a Confidence and Supply deal (C&S) or some other arrangement that allows the PLQ to govern. First, as the sitting Government there is not much draw for an opposition party like the PQ to back them, and secondly, as the party 'furthest out' on Identity issues, the PLQ will have difficulty working with either the PQ or QS.

A CAQ-PQ government is more likely. Even then, the PQ would be loathe to back a party like the CAQ and would require some significant policy concessions to even consider it. The CAQ may be willing to give those up for a solid agreement for a stable government. The CAQ may also be willing to deal if the PLQ wins more seats, but CAQ+PQ=Majority. Either way the CAQ would need to give up a lot to get the PQ on side; but, its still the most likely route to a majority if nobody takes 63 seats.

A simple CAQ minority, however, may be what we end up with; without any backing from the PQ or other parties. This is probably the most likely on the numbers we currently see. If this happens we can expect another election in a year (if the CAQ goes up in the polls) or two (if the PLQ goes up in the polls) or even three (if the PQ sinks like a stone in the polls)

Any subsequent election to that would likely produce either a CAQ majority, or, return the Liberals to a majority. The PQ would be in deep trouble either way.

In the event of a CAQ majority, the PQ is likely finished as we know it. My money is on some kind of merger with QS - probably resulting in QS merging into the PQ and keeping the PQ name and branding but with the structure of QS (dual leaders for example) replacing the structure of the PQ. Should the PQ take fewer seats than QS this becomes much much more likely.

Such a merger would likely have won this election, so, it is in the interest of both parties to explore it, and since QS seems most interested in social justice, and the PQ most interested in its prestige as the "Party of Quebec" a deal to merge PQ branding with QS policies could well be the path back to office.

Saturday, September 29, 2018

Computer blew up

Update: My Computer blew up.

Not literally, but the HDD (hard drive) has stopped working. I know enough about computer hardware and sounds to know that the chances it works again are very, very low, and even if it does, I would need to rush to save any data. Data like the Quebec projection maps, and the spreadsheet program used to make them.

Fortunately, as my maps can be easily edited, I can get my map back simply by downloading the image in my last blogpost. The spreadsheet is not so easy. However, again, fortunately I'd shared it with someone, so, they sent it back to me. The problem is this version does not include the latest riding adjustments, but, those can always be re-entered.

With a dead hard drive the above will basically be the story of my life for the next week. What I've not backed up needs to be re-found. (the most important stuff in my life is backed up multiple times, but the overwhelming majority of what I own is not) Since I love sharing my maps, most of them will have been saved, and, since I consider my core maps part of what is important, those have been backed up.

What I've lost is thousands upon thousands of hours of work. Much of it on stuff that never goes anywhere. At the moment my HDD broke I was working on an alternate-history map of Poland. One that I almost certainly was never going to even share with anyone.


Where to go from here.

I'd like to walk you through the steps I've already taken and the ones I will need to take in the coming days.

As soon as I heard my HDD making weird noises I tried to load up the C drive in windows. It did not load. I knew right away the HDD was dead. I restarted the computer, and yup. Dead.

First things first, I went and grabbed my "backup desktop". Its an AMD machine that my old boss gave me. Apparently I know enough to get a job fixing computers but don't know enough to keep a job fixing computers. I then grabbed a spare Windows 7 install CD that I found on the ground one day, and installed Windows 7. The case had all the numbers I needed for verification. Then I turned that computer off.

My next step, before I did anything, was to leave the house. Why? Well whenever I have massive computer issues, one thing I tend to need to do is re login to my ISP. If I have that login data written down anywhere, I have "lost" it (It's probably in one of my piles of important documents) but chances are I actually don't have it written down. Since I do everything on the computer - EVERYTHING - I'd need to find a telephone from which to call my ISP. Before I did that I decided I'd go to the Library and use the internet there and see if I can find out what my ISP's phone number is, as well as get other information I may need, such as my account number at my ISP.

Once obtained I then walked to the dollar store to get a Telephone Handset. I do, after all, have VOIP, but mostly just use it for its voice mail services. They did not have one so I went to Home Hardware and bought a handset. From there I pulled out my old Laptop. For those wondering, this is an Acer Aspire 3515. A picture of it can be seen here. Yes that's really the computer I'm using right now. 32 bit, single core, 1.9G speed, 2G ram (at least that's not bad) on Windows Vista. Apparently, if you use Vista, internet browsers get mad at you and tell you to upgrade. I can not get the latest browsers and am looking forward to finding out what websites I can not access.

The laptop, once plugged in, was able to connect to the internet. This is when I realized/remembered that chances are the login information my ISP needs is not on the desktop, but rather, on the router. If true, I should theoretically be able to log in to my ISP with any computer so long as its plugged in to the Ethernet.

So, once I was able to confirm the Laptop will get me online if all else fails, I fired up the backup Desktop I have, and tried to go online. One remaining roadblock has to do with Windows 7. The CD I found on the ground was after someone moved out of an apartment building I lived in. As usual, they leave anything they think others might find useful in the lobby. The problem here is I don't know if this copy of Windows 7 has already been installed and authenticated on another computer. It probably has. When I do get the desktop online, the authentication will happen and I may well be unable to use Windows 7. If so I will need to figure out what else to do. The reason I'm talking in the future tense, is I was not able to get online with the backup desktop. Turns out it has no Ethernet card. No place to plug in the wire.

As such I turned off the computer, and opened the hood. I've been trying to get the HDD out of the backup so I can plug it into my old/broken computer, as, since its only the HDD that's broken, this should give me one completely functioning computer, but I can't for the life of me figure out how to remove the HDD from the backup desktop.

This is when I decided to plug the laptop back in, an update everyone on the situation. That means all of you, my small but dedicated community of regular readers, but also the various people I'm going to link to this post, so that everyone in my personal and professional life can be on the same page.

So, what is next?

I've been eyeing a computer at the computer store I bought my old computer from for a few weeks now. Its about $200 and has everything I need. The problem; this store is in Toronto and I am not. I could try an online purchase and shipping, but I have no credit card and don't know if they take paypal. Even if they do, my apartment is far from ideal to ship parcels to, so I'd need help from my father nearby to receive the actual computer when it arrives. I may also be able to get a friend to pick it up when he makes one of his semi-regular trips to Toronto. The problem is this friend is a computer store owner, and I'd literally be asking him to go buy a computer from another computer store for me. I could also try to get my half-sister who lives in the GTA to help, or ask one of my 'friends' in the area; but they are all online friends and some level of trust would need to be established before I wire them $200.

Money is also an obstacle. I still live on ODSP. I can not afford $200 this month. I can, however, if I truly squeeze my budget, afford $100 this month, and $100 next month. I can make up the difference with a 0% interest loan from my father. I'd rather not do this, but it is an option. It also means two months of very right budgets.

The easier solutions are either to get an Ethernet card for my backup desktop, or, to plug in the backup desktop's HDD into my old computer, thus making that computer work as well as it did this morning.

Once I do have a functioning computer, the next step will be to start any data recovery. That only comes once I have a functioning computer. If I do end up getting one from Toronto that could be a week from now.

This is where the sad news comes in.

Part of that data to be recovered is all my projections.

Even if I do get full on help, the earliest I can get everything back running smoothly (even if everything goes perfectly) is tomorrow morning. There is also a lot more than just projection files I need to find once more. It would take more than a day to really truly be able to get all of that back. This means, sadly.

There will be no more Quebec projections from me.

I've not been able to check any polls this morning, so even stuff from yesterday afternoon is unknown to me at this time; but, from what last polls I did see, I do expect a CAQ minority of between 50-60 seats. The PLQ is likely to take around 45-50 seats, with the PQ near 15, and QS at somewhere around 7. I expect the PQ and CAQ to work out some kind of deal; be it full supply and confidence, or even an outright coalition (unlikely) that would enable the government to operate for at least 18 if not 30 months. By which time the polls will likely have shifted radically enough to make the next election a very different story (if the PQ does prop up the CAQ you can expect them to be utterly replaced by QS and will be unlikely to take even 3 seats next election)

Writing a blogpost is actually something I can easily do in my current situation. My laptop is so slow that even highlighting text has a slight delay, but writing here in blogger works just fine. This may actually result in significantly increased blog output.

Regardless, I am sorry to say the official Quebec numbers are likely done for. I may, MAY, be able to get more done, but am not going to commit to anything.

Thank you all for your understanding.

PS. If anyone wishes to throw in a few bucks to help me get a new computer, contact me on twitter @pellaken

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Quebec Projections: Election nears

Projection draws closer to reality as I'm more and more able to gleam Mainstreet's riding polls by looking at the projections of others.

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

New Brunswick, in more depth

Before we jump right in comparing PANB to the CoR, I'd like to look at the vote patterns for all 5 parties.


I want to, in particular, talk about the vote pattern for PANB.

In short, it can be summed up as "anglo, but outside Cities". this is not perfect, as Miramichi did vote for them, and rural areas outside Saint John, and in the Western part of the province did not; but this is nevertheless a good way to put it. This is very similar to the old CoR vote, but not quite identical.

So lets flat out ask, is PANB the CoR?

The PANB platform goes out of its way to say "the People’s Alliance supports the original ideals of bilingualism" but is otherwise vague as to the plans of the party. Most of the rhetoric from the leader implies less french requirements for employees of the government (paramedics, school bus drivers, civil servants, etc) in areas that are very anglophone.

Meanwhile the 1991 NB CoR Platform, which I have right here (BTW this website is awesome) is quite explicit. "The English Language will be sued as the official internal communication and filing language of the civil service" "English will be the official language of record and work within the civil service" "the Party will repeal the Official Languages Act"

Both parties support the idea of more referendums, a focus on education in the platform, a greater role for nurses, and opposition to a deficit.

Both parties can be seen as right-wing, and, more right-wing than the Tories.

PANB's platform is far less specific than CoR's platform.

However, we do have access to both the 2014 and 1995 platforms for both parties! The 1995 CoR platform is similar in size to the 2018 PANB platform, and vice versa for the 2014 PANB platform and the 1991 CoR platform. This will help to see where each party has true priorities. From this we can further conclude:

Both parties support small business, both parties want more accountability and autonomy for MLAs, and more power for municipalities.

Both parties do have some significant differences. CoR explicitly calls for so-called 'corporate welfare' while PANB calls for ending it. CoR calls for tax cuts as a core part of its platform, while PANB focuses on efficiencies (cuts) to government spending. The CoR platform also simply and bluntly reads as more 'loopy'. It has sections dedicated to Federal issues, and the entire 1995 platform reads like it was written more as a rant rather than a manifesto. PANB meanwhile has comparatively moderate policies that could easily be espoused by the PC Party if it were more right-wing.

Conclusion: PANB is the more moderate, more modern, more sane version of the CoR; but, given the kinds of voters it taps into, the vote patterns of the party, and the issues it chooses to talk about, it is, indeed a version of the CoR, even if more moderate, modern, and sane.

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

New Brunswick, more numbers (regional)

I'd like to dig into some of the numbers resulting from the election. Lets start in Acadian ridings.

14 LIB   57.13%
  1 PC    21.75%
  1 GRN 11.75%
  0 NDP  7.82%
  0 PA    0.44%

The Liberals managed to take a massive 57% here, but the PC party is still the preferred alternative, with the Tories taking first or second in 12 of the 16 ridings. The problem for the Tories remains just how far back they are behind the Liberals; had the PC vote doubled in each of these ridings they would only have won two additional seats.

PANB meanwhile will have some serious work, capturing only 7.54% in one of these ridings; Campbellton-Dalhousie, which itself, is the most Anglophone riding included, being 42% English by mother tongue.

The Green vote is interesting in that it does not differ much from...

21 PC  36.98%
  7 LIB 28.12%
  3 PA  18.67%
  2 GRN 11.95%
  0 NDP 3.59%

This shows the strength of the Alliance, but also why the Tories took the most seats. 37% in the English speaking ridings is nothing to sneeze at, and at those levels it is not unreasonable to win what amounts to basically 2/3rds of the seats. (FPTP can be strange like that) The 28% should be worrying for the Liberals, especially considering how most of the major Urban areas in in this part of the province.

What I find interesting is when you narrow things down to...

Very Anglo (80% Anglo or more)
19 PC    38.93%
  3 LIB   24.58%
  3 PA    21.63%
  1 GRN 11.46%
  0 NDP  3.11%

You don't actually see much of a difference. The Liberals drop 4 ridings, but PANB only makes slight gains. A lot of the PANB strength is not found on the Anglophone fringe of the province, but in Anglophone areas where there are Francophones either nearby, or working, such as Miramichi and Fredericton respectively. In fact I suspect it is this "invisible neighbour" aspect that drives the PANB vote, and why they've been unable to match the CoR's success in the areas around...

7 LIB   45.09%
5 PC    29.98%
1 GRN 12.17%
0 PA    5.97%
0 NDP  5.47%

At one time Saint John was the dominant city in New Brunswick, but Moncton now dominates. The area has grown from what was once three somewhat separate cities (Moncton, Riverview, and Dieppe) into a more unified urban whole; one where French speakers are not uncommon. As someone who personally lived in the area, I can tell you the fact that the main shopping centres are between Moncton and Dieppe means you frequently hear people speaking french in any random given week living in Moncton.

Given the growth in the area in the past 30 or so years, it is not unthinkable that those in Riverview, in 1991, likely did not hear French as often as they do today, and that this could well be a driving factor in the Moncton area being the key regional difference between PANB and CoR's vote patterns. One place both PANB and CoR did well was...

4 PC    30.68%
2 PA    27.55%
1 LIB   22.49%
1 GRN 17.31%
0 NDP  1.82%

the "mess" I had feared really seems limited to this area. Note how very low the NDP vote is here as 4 parties fought over voters. A lot of the narrow defeats come from this area. Fredericton North was won by 31.61% for the Liberals vs 28.23% for the Tories. Oromocto by 31.95% for the Tories vs 30.71% for the Liberals. Fredericton West was on by Dominic Cardy, former NDP leader and new Tory MLA with 31.82% vs 27.93% for the Liberals. PANB won Fredericton-York with 33.73% compared to 30.88% for the Tories. This makes the Tory win in Carleton-York on 37.17% look like a Landslide over the 30.79% PANB vote. The Tory wins here were generally not by wide margins, which contrasts to things in...

Saint John
9 PC    47.67%
1 LIB   25.37%
0 PA    13.45%
0 GRN  7.85%
0 NDP  5.31%

Our final area we will look at today was a solid PC win. The city is known for leaning to the right historically, and a margin of victory this large is not unusual. The only two ridings the PC Party won over 50% of the vote in are here; Leader Blaine Higgs riding of Quispamsis, and Portland-Simmonds. The only Liberal win, in Saint John Harbour, was an extremely narrow one at 1,865 votes compared to 1,855 for the PC challenger.

In our next post I will directly compare PANB to CoR.

NB election - results!

Note that I'm working on maps and analysis, I've posted a half dozen maps on my twitter and a link to a spreadsheet showing the riding by riding results. Most of those maps will find their way here.

The results are as follows:

22 - PC - 31.89%
21 - LIB - 37.80%
3 - PANB - 12.58%
3 - Green - 11.88%
0 - NDP - 5.01%
0 - KISS - 0.10%
0 - IND - 0.74%

To answer the questions posed in my last post:

1 - How decisive will the Liberal win be in Francophone areas?

I've not added up the riding results yet but it seems obvious the answer is "very".

2 - Will the PC Party die in Francophone areas, and if so, who will do well?

The party did not die as some had feared. While I've not done the math yet (as sorting out what the line between francophone and non-francophone riding is not easy at 1am) they likely finished second, and a quick 18 riding (francophone) model has the vote split at 55% Liberal, 22% PC, 13% Green, and 8% NDP. 

The Greens, however, did rather well, being the top-finishing 3rd party in most Acadian ridings, with the exception of those in the Bathurst area which voted NDP as their 3rd party of choice (the NDP held an MPs seat for a long time in this area)

3 - Will the polls about minor parties be right?

Yes. They were. And that poses interesting questions about how well QS is actually doing in Quebec; this implies they are, indeed, actually doing quite well, and this sets up a potentially very interesting Quebec election as a result.

4 - If these polls are right, and, if the Liberals do very well in Francophone areas, and, if nobody picks up the torch as the opposition Francophone party (all 3 of these seem at least somewhat likely at this point) then what sort of mess will the Anglophone ridings be?

All in all things were not nearly as messy as expected. Some areas were PANB Friendly while others were more PC Friendly. A quick count (again, 1am, may be wrong) shows only 11 ridings where the winner did not take at least 40% of the vote, and only 5 with winners taking under 35% of the vote (SJ Harbour, Oromocto, Fred North, Fred York, and Fred West)

Monday, September 24, 2018

Questions to answer in the NB election

1 - How decisive will the Liberal win be in Francophone areas?

If "very" the Liberals could be in deep trouble elsewhere in the province, as, there's only so much share of the popular vote to go around, and polls suggest their lead is not that wide.

2 - Will the PC Party die in Francophone areas, and if so, who will do well?

Tories could be shut out, but this could open up a route for the Greens or NDP to become the default 'opposition vote' in Francophone ridings, and, if strong enough, this could even lead to some unexpected victories.

3 - Will the polls about minor parties be right?

The NDP, Greens, and Peoples Alliance have all been above 10% in certain polls (Nanos had all three above 10%, while Mainstreet has the Greens north of 16%, and Forum has PANB north of 16%) and the question of if this actually plays out in the voting will matter quite a bit. Since the infamous 1991 election, only two times (in the last two elections) has a 3rd party (the NDP) topped 10% in the polls.

4 - If these polls are right, and, if the Liberals do very well in Francophone areas, and, if nobody picks up the torch as the opposition Francophone party (all 3 of these seem at least somewhat likely at this point) then what sort of mess will the Anglophone ridings be?

We could be looking at two dozen ridings where the winner has less than a third of the vote!

Sunday, September 23, 2018

Friday, September 21, 2018

Another Quebec Update

This from before the forum poll; but we now have enough polls to return to poll averaging:

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Sunday, September 16, 2018

Quebec, with a PQ-QS merger

This is a bit of a fun map, rather than something based on hard math. In short, I've combined the projected PQ+QS vote per riding, and multiplied it by roughly 90% to produce a somewhat realistic "merged vote". I suspect that if the PQ wins under 10 seats that such a merger may indeed be realistic. Regardless, here is the map:

As you can see, the CAQ still has the edge here, but the merged PQS does very well.

This gives you some idea of what the vote patterns of a merged party might look like.

Friday, September 14, 2018


Today's post is going to be short, and off schedule, as I feel the 20-odd houses that randomly exploded yesterday deserve some attention.

This is underplayed in the media, and as always, I strive to bring you the stories I think are important.

This is a story I think is important.

TLDR: this could have been caused by a simple over-pressure situation, and there's a (small and probably unrealistic) chance this could be caused by a hacker attack.

While I have extreme doubts this was any sort of "attack", mistakes happen all the time, and people need to be aware of the risks of what is in their own home.

Keep in mind I can not recall this ever happening before.

Simply; keep an eye out. Don't be "too busy" to pay attention to your own safety. I am neither encouraging anyone to freak out and go overboard, nor am I saying you should ignore this. I am saying you should spend 5 minutes a week making sure that explosive substances being piped straight into your house are actually as safe as you think they are.

Thursday, September 13, 2018

Toronto to have 25 wards, eventually.

With the notwithstanding clause, and a majority in the legislature, the new bill will pass.

There's actually a lot less on this to say than I expected. There are no parts of the Constitution that could be used to over-ride this. Section 3 wont cut it.

The new candidate deadline is 48 hours after the bill passes, which means there will still be time to file for those who did not yet file.

Problems could include that the Clerk could throw out all past nominations when the court ordered the 25 wards reversed.

In short; this is a big mess, will only get messier, but, nothing can be done until the next Ontario Election.

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Doug Ford's Toronto move and Blog Schedule

First, a quick note on the schedule. I am working on the following posts

1 - A full post about Ford's Toronto moves, and the 25 vs 47 wards and what it all could mean. (spoiler: I can't see how anyone could stop Ford)

2 - A fuller and richer quebec projection; this will depend partly on getting a poll from a 3rd firm (Mainstreet, Leger, and someone else; probably CROP or Ipsos)

3 - A richer post in the Sweden results and government formation (A Socialist-Centre alliance seems the most likely at this time as I expected)

4 - A post about what Ford's moves could mean in Ontario politics (In short, if Tories are at or below 34% this is very bad for Ford)

5 - A quick overview of the oncoming US Midterms (The final relevant primaries are tomorrow night)

Many of these are time limited. I can't for example, post about #5 until Friday Morning, and #2 and #4 require polls that could come out at any time; while #3 requires more movement in coalition negotiation. As for #1 I'd like to see exactly what Ford is proposing before I post; and, I prefer to do one post a day, in the morning.

As such this is a bit of a holdover post, and letting everyone know what I'm working on.

I am actually keeping the Quebec map up to date based on data as I get it even if I do not blog it every update.

Monday, September 10, 2018

Quebec Update

A poll was finally released publically this morning which allowed me to update my projection. CAQ at 60 (minority) with the PLQ at 42, the PQ at 17, and the QS at 6.

More to come in a post later (it's been a terribly busy morning for me!)

Toronto to have 47 wards this election

Just a quick notice to readers that Doug Ford's plan to cut Toronto council has been blocked. The law apparently agreed with my gut, that doing this in the middle of an election is a big no-no.

Sweden, quick results

I still need to get my notes together for the election (in truth I'd planned to jump back and forth between every new poll in Quebec and a post about Sweden, which is one reason I'm so upset about no Quebec polls) but I'd like to share the results of the election.

101 - S - Social Democrats
70 - M - Moderate
62 - SD - Swedish Democrats
31 - C - Centre Party
28 - V - Left Party
23 - KD - Christian Democrats
19 - L - Liberals
15 - MP - Greens

144 - Red-Green (S+MP+V)
143 - Alliance (M+C+L+KD)
62 - Swedish Democrats

No major party wants to coalition with the SD.

Why these election results are interesting is that you need 175 seats for a Majority, and both alliances are either 32 or 31 seats away. Technically a Red-Green alliance (144) supported by the Centre party (31) would have a majority (175) but this is cutting it very close. This is what I'd expected the final result of the election to be (Red-Green supported by Centre) in all honesty. Part of the problem is the Centre party is so close to dropping to 30 seats, that the 2 booths yet counted (out of 6004) could be enough to knock that extra seat away.

The weakness in the allies of the Social Democrats (my earlier poll average had them sitting on a combined 57 seats, they took a combined 43) is part of what contributes to this.

In short: this election is worse than expected for the 7 mainstream parties.

Sunday, September 9, 2018

Sweden: exit polls (a bit unexpected)

33 Left Party
92 Social Democrats
18 Greens
143 RED

33 Center:
65 Moderates
20 Liberals
25 Christian Democrats

63 Sweden Democrats

based on both exit polls combined

Saturday, September 8, 2018

Quick preview of Sweden

According to the polls this is currently the likely result:

89 - S (Social Democrat)
37 - V (Left)
20 - MP (Green)
146 - Red Green Alliance

62 - M (Moderate)
32 - C (Liberal/Centrist/Rural)
23 - KD (Christian Democrat)
22 - L (Liberal/Centrist)
139 - Alliance

64 - SD (Neo-Nationalist)

No alliance can win a majority with these numbers (175)

There are a few ways around this (I will address in my later post) but the Centre Party could give the Red-Green Alliance a majority if they signed some kind of deal.

Thursday, September 6, 2018

Still no new public polls in Quebec

I have been trying to keep my own projection up, by reverse-engineering the projections of others; but that can only get me so far.

There is also an election in Sweden that's coming up on Sunday that I plan to cover after the fact. The polls have been very stable over the long term there, and as such, there's not much to discuss. The upward blip from the neo-Nationalist SD (Swedish Democrats) has been cancelled out through the campaign, and while they will gain from the last election, the current polling is most certainly not a huge "win" for the party by any means.

Tuesday, September 4, 2018

Another Quebec Update

I just want to start by drawing attention to this
wikipage on quebec polling for some context for something I will bring up later in this post.

In order to make this projection I've had to do some reverse-engineering of the work of others such as QC125 and TCTC

Quebec polling has been very light to non existent so far in the election. I am hopeful that this is due to the fact the election just started and that polling will pick up. Regardless, polling is very hard to come by right now with only mainstreet doing polls, and those polls being behind paywalls.

Full disclosure that I was able to get access to Ontario's paywalled mainstreet polling thanks to the goodwill of mainstreet head Quito Maggi. I will not be doing the same for Quebec for two reasons. First, it would be extremely ungrateful; to ask, and second, I still fundamentally disagree on a moral level with this business model.

As I see it, if you have done a poll that is unable to be put on wikipedia, you've not done a poll.

That is why I am not very impressed when the head of Leger polling decided to smack talk Mr. Maggi.

Mr. Leger has no business smack talking the only man actually doing daily polls, even if those polls are paywalled.

By introducing this inflammatory rhetoric, you are drawing attention to the fact that there has been a grand total of one single poll done during the 11 days of the election.

This is both pathetic and shameful. Quebec is the 2nd largest province in Canada, with 8M people, and to have it so poorly polled is offensive.

Worse, it reminds people of the poor polling over in NB which, in fairness, is actually to be expected due to its size (700K) and, in my mind, brings up the fact that since MIRA collapsed - the agency that oversaw polling in Canada - that abacus polling no longer includes full PDFs of their polls.

From where I sit, as someone on social support, here, on the morning of September 4th 2018, the entire Canadian polling industry seems to be in utter shambles. If you wanted to infuriate me, I could hardly think of a better way than to start smack talking one another when the sort of rubbish you can see in the link at the top of this post is the best you can do.