Call it a "Freedom Convoy" or an "Occupation Blockade", but the demonstrations in Ottawa have changed quite a lot, politically, in Canada.
A problem I'm seeing, is people are looking for places where they won't see that change; political polls.
This demonstration has not changed any Tories into Liberals or New Democrats into PPC members. What it has done, is made massive changes to the various groups that swing between these parties election after election. I want to go through them and examine this.
To those who are anti-vaxx, this has solidified any drift that mandates were having. We've seen people who have previously said they would never get vaccinated, get vaccinated. We will see much less of this going forward. Those who remain without shots are now much less likely to get them, regardless of any mandates. In fact, I'd suspect some who only have one shot, will decide that's all they need, and those with two, will decide against a booster. This may be a small share of the population - around 15% - but it will impact some vaccination statistics. Politically, it will solidify their position within their parties, be it the Conservatives or the PPC, with an important caveat; it's solidifying them as anti-vaxx politically. Should the Conservatives swing to become more appealing to anti-vaxx voters, this group will respond in kind.
To those who support mandates, this has also solidified their view. In particular, those who might lean right, now view the Conservatives as unacceptably right-wing due to their perceived anti-vaxx stance. These people will likely stay home and refuse to come out to vote, or, if they do vote, may back minor parties. This will reduce the maximum number of votes the Conservatives can access in the next election.
Those who have generally supported mandates, but who have been concerned about the harshness of some mandates, have been greatly softened. None of them are currently changing who they are voting for, but, future actions will see them move. This is why governments across Canada are moving to end restrictions. Not to satisfy the demonstrators, but to ensure that this group, the mushy middle, remains content. When this group is on the side of the restrictions, we have a clear 8-to-1 overwhelming majority supporting the status quo. When this group suddenly backs off, that clear overwhelming consensus turns into something closer to a 2-to-1 majority, which is far less able to build a true consensus.
Those who have generally opposed mandates, but who have gone along with them, are also softened. Some are offended by the demonstrations, while others are questioning if they'll continue to follow the rules. In particular, they've become very sensitive to the actions of the political parties on these issues. They do want Covid to end and do trust vaccines and science, but don't want what they see as government over-reach. Until now they've been locked into whatever party they've happened to support as there was simply no alternative, but now, with parties moving and shifting about, reacting; they are liable to start moving and shifting as well, from where they currently are, to alternatives they are comfortable with, but that support their concerns about government powers.
The previous election, and, previous culture debate, has this radically changed. This has gone from a united society with an opposing radical fringe, to one that is actually and truly divided.
If you look at political polls, you'll see that the numbers have not changed. The context of those numbers, however, will no longer be the same.
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