Tuesday, April 30, 2019

PEI, Electoral Reform, and a "Lite" proposal.

Canadians, as seen in the referenda we've held towards election reform, need to be warmed up to the idea. In order to achieve this goal, I propose a "Lite" reform.

PEI will be our example.

This reform will keep the 27 ridings we have, and keep them FPTP. It will add 5 new ridings. Why 5? Two reasons. First is that at one time, PEI had 32 ridings; and had 32 from 1966 to 1996. Second is the use of a formula I am proposing which I'll outline at the bottom of this post, from which you can work out the number of additional seats to add to any province with.

Next, we simply use the total party vote across the province to help determine our result. Then we divide it by the number of seats each party has won, plus one. Why plus one? It's a bit of complex math, but in short, that is the one seat we are currently calculating.

The results we then get are 3,387 for the Liberals, 2,732 for the Greens, 2,402 for the NDP, and 2,256 for the Tories. The Liberals, with the highest total, "win" this, the first of our five additional seats.

Thus we add one to the Liberal total, which, impacts their new number, down to 2,964. Still the highest, so they win this, the second, of our additional seats.

Now down at 2,635, the Liberals are no longer the highest party, the Greens are, who win the third of our additional seats.

The Greens fall to 2,459 allowing the Liberals to win the fourth seat, but the Liberals falling to 2,371, allow the Greens to take the 5th and final extra seat, reducing their total to 2,236

The NDP would be next, if there were any additional seats to hand out, but there are not.

What this does is change our final results to 12 PC, 10 Green, and 9 Liberal. This has a much closer reflection to the actual popular vote totals cast in the election.

Formula for calculating the number of additional seats.
Legislature divided by 7. Take that number, add one. Round.

PEI sees 27/7 = 3.857, add one = 4.857, round = 5
Ontario 121/7 = 17.2857, add one = 18.2857, round = 18
Quebec 125/7 = 17.857, add one = 18.857, round = 19
Newfoundland (40) = would result in 7 additional seats
MB (57) = 9 additional
AB (87) = 13 additional
Federally = is not done; is done by region (ON, QC, BC, AB, as well as the Atlantic, and 'Central Prairies and North') which gives us 19 for Ontario, 12 for Quebec, 7 for BC, 6 for AB, 6 for the Atlantic, 5 for the remainder. (for a total of 55)

Monday, April 29, 2019

The PEI Reverse Gerrymander

Prior to the 1996 PEI election, PEI used riding boundaries that had been drawn 100 years prior. While there had been one change, in 1966, this resulted in some ridings having far more or far less voters than they should have. Before the 1996 election, the Supreme Court told PEI they had to have fair ridings, and so, Elections PEI took to redrawing the boundaries.

This is when something interesting happened.

After seeing the completed map, the Legislature stepped in and drew its own map. At the time, the Liberals dominated the Legislature, and many said that this map was Gerrymandered to guarantee a Liberal win.

In the 1996 election, the PC Party won a majority.

The same map was used in 2000, and 2003. Both times resulting in a PC Majority. Finally, before the 2007 election, the map was updated.

Yet again, the Legislature stepped in, and drew its own map. Yet again, there were accusations of Gerrymandering, this time, against the governing PC Party.

In the 2007 election, the Liberals won a majority.

They won again, on the same map in 2011, and 2015, before, finally, the map was again updated.

And again, the Legislature, this time dominated by the Liberals, drew its own map. There was not much in accusations of gerrymandering, but a few people did point the finger.

Regardless, right on schedule, the 2019 election resulted in a PC Minority with a Green official opposition.

It remains to be seen of the PEI Reverse Gerrymander will continue.

Sunday, April 28, 2019

Spain may face another election

While there are still some ballots left to count, the results appear to be as follows:

123 - PSOE - Social Democrat
68 - PP - Conservative (incl NA+)
57 - C's - Liberal
43 - Podemos - Left (incl Comp)
24 - Vox - Nationalist
15 - ERC - Left Catalonian Separatist
7 - JxCat - Right Catalonian Separatist
6 - PNV - Right Basque Regionalist
4 - EHB - Left Basque Separatist
2 - CCa-PNC - Canary Islands Regionalists
1 - PRC - Regionalists (Cantabria) 
0 - PAC - Pro-Animal Rights

This can be summed up as follows:

123 - Socialist
68 - Conservative
57 - Liberal
43 - Left
24 - Nationalist
26 - Various Separatists
9 - Various Regionalists

A coalition between the Socialists, Left, and Regionalists would be 1 seat short of a Majority, meaning any such left coalition would have to include Separatist parties. 

A coalition between the Liberals, Conservatives, and Nationalists meanwhile is quite far off the mark, being dozens of seats short. 

The Socialists and Liberals could form a majority, having 180 seats in the 350 seat assembly; but the Liberals seem unwilling to do so (however, their mind may change if another election looms) 

Another, more radical possibility, may be a grand coalition between the Socialists and Conservatives, but this is perhaps unlikely. 

As always, I will update you with more information as things progress. 

Saturday, April 27, 2019

Newfoundland non-projection update

As outlined on the image, I'm trying something new; all my Newfoundland non-projections will be done this way, and no mathematical projections will be done.

Thursday, April 25, 2019

Newfoundland election non projection

I've not yet had time to dig into the polls in Newfoundland and Labrador in any great detail; however I've skimmed a few of them, and, produced a map. I'd like to walk you through the process of creating the map.

1 - Objective:
To update my 2015 map for use in 2019

2 - Method:
To show a "tie" as the result

3 - Process:
Using the election atlas, and eyeballing it

4 - Completion:
Making sure both parties have 19 seats and the NDP has 2

This is the resulting map:

Spanish Election Projection

With the polling holiday in full swing, I've decided to release a projection based on polls from before the polling ban started:

121 - PSOE - Social Democrat
79 - PP - Conservative
50 - C's - Liberal
38 - Podemos - Left
35 - Vox - Nationalist
13 - ERC - Left Catalonian Separatist
6 - PNV - Right Basque Regionalist
4 - JxCat - Right Catalonian Separatist
3 - EHB - Left Basque Separatist
1 - PAC - Pro-Animal Rights

176 needed for majority

Some math:

159 - PSOE + Podemos
167 - PP + C's + Vox
181 - PSOE + C's

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Monday, April 22, 2019

PEI - final projection

The Greens are in the drivers seat for this election, and are likely to win the most seats.

It is difficult to pinpoint exact ridings that can or will be won for various reasons. Regardless, the Greens should end with the largest number of seats. Currently, the PC Party seems set to finish second, as the Liberals seem to be more on a downward trend.

Friday, April 19, 2019

Alberta results.

Still 1 more box per riding, so I've blanked out any riding with a margin under 5%

Thursday, April 18, 2019

PEI, Penultimate projection

A new poll, showing the Greens at 40%, ahead of the Liberals and Tories, both below 30%, has caused me to make a new projection:

Since there are now two clear alternatives presented in polling; a 3-way race vs a Green majority, I will need to think about which I feel is more liable to be accurate. When I'm done that thinking, I will release a final projection.

A sidenote, for anyone looking for a red coloured star in a PC riding, you won't find one.

Wednesday, April 17, 2019

PEI election projection

With so few polls and such a small voterbase, projections are very difficult for PEI; but regardless, here is what I currently have.

Given how much of this is "educated guesswork" its unlikely that even if we do get more polling that I'd do a further projection. We'd need to see polling indicate some kind of change in the trend for me to do that.

Monday, April 15, 2019

Alberta election projections

I wanted to go through the process of making an election projection with Alberta as the target. I began by doing a poll average of all 10 polls since the election began.

This is what I end up with. Next I need to add my adjustments for Edmonton and Calgary, as, Calgary is less pro-blue and Edmonton more pro-blue when compared to last election.

As you can see, not much change in sum, but a few ridings do flip.

An important step is to take account for who is running and where. This changes further ridings. Note a counting error on the map (which I've decided not to change to explain how these happen) with the Alberta Party. Since there are more UCP ridings than any other, I simply counted all the non-UCP seats, tapping my finger, or a pen, on the screen to count each one.

After I got that total, I added this up, and subtracted 87, which gave me 56. As such, both the Alberta Party and the UCP have the wrong number of seats shown. However, it is not the number of seats, but the seats themselves which I've calculated in my spreadsheet. As such, that is correct, and the numbers are simply a bonus I've included so you don't have to count them yourself; however in the event the two do not match, its the number of splotches on the map which is correct.

When I colour in the ridings, I paint by number. If my spreadsheet tells me riding #04 is NDP, I find it, and colour it in orange. This can lead to errors when the number on my spreadsheet is wrong, or, when my spreadsheet does not have numbers, only names. In these cases I can misread things, or, in the worst case, mix up a Moncton Centre for a Saint John Centre, as I've done before.

Regardless, on to the next map, which takes trends, expectations, and my gut into account!

This is where things really change. Its harder to explain "why" a lot of this happens, as its heavily based on my gut and instinct. In order to make sure I'm still grounded, this is the next step:

When I make my projections, this is the step I adjust the most. During any random given election, I will tend to intentionally do at least one projection with this dialed up to 11, and one with this set to minimum; and this is how you can sometimes see wild swings in my numbers when the polls are stable.

This is because "how biased am I" is not an easy question to answer. One question in particular that I do not get nearly as often as I should, is "what do (I) want to happen"

This is the answer to that question. you'll note some perhaps strange riding swaps. I like it when all parties are competitive in all areas. I like it when smaller parties do well. In particular, I like the fact that Alberta changed their government from the one who governed it since the 70s. Am I thus always biased towards the NDP? Heck no, I want the BC NDP to lose. I also want the NB NDP to do poorly, but I want the Manitoba NDP to do well. I want Tories to win in Nova Scotia, but lose in New Brunswick. I want the Greens to win in PEI but to fail to win any seats in Manitoba.

It is very rare that who I want to win and who I want to lose is based on policy. Its frequently based on novelty, change, and making pretty maps. It is very rare that I actually have real position on a big issue.

Despite that, I do still want the NDP to continue in government in Alberta. No government in Alberta has ever "returned" to power. No government has lasted less than three terms. I want these two things to continue.

Despite that

I can't see how the UCP does not fails to win a majority tomorrow.

Finland election result

There may still be a few ballots left to count that can change things, but as of right now, results are as follows:

40 - Social Democrats
39 - Nationalists
38 - Moderates
31 - Nordic Liberals
20 - Greens
16 - Left
9 - Swedish Minority
5 - Christian Democrat
2 - Others

The Nationalists, under their new leader, proves too far right to remain in the right-wing coalition, as such, it is extremely unlikely that the Social Democrats would want to sit with the Nationalists. As such I will present the most likely coalitions.

You need 101 seats for a majority.

For the Nationalists to form a coalition, they would need to find 62 additional seats. If they managed to get the Christian Democrats and the 2 Others on board, this brings that number down to 55. Even if the Swedish party joined in, this brings that down to 46. This would mean two other parties, and the Nordic Liberals and Moderates both refused to sit with the Nationalists, under their new leader, in the current government. As such any coalition that includes the Nationalists is unlikely.

For the current government, whose core is the Moderates and Nordic Liberals, to continue, they would require 32. With the Christian Democrats, Other parties, and Swedish party, this brings things down to 15. While the Greens or Left party could complete this, it is simply more likely for the parties to sit with the Social Democrats instead. As such, we will look at them in the lead of a coalition.

With the Greens and Left, the Social Democrats would still need 25 additional seats, meaning either the Moderates or the Nordic Liberals.

A Social Democrat coalition is more likely to include the Nordic Liberals than the Moderates. Their combined total is 71, meaning a need for 30 additional seats. There are two ways to obtain these seats. First, is to bring the Moderates into the coalition. Second, is to bring the Greens, Swedish Minority, and one of the "Other" parties into it. Both are somewhat likely, and will depend on how the negotiations progress. My money is on a coalition over the centre, including the Social Democrats, Moderates, and Nordic Liberals.

Friday, April 12, 2019

Australia to vote on May 18th (and a finland 'projection')

Australia will be holding elections this spring after all. As such I'd like to outline the schedule for the next few weeks.

14th - Finland
16th - Alberta
17th - Indonesia
21st - Ukraine
23rd - PEI
May 2nd - UK Local elections
8th - South Africa
18th - Australia
19th - India (final round)
26th - Belgium
June 17th - Denmark

Finland has not had many polls; but using the latest poll and adding the current trendline to it, we get the following numbers:

40 - Social Democrats
36 - Nationalists
32 - Moderates
32 - Nordic Liberalism
24 - Greens
16 - Left
10 - Swedish Minority
10 - Christian Democrat

These numbers are quick and rough estimates, so take them with a grain of salt. Regardless, 101 is needed for a majority. This would give the Social Democrats the prime position. The last government they were in was a grand coalition covering the centre, where they were one of the Jr Partners. Prior to this they made up the bulk of a government headed by the Centre Party, the Nordic Liberals. The last government they lead was also across the centre.

A coalition between the Social Democrats, Moderates, and Liberals is thus possible. However, given history, it is also possible that a more left leaning coalition of the Social Democrats, Centre Party, Greens, and the Swedish Party, could form.

Thursday, April 11, 2019

Israel - full results

Sorry for the short post; but I just wanted to break the parties down into their component parts, so that people can see where those member parties stand in the event the larger party breaks apart.

36 - Likud
15 - Yesh Atid (B&W)
14 - Resilience (B&W)
8 - Shas
6 - Telem (B&W)
6 - Labour
5 - Yisrael Beiteinu
4 - Agudat Israel (UTJ)
4 - Hadash (Arab Oppo)
4 - Meretz
4 - Kulanu
3 - Degel HaTorah (UTJ)
3 - Jewish Home (United Right)
2 - Ta'al (Arab Oppo)
2 - Tkuma (United Right)
2 - Balad (Arab List)
2 - UAL (Arab List)

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Alberta "Projection"

This will likely be the only projection I do of Alberta (unless we get a ton of polls in the last few days here) and its not a poll average; rather, its based on my gut feeling that the polls are over-estimating Jason Kenney.

Khan is likely to take his own seat. This is a change from when the election started; but he seems to be doing a well enough job at the campaign to gain a seat for himself.

The Alberta Party as well is doing well, and as such, will likely take multiple seats. Which seats remains hard to say, but these are the three that make the most sense to me at the current time.

Due to what I expect to be UCP weakness, the FCP wins a seat as does Strankman.

Israel - election results

First a quick note that an Alberta "projection" will come out in a few days. Now, on to Israel.

Counting is still being completed, and so some of these may change by a seat or two, and parties right on the edge of the threshold (Arab List and New Right) might find themselves swapping places, but, otherwise, the results are as follows:

35 - Likud
35 - Blue & White
8 - Shas
8 - UTJ
6 - Arab Opposition
6 - Labour
5 - Yisrael Beiteinu
5 - United Right
4 - Meretz (3.64%)
4 - Kunalu (3.56%)
4 - Arab List (3.46%)
0 - New Right (3.14%)
0 - Zehut (2.51%)
0 - Gesher (1.74%)
next largest party on 0.11% of the vote

Grouping this, we end up with results as follows.

35 - Likud
35 - Blue & White
16 - Orthodox
10 - Arabs
10 - Progressives
10 - Pro-Bibi Right
4 - Moderates

Further logical grouping shows us the result of the election

61 - Pro-Bibi
45 - Pro-Gantz
10 - Arabs
4 - Moderates

As such, Netanyahu has effectively been re-elected.

Saturday, April 6, 2019

Israeli election - coalitions

An interesting, somewhat explosive article, in Haaretz, outlines some coalition possibilities. 

Lets start with who is willing to coalition with either side, using these numbers from my last post:

44 - Progressive (Blue&White + Labour + Meretz)
38 - Bibi (Likud + Yisrael Beiteinu + United Right)
11 - Orthodox Parties (Shas + UTJ)
6 - New Right
5 - Zehut
5 - Kulanu
11 - Opposition* (Arab List + Arab Opposition)

If we combine those willing to coalition with either side, we get the following:

55 - Gantz (Blue&White + Labour + Meretz + Arabs)
49 - Bibi (Likud + Yisrael Beiteinu + United Right + Shas + New Right)
16 - Either (UTJ + Zehut + Kulanu)

While UTJ (to my knowledge) has not ruled out a coalition with Gantz, for many reasons, it makes more sense to lump them into the Bibi camp.

55 - Gantz (Blue&White + Labour + Meretz + Arabs)
55 - Bibi (Likud + Yisrael Beiteinu + United Right + Shas + New Right + UTJ)
10 - Either (Zehut + Kulanu)
This is where we run into the problem that both Kulanu and Zehut want the finance portfolio. It is quite possible, however, that Zehut could be convinced to join at another price. So what would these two alternative possible governments look like.

65 seat Bibi government
29 - Likud
6 - United Right
6 - UTJ
5 - New Right
5 - Shas
5 - Zehut
5 - Kulanu
4 - Yisrael Beiteinu

This would be a terribly unstable government prone to infighting and likely would not last very long; with another election thus being likely in early 2020.

65 seat Gantz government
29 - Blue & White
10 - Labour
7 - Arab Opposition
5 - Meretz
5 - Zehut
5 - Kulanu
4 - Arab List

This government however would be nearly impossible. It would require both arab parties for a comfortable majority (65 seats) and at least the Tibi-Hadash alliance for a bare majority (61) Gantz himself has said he is not keen on a coalition with the arab parties, and trying to get the more moderate parties (Kulanu and Zehut) on board with pro-arab policies would be difficult if not impossible. This government would likely not even be able to form

Option 3 - Defections

29 - Likud or Blue&White
10 - Defectors
26 - Others (United Right + UTJ + New Right + Shas + Yisrael Beiteinu, or, Labour + Combined Arabs + Meretz) 

More likely coming from Blue&White and going to Likud than the opposite, it is possible that a subset of MK's from either 'side' could break off from their parties to form their own, new, grouping. The group perhaps most susceptible to this is either Blue & White, potentially involving Moshe Ya'alon, with an Anti-bibi faction from Likud being much less likely. It is also possible, especially from the smaller parties with very large-personalty leaders (New Right, Kulanu, Zehut, and Yisrael Beiteinu) could have their MK's abandon the leader if they feel he has put the wrong foot forward. 

Regardless, this is likely going to be one of the more interesting and exciting elections and coalition formations in Israel.

Thursday, April 4, 2019

Israel election projection

Scenario 1 - Gantz!

In this scenario, voters have concluded that Gantz is a good choice. This scenario most closely matches the polls as they stood today; the last day of polling. This sees little change from now to the election, and little to no "surprises". 

30 - Blue & White
28 - Likud
10 - Labour
7 - Arab Opposition
6 - New Right
6 - UTJ
5 - Zehut
5 - Shas
5 - United Right
5 - Kulanu
5 - Meretz
4 - Arab List
4 - Yisrael Beiteinu

The end result of this in terms of possible coalitions is as follows.

45 - Progressive (Blue&White + Labour + Meretz)
37 - Bibi (Likud + Yisrael Beiteinu + United Right)
11 - Orthodox Parties (Shas + UTJ)
6 - New Right
5 - Zehut
5 - Kulanu
11 - Opposition* (Arab List + Arab Opposition)

*Gantz has indicated he does not want to enter into a coalition with Arab parties.

This is continued below.

Scenario 2 - Gantz?

In this scenario, voters still have reservations about Gantz. The result of this is that left-progressive types vote for parties outside of Blue & White, Labour is up as a result, as is Meretz. The United Right also gets a boost as "not voting" is an option, and if people have reservations about Gantz, those thinking of "not voting" might well decide to vote. This boosts the vote for all right-wing parties, with United Right being close to this level of support. Yisrael Beiteinu however drops below the threshold. This is in large part due to how their voters seem to behave in polling; indicating that any rush to Likud - as you might want to do to ensure they are the largest party - would harm the party.

32 - Likud
26 - Blue & White
12 - Labour
7 - Arab Opposition
6 - United Right
6 - New Right
6 - UTJ
6 - Meretz
5 - Zehut
5 - Shas
5 - Kulanu
4 - Arab List
0 - Yisrael Beiteinu

44 - Progressive (Blue&White + Labour + Meretz)
38 - Bibi (Likud + Yisrael Beiteinu + United Right)
11 - Orthodox Parties (Shas + UTJ)
6 - New Right
5 - Zehut
5 - Kulanu
11 - Opposition* (Arab List + Arab Opposition)

As you can see, this is very close to the result in Scenario 1, with a difference of a single seat.

Any Progressive alliance would require the two more centrist parties, Zehut and Kulanu, which would increase their numbers to 54 or 55. The final party will be very difficult to find. New Right might have demands Meretz can not live with, much less Labour. If New Right is swapped for Meretz, this brings us to 55 seats in both scenarios, and this would still require an additional party, such as one or both orthodox parties, but this would be difficult of Zehut is to remain.

Bibi has options of his own. The orthodox parties bring him up up to 49 or 48. New Right would bring this to 55/54, but is dependant on Bennett and Bibi patching things up. From there, again, things get complicated. Kulanu is a harder sell given that Bibi is being charged with corruption. Zehut is also difficult to get on side if there are plans to keep the Orthodox parties.

the end result is that 5 parties; UTJ, Shas, New Right, Zehut, and Kulanu, will end up deciding who the next government is.

Of course, this all assumes that Gantz will stick to his promise to not sit in a Bibi government.

edited to add - I forgot to clarify that the projection is "final" as Israeli law prohibits polls in the final 5 days of a campaign.

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

Ukraine, Israel, etc, and why I don't do US politics much

Zelensky, as expected, won the first round of the presidential election, taking 30.2% of the vote. Incumbent Present, Poroshenko, managed to come second at 15.9%, beating former PM Tymoshenko, at 13.4%, who had been polling ahead of him for most of the election.

Its very likely Zelensky wins the second round as well. April 21st is the date for that vote. Parliamentary elections in the country take place in the fall.

We are nearing the end of the polling period (April 4th) for the election (April 9th) but the trend continues to be that noted earlier, and a Likud victory is more likely now than it was a few weeks ago, mostly due to voters who had considered Blue & White looking to other options instead. Interestingly, Zehut does seem pretty solid ahead of the threshold.

There have been a grand total of 2 polls (that I have access to) since the election really began on the 8th of March. I simply lack the data to speak on this.

To put it bluntly, there are too many other elections with a greater rate of interest going on right now for me to cover this election in detail.

I am keeping an eye on the "election" here, but it does not seem free or fair. I may do an update when a new government is formed.

Mostly stable in the context we are following since the last updates.

To put it mildly, the main reason I don't cover the US more is that the first question that comes to my mind when I think of the Finnish election is "Where is all the polls". The Thai elections "how many votes did the parties actually take". The Spanish election "will it be PSOE and C's?". For America? The question I have in mind right now is "Why can't Biden be the nominee due to his non-consensual touching of women when Trump can be despite his non-consensual touching of women?"

I hope that makes it clear why I steer clear of this country like the plague.