Thursday, November 30, 2017


For today's post I thought I would share some of the resources I use; some of which I pointed to yesterday.

I visit this probably once a day. This website is extremely handy for easily finding past riding results without digging through pages on wikipedia. Additionally, it has poll by poll results for many recent elections, and, clearly shows exactly where riding boundaries are on a map. Results go back to the 50s in some cases.

Run by the University of Laval, this website contains the political platforms (manifestos) of federal and provincial parties for elections going back decades. It can be interesting to compare the platforms of the election winner to their actions once they get into office.

Want to know what is next? This is a great way to do so. From what I can tell, this evolved from a page I started in 2003 to keep track of all the various provincial elections in Canada.

The following pages are examples, and the true resource value is in looking for similar examples in your own searches.,_2017#Polling_4

Due to how very easy it is to both prove and disprove the numbers in question, wikipedia is an excellent source for polling information on elections.,_2017#Results

By a similar token, wikipedia also tends to have accurate election result figures. Trust the numbers more than the analysis however.

Sometimes it helps to go straight to the source. Most modern browsers will translate into english from nearly any language. On this page in particular, I'm waiting for the merger of the 3 various factions of the Democratic Party so I can report it.

I check this page once in a while to see if there is anything new or unusual going on. Most provinces have similar pages, and many other countries will as well.

Twitter is what you make of it. If you want a quality twitter, do not follow your friends. Follow those who you trust to give you the best information in the quickest and most accurate manner. Be that journalists, politicians, or random bloggers. Twitter can be a great resource for breaking the news, and most of the breaking news I see, I will read on twitter 5-15 minutes before I read anywhere else.

For large conflicts, Wikipedia tends to keep fairly up to date maps. Wikipedia's weakness - that anyone can update a page - is also its greatest strength. Just as anyone can edit in fake information, anyone can edit that information back out; and on pages like this with a following, there is always someone there to say "where is your evidence of that change"

Whenever there is an election somewhere in the world, going straight to the source can be your best ticket to information. A quick google of "_countryname_ election commission" can often get you started.

Where that fails, looking for the top TV channels and Newspapers in a country can help you find one that is covering the results.


Do not under-estimate the power of a simple search for "election" with the filter that the stream be live. It has saved my butt many times, and provided hours of entertainment.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Introduction to Ontario

Ontario is the largest province in Canada in terms of population and has been since Canada's founding in 1867. Population trends suggest this is unlikely to be changed any time in the next century.

Ontario contains 38.38% of the Canadian population. 29.3% is visibile minorities, with 8.7% of Ontario being South Asian, 5.7% being Chinese, 4.7% being Black, 2.4% Filipino, 1.8% First Nations, 1.6% Arab, and 1.5% from Latin America. In terms of Religion, roughly 1/3rd of Ontario identifies as Catholic, 1/3rd as Protestant, 2/9ths as Atheist, and 1/9th as a mix of various other religions including Islam (4.6% of total population), Hindu (2.9%), Jewish (1.5%), Sikh (1.4%), and Buddhist (1.3%).

Toronto is Ontario's Capital and largest city, containing 2,731,571 residents, and much starker demographics, with 51.5% identifying as visible minorities; including 12.6% South Asian, 11.1% Chinese, 8.9% Black, 5.7% Filipino, 2.9% Latin American, 2.2% West Asian*, 1.5% Southeast Asian, 1.5% Korean, and 1.3% Arab.
* in this context, mostly Iranian.

Toronto also contains concentrations of Ontario's non-christian population, including Islam at 8.2%, Hinduism at 5.6%, and Judaism at 3.8%.

Other municipalities near Toronto also contain concentrations of various visible minority groups; Markham is 45.1% Chinese, Brampton is 44.3% South Asian, Ajax is 16% Black, and Vaughan is 15% Jewish.

This all has impacts on the electoral map. For example, most of Ontario's Jewish population is concentrated along Bathurst Street, from Eglinton, into Vaughan. This means ridings such as Eglinton-Lawrence, York Centre, Willowdale, and Thornhill are especially sensitive to issues impacting this community.

The majority of the population in Ontario is concentrated in the Golden Horseshoe, which includes the Greater Toronto Area. Most of Ontario's largest municipalities are included within this area, with the largest municipalities outside the area being Ottawa, London, and Windsor.

Ontario's first election, in 1867, was "won" by the Conservatives, over the Liberals. In reality, the Tories and Grits tied at 41 seats each, but the Conservative leader was able to convince some moderate Liberals to join with him in a coalition. The following election in 1871 was won by the Liberals, who held office until their 1905 defeat.

This began Ontario's longest, though interrupted, political dynasty.

In 1919 the United Farmers and their more urban Labour allies, won an election and governed for 4 years. In 1934 the Liberals won a majority, and governed until 1943. The 1943 victory of the Progressive Conservatives marked and unbroken string of victories that would last until 1985.

With the aforementioned governments lead by other parties as exceptions, and minority governments in the periods from 1943-1945, and 1975-1981, the Tories held government from 1905 to 1985.

The 1985 election would see the Tories win 52 seats, compared to 48 for the Liberals and 25 for the NDP. The Liberals, however, won the popular vote, 38% to 37% to the Tories, and 24% for the NDP. The NDP decided to support a minority Liberal government

That Liberal government would continue until 1987 when, the Liberals called an election and managed to win a large majority, 95 seats compared to 19 for the NDP and 16 for the Tories. When Peterson called a snap election just 3 years later, hoping to retain his large majority, the voters turned on him. The result was a majority for the NDP, a result unexpected even by top New Democrats, including incoming Premier, Bob Rae.

The elected Rae NDP government failed to properly deal with a minor recession, and in 1995, was defeated by Mike Harris and the Tories. Harris campaigned heavily on a very right-wing economic message of lower taxes and cuts to welfare, known as the Common Sense Revolution. (An aside, 31 different ridings voted for each of the past 3 governments)

In 1999 the number of ridings (constituencies) in Ontario was reduced to better match the Federal ridings. At the time, Ontario was seeing 4% growth, and Harris managed re-election, but by 2003 the Tories were suffering from unpopularity related to their steep cuts to government funding. The election saw a majority of seats go to Dalton McGuinty and the Liberals.

The 2007 election saw the Liberals enter while somewhat unpopular. Part of the reason for their victory, however, came in the fact that the PC leader managed to stick his foot in his mouth by committing to funding expanded religious education, a policy that proved unpopular among voters. 2011 saw more general mistakes by the PC Party leading to yet another Liberal Majority, despite strong polling for the Tories.

By 2014, Kathleen Wynne had become Premier and Liberal Leader. The PC Party managed to lose, in great part, due to their "1 million jobs plan" which called for the creation of a million jobs over a number of years, but the cutting of 100,000 jobs in the short term. Additionally the plan suffered from a massive math error.

This brings us to the next election, in 2018.

Three major parties are contesting the election, as well as two other parties of note.

Ontario Liberal Party

Lead by Kathleen Wynne, the Liberals have held government since 2003. The party has been slowly shifting from a more centrist position under McGuinty, to a more progressive track under Wynne. The party is generally centrist to left-of-centre, but is increasingly unpopular due to various scandals. The party currently holds 56 seats

The Liberals will be struggling to hold on after 15 years in government, and facing various scandals related to wasteful government spending.

Ontario Progressive Conservatives

Lead by Patrick Brown, the PC Party has struggled to win elections in the past decade and a half. Under Brown, the party has been moving towards the centre, and been gathering a large number of star candidates over the past year or two. The party currently holds 29 seats.

Most of the polls for the past number of months and years have shown the PC party leading, and there is a good chance that they can win the election.

Ontario New Democratic Party

Lead by Andrew Horwath, the NDP is a left-wing pro-Labour party. The party has been fairly moderate under Horwath. The NDP has struggled to gain traction since the disastrous Rae government, and remains somewhat unpopular, especially when voters consider the usual Liberal Vs Tory race for the top. The party currently holds 19 seats.

The NDP's best chances come from a collapse of the Liberals. Many of the ridings where the NDP does best are places where the Liberals present the largest challenge. A strong PC campaign means these ridings only become more, not less safe. This handy resource can help you see that.

Green Party of Ontario

Part of the worldwide Green movement, the Green Party of Ontario is a sister party, on a provincial level, to the federal Green Party of Canada. The GPO in particular, in Canada, was known for being much more Eco-Capitalist, or Blue-Green, than the GPC. For a time, the GPO and GPC had bad relations due to that, and both are seperate parties.

The best chance for the Greens comes in Guelph, where the party has some base of support. The leader ran there last election and some political insiders (even in other parties) have heard that there is a good chance for a victory there in 2018

Trillium Party of Ontario

This is a small right-wing party that currently holds 1 seat in the Legislature due to a defection. This is not unknown in Canada. In 2005 DRBC was in this position, as well as WCC in Saskatchewan in 1985, the Progressives in Manitoba in 1981, or Reform in Alberta in 1982. None of these parties managed to win any seats, even though the latter two were actually founded by their defecting MPs (these parties tend to do far better, but, even then, they have not come close to winning re-election)

The main narrative of this campaign for political junkies is if the PC Party can manage an entire campaign without making a major mistake. To that end the party has released its platform early. The 80 page document (the platform itself begins on page 31) spells out what a Patrick Brown lead PC Majority would do in office.

The platform does not or even imply cuts to Ontario's welfare system, something most previous platforms have done. (to view previous platforms, go to this website from the university of laval)

The platform is extremely moderate, and after a careful look, there is almost nothing that the other parties can attack, the only thing being near the bottom of page 76, their budget.

These two lines are where the bulk of the money will come from to pay for the remaining PC promises. What I've noticed from this is twofold.

First: The "Value for Money Audit" is their way of saying they will simply 'find the money' by saving money in operation of current programs.

Second, the "Cap-and-Trade" fund. From this they expect to gain 2 billion dollars. The plan for the Tories is to cancel Cap-and-Trade and replace it with a Carbon Tax. Part of the problem here is that according to the (Liberal) Government, Cap-and-Trade won't cost 1.9 Billion, but will bring in 1.9 Billion in revenue. Additionally, the Carbon tax is nowhere in this document.

I therefore do not understand exactly where this money will actually be coming from, and it is possible that some of this is yet another embarrassing math error.

Despite that, I do think that releasing such a moderate platform so early before the election, especially one this detailed* will help the party.

*The 2018 platform is 80 pages long, compared to 26 for 2014, 44 for 2011, 61 for 2007, 123 in 2003, 54 in 1999, and 23 in 1995. It should be noted that the 2018 "platform" starts 30 pages in, but, due to text size, does retain its status as '2nd longest' even compared to 2007 or 1999.

At current, my projection is for a PC victory. Using a math based projection, I have the following results:

This would be a disaster for the Liberals, who, despite finishing 2nd in popular vote, would finish 3rd in terms of seats.

This is assuming the PC Party can and will retain its strong polling position, but that the Liberals will drop a few points as it becomes clear they will not win.

The Greens also win a seat in this projection simply based on the math.

So what can change? There are two simple ways that the Liberals can win.

1 - Screw Ups.

This would fit in with 'tradition' in recent elections. There are a number of ways this could happen.

A - Math Error
That 'error' I found in the budget could turns out to be a real error and not just my misunderstanding.

B - Brown Mistake
In this we would see Patrick Brown make a mistake. I've watched his convention speech and he seemed nervous and anxious, it is possible he could crack under the pressure.

C - Bozo Eruption
This has PC Candidates saying or doing stupid things that make voters fear that the party is still right-wing and "scary"

2 - Liberal Boldness.

For this the options are much, much more limited. In fact, as I see it, there is only one.

A - Basic Income.
The Liberal Party comes out in support of a Basic Income for all of Ontario.

Outside of these, I see the PC Party winning the next election with a majority.

Of course, the election is June 7th, which is more than 7 months away, and things can change.

Later post on Ontario and Update on Iceland, Germany, and Ireland

Iceland has, somewhat surprisingly, a new government. The Left-Greens will lead a government coalition including the conservative Independence party, and the liberal Progressives. The 3 parties meet today with their own memberships to finalize the agreement.

Germany wont even begin talks until the new year, which means any rejection wont be known for weeks, and a risk of an election is thus weeks away.

Ireland solved its political dispute by having the deputy PM (tanaiste) step aside, quashing the chance for a snap election.

As such, I will look at Ontario, the largest province of Canada and home to Teddy, author of this blog.

This post will come out in only a few hours. Since it is planned to be an introduction post, one I can reference for years to come, I will separate it from the above.

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Lack of Government? Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland has lacked a government for some months after Stormont collapsed.

However, there is no total and complete lack of government. In fact, local councils (comparable to Municipalities or County level in Canada and the USA) continue to operate.

Here is a map of the councils and their political makeup.

As you can see, the map is colour coded.

Here is another map showing the party that finished in first in each DEA

The DEAs are generally similar in size, but not exactly. Armagh (district 6 on the upper map) would need an extra DEA for their DEAs to be similar in size to the others, while Belfast, the Capital, would need three more. Regardless, you could consider this a fun experiment in "what if Northern Ireland had FPTP elections" in which case you would see the following:

40 DUP
26 SF

Meaning the DUP won exactly half the DEAs in Northern Ireland.

Despite this, none of the 11 councils are controlled by a single party.

Control of local councils, Unionist vs Nationalist, can be seen in the upper right. Belfast is balanced, and as such, neither 'side' has control. For reference, the Westminster result is shown in the upper left.

The "long story short" of all of this is that local government does, in fact, continue in Northern Ireland, even if Stormont is shut down. Westminster itself also continues. In the Canadian context, it is like both Toronto City Hall and the Federal government operating while the Provincial level is not.

Prior to 1972, Stormont, and local government, was dominated by Protestants, mostly due to the design of the system.

From then to 1998, despite repeated attempts at a working assembly, local councils remained the only stable local governance.

In short; Northern Ireland has been through all of this before.

Monday, November 27, 2017

Queensland, and week update

I've taken a look at the ABC's election projections, and wish to detail what is going on.

Aspley, Bonney, Burdekin, Gaven, Pumicestone, and Townsville, are all tight 2 way races between the ALP and LNP

Maiwar may have the wrong 2PP. In fact, this is the problem that I've noticed more than the ABC has, where preference flows mean the current 2PP count could be simply wrong as the wrong candidate was chosen. Because of that, this seat could go LNP, ALP, or GRN.

Hintchbrook (KAP, LNP) may also have the wrong 2PP, however, due to the positioning of the parties, even if it does, neither ALP or ONP can win.

Rockhambton is more of a mess with an Independent involved. Strelow, a local Mayor, was a former Labor member who is seen as moderate, is currently shown in the lead; but preference flows in the right direction could position other parties well; however, as odd as it sounds, only Strelow is positioned to win, as she would defeat any opponent in a head to head competition, and is transfer-friendly enough to guarantee a position on the final ballot, meaning I'm marking this seat as a clear victory for the Independent.

Using these numbers, the projection would see 48 ALP members elected, 40 LNP, and 5 others, 1 ONP, 3 KAP, and 1 IND.

However, some of the seats ABC is certain about, I am not so certain.

In Macalister I dug into Hetty Johnston, the Independent. Looked at her 2004 Senate preference flows (it should be noted that her 2004 Senate run is not even mentioned on Wikipedia) and after concluding that while she might gain some Green preferences, it was more likely she'd gain right-wing preferences, I concluded the LNP candidate would probably be able to beat her to the final round, which means an ALP victory here, as the ABC says.

In Buderim, its quite possible that ALP not ONP will advance to the final round; but LNP's lead likely means they beat both.

Cairns has a strong Independent, but again, his views would not enable him to get the transfers he needs, and an ALP victory here is likely.

Southern Downs is a similar story; the Independent here needs Green transfers but has posted support of ONP as a #2 vote on his Facebook, and thus won't be getting Green transfers anytime soon, meaning an LNP victory here is correct.

Callide has no major Independent, but rather it is ALP who needs KAP preferences; but KAP has preferenced ONP #2, and thus, LNP will win here as well.

Lastly, Cook and Thuringowa, where had KAP gone LNP, the LNP would likely have won these seats, but with ONP heading to the final round against ALP, both are ALP victories.

As such, my research has shown no change from the ABC projection.

48 ALP - 35.9%
40 LNP - 33.6%
3 KAP - 2.3%
1 ONP - 13.7%
0 GRN - 9.7%
1 OTH - 4.9%

In other news, I am going to try to push out one post a day for this week as I was encouraged to do so by a reader. Tomorrow will see a post on Northern Ireland, followed by the Republic of Ireland on Wednesday. Thursday will see an update on Germany, with Friday seeing an update on Iceland. Both of those latter two depend on both not yet finishing coalition negotiations and on elections being likely; if elections become unlikely, I will instead focus on an area where an election will occur within the next year or two.

Friday, November 24, 2017

Elections; Queensland, and update on Germany/Iceland

Queensland goes to the polls tomorrow. Polls close around sunrise here in the eastern time zone. Most polls indicate a narrow Labor victory, but polls prior to the last election indicated a LNP victory and Labor won. It should also be noted that One Nation (often described as "the racist party") is doing well and could win a handful of seats; it may be enough to force either Labor or the LNP to a minority.

Germany's coalition negotiations have failed after the Liberals pulled out. Another election is likely, with polls showing only minor changes from the results of the last election.

Iceland is looking at a coalition between Independence, the Left-Greens, and the Progressives. Polls show if another election is held, the Social Democrats would likely swap places with the Left-Greens as the largest left party.

Lastly a personal update; I've become an election administrator for that CMHoC sim I've spoken about, and this is consuming some of my time as we are having a by-election for a vacant seat. New players are always welcome, but be prepared for high-school level memes.

Friday, November 17, 2017

Timing comparisons, Canada VS other nations

I wanted to go through the process of readying for an election, having an election, voting, counting the ballots, preparing for government, installing a new government, and starting the process of governing; for Canada and compare this to some select other countries.

For this example we will be assuming the sitting government is defeated.


In Canada, at least until a few years ago when "fixed election dates" became common, the sitting Government can call the election whenever it pleases. Nova Scotia, without fixed election dates, still operates this way.

At some point, the Premier of Nova Scotia will decide to call an election. Usually when this happens there is between a few days and a few weeks of lead time. This is after the decision has been made, in private, but before the election has been announced publicly. In Nova Scotia elections must be on a Tuesday, and, the election period (also known as the writ) must be at least 30 days long. If an election is called on a Sunday, the writ period is exactly 30 days long as minimum, but if called on a Saturday, because of the Tuesday rule, the period would be 31 days long. For this reason it is usually decided a few days before an election is called, as there is a need to wait for the proper "day of the week" to make the call if, as is usual, the shortest possible election period is to be used.

This period of a few days can unofficially be thought of, in the context of some other nations, as the start of the caretaker period.

Once the writ is dropped, the election act comes into full force, and an election officially begins.

Election day will see no campaigning, and ballot booths are open for, usually, roughly 12 hours, closing somewhere around 8pm. Once the booths close, election results coverage begins. Ballots are counted in place, with each polling location locking the doors and physically counting the ballots. As there can be hundreds of polling booths in each constituency, they will report their results at different times, as such, the results slowly roll in over the course of hours with more and more of the results becoming available. Generally by midnight, the results are clear; but this is midnight local to the count, which can be 4:30am in some parts of Canada federally as Canada consists of multiple time zones.

Following this, results are officially validated. Federally this can take up to 2 weeks, roughly. It should be noted that of all the elections since the end of WW2, never has the total whole result of a general election (as in who has 'won' the government) changed during this period. The closest is in 1972 when two ridings in BC were showing leads by the Tories (that is, the polling booths that had been counted indicated more votes for the PC Party) but by sunrise the next morning, both had, in fact, been won by the Liberals.

If a government is defeated, a "transition" period begins. The government that was defeated remains in office during this time. Generally, this period takes roughly 2 weeks, but can be longer or shorter pending the wishes of the incoming leader.

While coalitions are rare in Canada, if there were to be a coalition, it would be negotiated during this transition period. Canadians would generally expect that within 3 or so weeks of the election, the new government would be fully in place.

On that date, the new Premier/Prime Minister is sworn in alongside his or her cabinet, which has been chosen during that 2 week transition period.

Parliament, or the Legislature as the case may be, will then meet and government will begin. How long this takes can vary wildly. Generally, houses only meet during the spring and fall, so a summer election may see months go by without such a meeting. Federally this usually is about a month after the new government is in place, or longer for out of season elections.


This, of course, is not the only way to do things.

In the Australia and New Zealand, the "caretaker" period of government is much more codified, and the UK concept of Purdah, also applies. Generally this encompasses the 6 weeks prior to an election, which is much much longer than in Canada.

The election period itself is typically a week or so shorter outside of Canada, but can be longer or shorter as well. The US in particular has no concept of a "writ period" and thus has no campaign length, with campaigning occurring nearly 24/7

Election day is similar in developed countries around the world, with polls being open for 12 hours, give or take a few hours, and closing at around 8pm, give or take a few hours. Results then generally come out quickly. The US, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan, for example, all count ballot booths individually, meaning results slowly roll in throughout the night, with the final result in each seat not being known for quite some time. The UK and Ireland however, use centralized counts. This means all ballot boxes are physically re-located to a central location within each seat, and counted as one. For this reason results in these countries only come out once per seat (compared to hundreds of times with more and more being known, in Canada etc) but are final once released. For this reason, elections in the UK are generally not "finished" counting until sunrise the next morning, whereas in the US/Australia/etc they are, as in Canada, generally "finished" by midnight local. Irish counts take a particularly long time, due to STV, with results of each round slowly rolling in over the following day or two, with no "election night results" in the same way as is done in the other countries named. 

Validation is wildly variant. In the UK and Ireland, validation takes place before results are announced, and any recounts happen on the night of the election. Announced results are final. In New Zealand, parties will wait sometimes for valid results before even beginning coalition negotiations, and this can take weeks. Additionally, unlike the UK, where postal ballots need to be received by election day to count, in NZ those sent by election day count, and thus more and more ballots can come in during the following weeks. In the US, for Presidential elections in particular, the schedule for validation of electoral votes is set in the constitution. 

In most countries, a transition period after the election but before the government is sworn in, is common. The United States has such a period written in to the constitution, and is roughly 10-11 weeks long, give or take a few days. The UK has no such period, and by sunrise the next morning, a new Prime Minister is generally expected to take office, with the 5 day coalition negotiation period after the 2010 election being seen as exceptionally long. Normally a UK PM is sworn in alone and appoints their cabinet in the following few days. This contrasts wildly with parts of Europe. Belgium has taken over 540 days to transition to a new government, though this was an unusually long period of time, in Germany this period can be a month or longer as a standard matter of course, whereas in the Netherlands, a transition period of 3-4 months is not unusual. 

Parliament then meets for the first time. In the UK this can happen as little as one week after the election, and while language barriers make this information difficult to find in some countries, it appears a 1-3 weeks after a new government being sworn in, is common, with Canada actually having one of the longer periods. 

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Australia votes for gay marriage

Australia held a non-binding referendum on same sex marriage and the results are in. 61.6% have voted in favour.

The result was overwhelming with only 17 divisions (ridings) voting a majority against. Of those 17, 3 were in Queensland, 2 in the Melbourne area of Victoria, and 12 in the Sydney area of New South Wales. The 14 outside Queensland are dominated by immigrant populations, while the 3 in Queensland are majority white australian.

More details can be found on the wikipedia page for the event.

The government is now expected to introduce legislation allowing for same sex marriage.

Wednesday, November 8, 2017

Winter Doldrums

We've entered what is effectively the winter break for politics. For the next few weeks I'll likely be gearing down, posting 2 entries per week, sometimes 1, but I plan to ramp that up in December to cover in detail all the various places holding elections in 2018.

I will however continue to update on various things.

Japan: The Democrats are still re-organizing. The CDP is officially down to 16 while the DP is officially up to 28. In the end the party should have a united 70 or so MPs.

Iceland: The Progressives and Centre Party have been in talks to mend their differences. This would enable both to sit in a government, important after the Progressives rejected the earlier proposed alliance for being too narrow a majority. It is thus now possible that the Centre Party and Progressives, which old a combined 15 seats, would be willing to sit in coalition together. This would enable a few new coalition options, including with the Left Greens and Social Democrats (33 seats) or with Independence and Reform (35 seats); Pending on how well the talks went, the two might try to form their own government, likely with the Progressive leader as PM

Upcoming: Queensland goes to the polls at the end of this month, and Catalonia votes on the 21st of December. I also may look in on the Nepalese elections occurring on the 26th of this month and 7th of next month.

In Queensland, Labor is expected to win again, but One Nation may act as a spoiler preventing a majority.

Saturday, November 4, 2017

Updates - Japan, Iceland, Germany

Apologies to those who saw the following post on Japan a few minutes ago; I decided it was better to group the updates rather than spread them out.


The parties are starting to form up more solidly, as the Democratic members are deciding what to do. CDP leader, Yukio Edano is now the opposition leader, and it is likely he will lead a re-unified Democratic party for the next term.

In the house of representatives:

LDP - 313*
DEM - 72**
KIB - 51
JCP - 12
ISH - 11
OTH - 2

* Combined LDP and Komeito

** 60 CDP supporters, 54 official CDP, plus 12 DP members. (many unofficial are, for example, SDP, or other small parties)

And in the house of councillors:

LDP - 151*
Dem - 57**
JCP - 14
ISH - 11
KIB - 3
OTH - 3

* Combined LDP and Komeito

** 9 CDP, 48 DP.


Negotiations continue between the conservative CDU, the liberal FDP, and the Greens. They are expected to successfully conclude in the next week or two.


Negotiations have begun on forming a left wing government lead by the Left-Greens, and joined by the Social Democrats, Pirates, and Progressives.