Tuesday, November 30, 2021

30NOV2021 updates

 We are into the winter doldrums for politics, but there are a few minor updates.

The czech and icelandic coalitions are now in place. 

I've also run some quick numbers for Italy, and the basic poll average (in terms of seats potentially won at the next election) is as follows:

85 PD (progressive) 
82 FdI (neo-nationalist) 
79 Lega (trump-like) 
64 M5S (left populist) 
32 FI (conservative) 
15 Az (left liberal) 
11 IV (liberal) 
8 EV (green) 
7 A1 (social democrat) 
7 SI (socialist) 
7 +Eu (euro liberal) 
3 CI (moderate)

Lastly, Japan's CDP has picked a new leader. 

Izumi Kenta has won. Mr. Izumi was the furthest 'right' of all the candidates, having stuck with Kibo and the DPP until the final merger. This may indicate a willingness to re-unite and heal the party. 

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

23NOV2021 updates

 Not much new to report. Germany's coalition is solidifying, The Czech coalition gets sworn in, in a few days. Iceland's coalition is finalizing the details. 

Perhaps the most report worthy thing is that Japan's CDP, its main opposition, is electing a new leader, and the 4 main candidates have emerged. The best way to classify them would be by how they reacted to the party split in the last election. Nishimura stayed with the party. Osaka became an independent. Ogawa became an joined Kibo. Izumi joined the DPP. No polls yet indicate how popular any of them are. 

Monday, November 15, 2021

15NOV2021 update

 The only major update today is the Bulgarian election. 

Results are not complete yet, but it appears that the results will be as follows:

66 - PP (anti-corruption)
59 - GERB (conservative)
33 - DPS (liberal, minority)
27 - BSP (social democratic)
25 - ITN (anti-corruption)
16 - DB (anti-corruption)
13 - Rev (nationalist)

This gives 108 seats for the anti-corruption parties, 92 for the two most traditional parties, 27 for the social democrats, and 13 for the nationalists. 

I want to contrast this with past election results:

I'll try to analyze this more in future posts; but for now, I will say that its quite possible we'll finally get a government this time. PP and DB want one. BSP is also seemingly willing to support them, and, PP and DB seem willing to allow that. This would be only a dozen or so seats short of a majority. It is quite possible that they could try to run this as a minority. However, ITN may support them. I will want to speak about ITN in my next post (when final results are out).

For now, this is all. 

Sunday, November 7, 2021

07NOV2021 updates

 The Czech situation has resolved, with the President able to speak from the hospital. He's confirmed he will appoint a SPOLU-PaS coalition, which, will confirm it's new government next week. As such, I've decided to stop following the government formation unless something changes. 

Bulgarian polls have settled down. Currently, polls suggest the following:

65 GERB (conservative)
45 BSP (socialist)
41 PP (anti-corruption)
36 ITN (anti-corruption)
27 DPS (liberal and minority)
25 DB (anti-corruption)

How that would turn into any potential government coalition remains to be seen. 

In South Africa, municipal elections give a hint at what the next election might look like. In particular, this is a rough estimate. Note, the number in brackets indicate the result in the last election.

201 ANC (230)
95 DA (84)
45 EFF (34)
25 IFP (14)
10 FFP (10)
10 ASA (0)
14 other (18)

If this plays out, the ANC will be sitting on a knife edge of a majority. 

Tuesday, November 2, 2021

02NOV2021 updates

 Not much to update. We did get one poll in Israel showing Yamina below the threshold, but that is an outlier. There is an election coming up on the 7th in Montreal, but I've not been following it very close. Otherwise, the only new updates are from Japan.

Japan has re-elected its current government. 

The LDP, under new leader, Kishida Fumio, took a left turn and ran as a far more moderate party than it had under Abe Shinzo. This is reflected in the poor results for the left-wing CDP and strong results for the right-wing Ishin party. 

Note that Japan has a parallel system. this means voters cast two ballots, one for their local candidate, and one for the party. As such, you'll see two popular vote figures below, one for the proportional seats, and one for the single-member seats.

The results were as follows:

261 - LDP - 72 PR 34.7% - 189 Dist 48.1% (moderate conservative)
32 - KMT - 23 PR 12.4% - 9 Dist 1.52% (conservative)
293 - Gov - 95 PR 47.1% - 198 Dist 49.6% (conservative)

96 - CDP - 39 PR 20.0% - 57 Dist 30.0% (liberal/progressive)
25 - Ish - 25 PR 14.0% - 16 Dist 8.4% (conservative)
11 - DPP - 5 PR 4.5% - 6 Dist 2.2% (liberal)
10 - JCP -  9 PR 7.3% - 1 Dist 4.6% (communist)
14 - Other - 3 PR 7.2% - 11 Dist 5.3% (see below)

Others, are 3 seats for Reiwa (progressive), 1 for the SDP (social democrat), and 10 Independents (various, mostly liberal/progerssive). 


293 Government 
131 Left Opposition
25 Right Opposition

The government, thus, lost 20 seats, but, kept the 'left opposition' roughly the same size, by losing seats to the right-wing opposition parties instead. 

Events can happen in the few days following an election in Japan, so, I will keep my eye on things and let you know what changes, if anything.