Wednesday, April 6, 2022

Israeli government may fall; and more on Serbia

 A member of Yamina, PM Bennet's own party, has quit the coalition government. Idit Silman, who was the chairwoman of the governing coalition, will now sit with the opposition. This will mean the government loses its majority, and as such, may well fall. 

Should the government collapse and the parliament be dissolved, Lapid will become Prime Minister. I still think Lapid will never see the PM's chair during this term of Parliament, so I do not see this as likely. 

Gantz may jump to Bibi and put him back in office, either with Gantz as PM, or with Netanyahu returning.

I really don't see any other options beyond simply delaying things. IE instead of collapsing today, the government may collapse in May, or December. 

The last 5 polls show Bibi's opposition coalition, which won 52 seats last election, would win 58, 59, 57, 60, or 58 seats in a new election. 61 being needed for a majority. Alongside them would be between 4 and 7 members of Yamina, some, or most of whom, may be convinced to sit with Bibi. 

In Serbia, the government has failed to win a majority in Parliament. They would have needed 126 seats, and ended up winning only 120. There are many potential coalition partners; but if an agreement can be hammered out is another question. There is only one truly pro-west possibility, the green party "We Must", but, they have previously labeled Vucic (President and leader of the governing party) an authoritarian, and may be unwilling to sit with him. The main opposition, united serbia, would similarly have difficulty making an about-face to sit with the government. 

SPS is a potential option. They are the successor to Tito ad Milosevic's communist parties. The party is currently pro-EU. They were already in the pre-election government coalition. The only other options are two monarchist parties, or the new Oathkeepers party, a far right party. 

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