Monday, October 31, 2022

Israeli elections tomorrow; one possible result

 Below, I've created a scenario that is possible. I will caution, the scenario is not likely. I don't possess all the information I'd need to make a likely scenario. Instead, I've put together some core assumptions, and, created the below:

28 Likud

16 Nationalists

16 Orthodox

30 Lapid

9 Gantz

5 Lieberman

4 Labor

4 Meretz

4 Hadash

4 Ra'am

Sorted by grouping, you can see that pro-Bibi parties would take exactly 16 seats. This is Likud, the Otzma-Zionist alliance (IE the Nationalists), and a combo of Shas and the UTJ (IE the 2 Orthodox parties)

Anti-Bibi has Lapid's Yesh Atid taking 30 seats, while the parties lead by Gantz (9) and Lieberman (5) do worse. Labor and Meretz take 4 each.

Lastly, both Hadash (technically, a Hadash-Tibi alliance, unlikely to back either side for government) take 4 seats, while Ra'am (who is keen on sitting in any government they can) also take 4.

The assumptions I've made are as follows:

Likud will continue it's late election trend of bleeding votes, losing them to it's ally parties. The Nationalists will thus take a whopping 16 seats, as will the two Orthodox parties when combined. This happens because of concerns Bibi will invite Gantz back into government.

Meanwhile on the progressive side of the ledger, the opposite happens. Voters worried that Gantz or even Labor could be co-opted to join a pro-Bibi coalition, switch to Yesh Atid and vote for Lapid instead, vaulting the party to 30 seats. 

Otherwise, parties generally take a number of seats that is indicated by their polling average. 

This means Lapid will have the first crack at forming a new government. 

This is where some key assumptions, perhaps absurd assumptions, occur.

Lapid wants to be PM. However, that is not his primary desire. His primary desire is that Bibi does not become PM. 

Bibi wants to become PM, but his party, by now, would just want to return to government. Bibi knows this. 

Gantz also yearns for the office of PM. 

As such. Absurdly. 

Gantz will become PM.

This would mean a Yesh Atid-Likud-Gantz coalition government. 

This is not likely to occur whatsoever. 

However. I've decided it's what I'm going to "predict". 

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