Sunday, October 31, 2021

Japan election, early results

 Counting continues, and things can shift by 5 or so seats (or more), but, results look potentially to be as follows:

265 - LDP
95 - CDP
35 - NKP
35 - ISH
35 - others

This would be a great result for the LDP, and a poor one for the CDP. 

Monday, October 25, 2021

25OCT2021 updates

 Things are on the move in Czechia. Babis, the Prime Minister, and the speaker of the house (a member of his party), are expected to activate the portion of the constitution that allows them to step in to replace an ailing president. Not to fraudulently give their party a victory, but to ask the opposition leader to form government. While things worked this time, it would only take 2 bad actors to cause this system to break down in entirety. As such, I suspect this will be changed in the future. 

In Iceland, negotiations between the 3 largest parties - who also makeup the current government - are expected to continue. It would retain the same Prime Minister, despite her party losing seats. 

Nunavut holds elections today. I will not be covering it the same way I do elections elsewhere, for the same reason I avoid covering elections in many presidential systems - my focus is on parties in the Westminster and Westminster-like systems. - Nunavut has no parties, and is this impossible to cover in this manner. I will, however, consider looking at the results after the election, to see if I can't lump the candidates into 'parties' (likely incumbent vs challenger) to see if I can't make sense of the results. 

On the 31st, elections occur in Japan. My current thoughts (which have changed since my post over the weekend) is as follows:

255 - LDP
120 - CDP
25 - NKP
25 - ISH
20 - JCP
20 - others

Polls in Japan are notoriously difficult to 'read'. They always include the undecided voters. (Thus, instead of putting a two-party poll at 50%-50% with 20% undecided, it would say 40% and 40%) While this might not seem like a major problem, it is, as, undecided voters in japan like to break for the main opposition party. Often you'll see polls saying the LDP will win 45% of the vote, the main opposition party will win 15%, all other parties will in 20%, with 20% undecided, but, on election day, the LDP wins 45%, the other parties 20%, and the main opposition takes 35%. 

As such it is very difficult to try to interpret polling results. The 2 most recent polls have the LDP at 30% and 38%. the two before that have them at 30% and 33%. The two before that both at 44% while the two before that at 36% and 39%. In nearly any other country, this would cause suspicion at how on earth a party could vary so widely, but in Japan, this is normal. The poll with the LDP at 33% shows the CDP at 21%. the very next poll has them at 10%. Turning this into potential results is thus as much a guessing game as it involves math. 

Worse, just when you think you understand it, all of those above polls are "party vote" polls. Normally polls show "party identification". Those polls, in October alone, show the CDP as low as 5% and as high as 14%, and the LDP as low as 32% and as high as 51%. 

So who knows. I expect the LDP to have a majority, perhaps only with their coalition partner, or, perhaps on their own. We shall find out next week. 

Saturday, October 23, 2021

Observations and update - 23OCT2021

I just got a new patron out of the blue, and I think it's a fan fo the blog! so, lets post everything I have sitting in the queue. 

 just for funsies I combined the last election in the various nordic countries, and put them in a 399 seat parliament.

100 - social democrats
66 - conservatives
65 - right populists
55 - nordic agriarians
38 - leftists
26 - liberals
20 - greens
19 - christian democrats
10 - others

In the IRL nordic council, the agriarians, liberals, greens, and christian democrats, sit as a single group:

101 - 'centrists'
100 - social democrats
66 - conservatives
65 - right populists
38 - leftists
10 - others

Given politics of the past 4 years in the nordic countries, this would lead to a centrist-social democrat coalition.

I've run a quick but simple prediction/projection of japan; but its not been very rigorous. Regardless, results were as follows:

270 - LDP
105 - CDP
25 - NKP
25 - ISH
20 - JCP
20 - others

Also, a quick run down of Iraq's election results, a summary:

75 - Pro Sadr
63 - Pro Kurd
51 - Pro Iran
38 - Centrists
33 - Others
38 - Unknown

It's likely that Sadr and Kurd forces will form the core of the new government, perhaps one which will include some centrists. 

Tuesday, October 19, 2021


 A day late on this one, apologies for that. 

The reality, is there's not much to update. However, we do have two somewhat significant updates.

First; I'm adding Hungary to the list of countries I'm keeping my eye on. The opposition parties have united into a single electoral coalition, and are polling neck and neck with the government. More on this later.

In Italy, we finally have a poll that I've seen coming for some time. It shows FdI, the far-right party, at 20.5%, and, in second place, PD, the Progressives, at 20.2%. Lega has fallen to 19.8%, they are Trump-like. The left-populist M5S is at 15.8%. 

Czechia is having some trouble, with the president's illness now leading to accusations of treason by his staff, who may have forged his signature. 

As always, I'll keep you updates as things develop. 

Monday, October 11, 2021

11OCT2021 updates

Coalition negotiations in Czechia have been complicated by an illness that has incapacitated the President. Unlike the US, there is no "Vice President" to simply step in. Additionally, some in the ANO party are trying to form a coalition with the right-wing opposition. This could fracture ANO, which would leave the rump of the party more to the left. 

In Norway, the Labour and Centre parties have agreed to form a government. They have a combined 76 seats, which is short of the 85 needed for a majority. There are 24 seats to the left of the coalition politically, and, 75 to its right. It is likely it will not have a difficult time finding other parties to help pass its agenda. 

No news from other nations on government formation, but it appears that in Iceland, talks between the two largest parties continue, while in Germany, a traffic light coalition continues to negotiate. 

In France, a candidate to the right of Le Pen has potentially been polling in 2nd place for the Presidency, while a moderate Conservative could also make the 2nd round, and if so, has a chance at defeating Macron. 

Sunday, October 10, 2021

Czech Election results

Results are all but final. I've broken out the alliances into parties here for ease of understanding:

Note that I've listed the alliance before the name of the party. 

72 - Govmnt - ANO (Liberal Populist)
33 - P-STAN - STAN (Moderate Right)
23 - SPOLU  - KDU (Christian Democrat)
20 - indpndt - SPD (Populist Neo Nationalist)
14 - SPOLU  - TOP (Conservative Liberal)
4 - P-STAN - Pirates (Pirate)
34 - SPOLU - ODS (Liberal Conservative)

ODS, STAN, KDU, and TOP, all which have similar enough base ideologies, would have a combined 104 seats. It is extremely likely they form government, perhaps including the Pirates, who were part of an electoral alliance with STAN. It should be noted that, technically, all the parties have already agreed to form a coalition, but, I suspect the pirates may end up left out in the end. 

Important to note is that the Social Democrats and Communists both failed to enter Parliament. This jives well, narratively, with Babis' loss, as, the main reason behind it, was his alleged former ties to the communist government, (some suspicion he worked with the secret police). As such, some are saying this election marks the end of the post-communist era for Czechia. 

Saturday, October 9, 2021

Czechia government defeated

 Counting continues, but the ruling ANO party appears to have taken only 72 seats. Only 4 parties/alliances have made it into Parliament this time, with the 4th being the anti-immigration SPD, at 20 seats.

SPOLU has taken 71, they are a right-wing alliance of parties, while the Pirates and "Mayors" alliance has taken 37. They are expected to form a coalition government. 

More as it develops. 

Monday, October 4, 2021

04OCT2021 updates

 Japan is entering its election phase. I will be updating with expected results, but, the LDP can be expected to gain seats, likely.

Beyond that, I've been working on some personal improvements, as such, today's post is extraordinarily short. apologies about that.