Wednesday, September 14, 2016

International and a unique project

Belarus is not a free democracy and all indications was the election would be identical to the last;
110 - Pro Government
0 - Opposition

Much to my surprise, I'm delighted to report that has not occurred. The results are as follows:
108 - Pro Government
2 - Opposition

This is unexpected. Belarus is also a very repressed country so I really have no other information. Regardless it's good news, and hopefully, these 2 members will be allowed to serve out their term alive and well.

Not much has changed in seat counts, which are as follows
61 HDZ (Conservative)
54 SDP (Social Democratic)
13 Most (Fiscal Libertarian)
13 Others

This is a gain of 2 seats for HDZ and a loss of 6 from Most (which means Bridge in Croatian) who had a 'coalition' of sorts in the last Parliament that barely lasted a year.

I think the 'message' here is that Most was too fussy in coalition, and HDZ members would agree. The Coalition was always a bit strained. Given the numbers, the most logical result is another coalition but with Most having it's wings clipped, they'll be far more willing to bend.

September 18th is election day. I did a preview of the election earlier, and wish to provide an updated prediction. Changes from last election indicated.

268 UR +30 (Regime, Conservative)
78 LDPR +22 (Nativist, Nationalist)
62 CPRF -20 (Communist, Dictatorial)
42 JR -32 (Social Democratic)

Based on polls, which may not exactly be accurate.

While you are reading this I will be watching the 2015 Canadian election over again, from the starting gun to the end of coverage. Why? Well I enjoy that sort of thing; it is always fun to rewatch coverage of an old election to see what people are saying. Contemporary thinking is always interesting in hindsight. While watching the election I will be doing something that, from what I know, has never been done before. I'll be keeping track of what the first poll to report from each riding has said. I'll be posting a map as well to show what those first polls indicated.

This is where I'll need to make another decision. I have access to some results programs of past elections through various (mostly american) online resources. If, and that's a big if, I do not find the work to do this too taxing, I will go back and do this for every election that I can. It may turn out that this work is too taxing; that I find it too hard to keep track of all these results while watching hours and hours of coverage for an event that I know the ending to. However, it is my hope that I will not find it that taxing, and, as a result, be able to produce such results for many elections.

If this all works, the end result will be a rock solid number that I can give you that will indicate, clearly, the chance that any single poll on election night, in fact, indicates the winner.

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