Germany: A very quick projection

Polls in Germany have been somewhat stable for a while, and as such, I thought I'd make a very quick projection.


161 - CDU (Conservative, only outside Bavaria)
133 - SPD (Social Democrat)
76 - AfD (Right-wing / Nationalist / Trumpist / Nativist)
76 - Linke (Left)
76 - Grn (Left / Environment)
38 - FPD (Liberal / Libertarian / Liberal-Conservative)
38 - CSU (Conservative, Bavaria only)


The CDU and CSU are in a permanent coalition, and the only option for the CDU/CSU to form a majority in this system is with the SPD, as they've previously said they are unwilling to work with AfD. As such, I expect the next parliament of Germany to look a bit like this:

332 - Government
76 - AfD
76 - Linke
76 - Grn
38 - FPD

It is, however, possible for FPD, a traditional coalition partner, to also be included. If so;

370 - Government
76 - AfD
76 - Linke
76 - Grn