What would a Harper win look like?

There is always a chance that I am wrong, and we are all wrong (we being election projectionists) If so, Harper may win a minority. If that happens, what would it look like? It could well look like this:

Signs this is happening?

Tory wins in the following ridings:

Egmont
Vaudreuil
Charlevoix
Eglinton-Lawrence
Charleswood
Regina Lewvan
Calgary Centre
North Island


The tipping point riding seems to be Charleswood in Winnipeg, whomever takes that riding (Liberal or Conservative) is most likely to win the election.