How I beat 308.com in 2011

I've re-coupled the projection to the polls.

You may wonder why, a week ago, I decided to de-couple the projection.
To replace real-hard-math with some "made up numbers" I pulled out of my "rear-end"

Here is why:

Where I thought the Tories would be, this week, in BC, is exactly where they are
Where I thought the NDP would be, this week, in BC, is exactly where they are
Where I thought the Liberals would be, this week, in BC, is exactly where they are
Where I thought the Greens would be, this week, in BC, is exactly where they are
Where I thought the Tories would be, this week, in Alberta, is exactly where they are
Where I thought the NDP would be, this week, in Alberta, is exactly where they are

In fact, I'll just focus on the few cases where I was wrong


The Tories are 2 points down in the Central Prairies, while the NDP is 2 points up.
This is now that I've taken real polls back into account. Hence I had over-estimated the Tories.

More importantly, I had the Tories at 36% in Ontario. At the time, the idea of having them "so low" in Ontario was crazy, yet, polls show them closer to 33%
Polls also show the Liberals at 38% in Ontario, when I had them at 37%. Lets remember people thought I was mad to put them "so high"

I also had the NDP too high in the Atlantic by a few points, which needed to go to the other 2 parties.

In Quebec, it was the Liberals I over-estimated, as the NDP has managed to stop the drop a point or two higher than I expected.


308 and 2C2C only use pure math. EPP and UBCEM only use "gut feelings".

I am the only one who combines both to create the best quality election projections available in the current Canadian election projection marketplace.

I will continue to do so as the election draws near. For now, be ready for another full projection based on the new polls in a day or so.