Monday, October 26, 2015

Vote Patterns, Alternate history, and the Canadian Alliance

Now that the election has passed, I can finally use some of my time to post about things beyond just current Canadian Federal politics.

One thing I've always been keen on is alternate history. What if this or that happened, or, did not happen. In this case, I'd like to look at what would have happened if, in the 2000 election, the Alliance was able to displace the PC Party.

The assumption is that sometime between 2000 and now, the federal PC Party has effectively ceased to exist.

What is most interesting is what happens when you examine the vote patterns of the Alliance. Here is Ontario, in the 2000 election, with a boosted Canadian Alliance vote total:

As you can see, while not perfect, the vote patterns are very close to what happened this election, and, that is my point.

The current Conservative Party has finally lost any element of the former vote pattern of the old PC Party. In fact, especially within Ontario (416 and 905 in particular) that entire vote pattern is now in the hands of the Liberals.

One of the only areas of the country the PC Party retained it's vote in, no matter how bad things got, was in the Atlantic. As such, I present the following alternate history. One which would see the Liberals still retain a majority, but, a very narrow one (172 seats) and has a PC Party with status (12 seats) all from the Atlantic, and, a Canadian Alliance with realistic and historical vote patterns, presented in 2015.

Not terribly exciting, perhaps, but something interesting to think about.

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