Monday, October 19, 2015

2015 election - Final Projection - Majority for Justin Trudeau's Liberals

Congratulations to Prime Minister soon-to-be-Elect, Justin Trudeau.

Words later, maps first:

There will be a number of headlines tomorrow morning, let's try to work through them.

"Liberal Majority"
This is true, or at least should be if the projections are correct, but then again, this is the case for all of them.

"Return of the Bloc"
Seems as though this is the case, to a point. If you add in the single FD seat, the Bloc, at 11, would then have enough to have official party status. Given that Fortin, the FD leader, is about the only person (who will have a seat) who could lead the party, it signals to me a possible merger. The Bloc might wish to go though a name change, and rebranding, and there is no better way to achieve that than through a merger with FD.

"NDP crushed"
This is not true. 53 seats would be their second best election ever. The idea that the party has been crushed is only because they managed the unfathomable result of 103 seats in 2011. It seems now clear that was not sustainable in the long run, but 53 seats is nothing to balk at. The party, which traditionally took 0, 0, and 0 seats in Quebec, looks set to take 23. In fact, if not for weakness in Ontario and the Atlantic (thanks to Liberal surges) the party might have been able to take 45 seats outside Quebec.

"Greens unable to grow"
Also untrue. While they might not win any additional seats, the number of "very close seconds" they take will count for something, and give the Greens a natural path to more seats. In addition, if, as suspected, the Kelowna decision (to not run a candidate) does elect a Liberal, it would indicate there is, potentially, enough Green strength in the area to elect a Green MP at some point in the future.

This is true. The core of 1968's Trudeaumania was Ontario, where the Liberals did far better than expected, and forced the Tories into a far worse position than they expected. This is exactly what is happening again, and for many of the same reasons, including Trudeau being "good looking". For those wondering what a modern "Trudeaumania" would look like, this is it.

"Alberta Goes Crazy"
Seems so, at least, if my numbers are on. As it stands, I have the Liberals taking the plurality of votes in Calgary. Again; the Liberals look set to "win" Calgary.

"Teddy nails projection, every riding correct"
While this would be nice, even I know that some of my calls will be wrong. Pure math simply can not make up for all the micro changes that occur between elections. It is my hope that among all those who did individual riding by riding projections that I will retain my championship belt that I obtained after hard work in 2011, but, anything can happen.


  1. 11 Bloc MPs go to about a Zombie caucus...that is to say, a group elected for a trivial reason with an underlying purpose that has run its course in 2011...a group of MPs that have little or no reason to exist...unless of course they rebrand along the lines that you suggest.

  2. Nick, congrat's on what appears to be the best projection site call on the 2015 election! This improvement to your 11th in 2008 & 4th in 2011 indeed bumps you to the elite practitioner category!

    Freddy Hutter, Trendlines Research

  3. This seat projection was very close.

    Just 4 low for the Cons, 7 low for the Libs and 9 high for the NDP. And almost bang on for the BQ.

    Pretty good work there. :)