Wednesday, January 22, 2020

updates (Canada, Ireland, Russia, Italy)

General updates; I wanted to note that the commenter on my Jan 4th post, who said Harper was likely the one pulling the strings within the CPC, was, in hindsight, almost certainly 100% correct. It may even be that Harper wanted to get MacKay in as leader, and that almost everything we've seen was to that end.

In Ireland, a new poll is out from Ipsos, which has FF at 25, compared to 23 for FG and 21 for SF. This is a far cry from the massive 12 point lead that B&A had for FF; and, puts doubt in the possibility that FF is running away with the election.

In Russia I'm keeping an eye on polls, but so far, nothing of note is out since the governmental changes. I for one want to see if these changes put Putin's party back where they once were, or, if they stay where they ended up after the pension reforms.

In Italy I've decided on a change on how I report onm polls. I will still mention how well M5S does, for example, but I will now mention natural allies; of which M5S has none. In the single most recent poll, M5S is at 16.1%. PD is at 19.9% but its natural allies are at a combined 7%. Lega meanwhile is at 28.7% but its natural allies are at a combined 18.6%. Reporting poll in this way will go far in simplifying the political system, and only in posts looking in more detail will I break out the individual parties for closer examination.

1 comment:

  1. In Italy, unfortunately I think Salvini will be next PM, just a question of when and how badly how will screw things up. Emilia-Romagna which has voted for left for 75 straight years votes this Sunday and polls neck and neck so much like many Red Wall seats in UK fell last December, this could be a falling of red wall in Italy. I've heard, left still strong in cities, but suburbs and rural areas swinging rightward whereas historically left dominated the entire province. If right wins there, Salvini will be emboldened to go, but perhaps fear of wipeout might force parties to make some difficult compromises.

    Ireland I think may result in another supply and confidence as unlikely either FF or FG gets enough support to rely on smaller parties excluding SF which both have ruled out. Also asides from Labour, Greens, and Independents, most on smaller parties are even further left, sort of Corbynista types who I doubt either party wants to work with. Real question is who comes in first as that party will likely get to supply the Taoseiach. Also I could see polls changing as Brexit happens before the election so any major issues with the Northern Ireland border could throw that issue into the campaign.