Thursday, January 9, 2020

Did Iran intentionally shoot down flight PS752?

Short answer: No.

Long answer: If you read my post from yesterday, you'll notice that having planes crash is a possible part of cyber warfare. So I want to look at if Iran downed this jet.

First; what does this gain them? Crashing a US owned plane over US territory carrying US citizens using cyber warfare is far different from crashing a Ukrainian owned plane over Iranian territory carrying Canadian citizens. Doing this to cause a distraction is a terribly wasteful way to cause a distraction, it is not only in efficient, but, if you check news websites, you'll notice that the attacks are still in the news, and so, if it is a distraction, it's not worked. It is illogical to thus assume that this was intentionally in this way.

So; what if instead it was a missile? Well that is a bit more interesting, but being intentional leads to the same problem as above. What if, however, it was an accident? If you go to this link in google maps you can see the power plant in Parand. You'll notice you can see the shadow of an aircraft. This both provides a pro and a con for the argument that it was an accident. The pro, is that at a time of tension, an aircraft flying over a sensitive site could be mistaken for a threat. The con is that the power plant lines up with the nearby runway, and dozens if not hundreds of flights thus overfly the plant every day; why would this one thus be shot down?

So while I'm not ready to declare it impossible that it wasn't an accident, I'm still thiking its far more likely to have been some kind of mechanical incident.

Here is a list from wikipedia of such incidents. This incident in particular comes to mind. When the engine exploded, the blades of the engine flew off and riddled parts of the plane with what looked like bullet holes. Additionally the explosion of an engine can look a lot like a bomb going off.

My conclusion is that this was most likely an engine failure; followed by a unlikely but possible accidental shoot down.

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