Saturday, January 4, 2020

Theory: Tory race may already be wrapped up.

I want to present a theory. The race for the next leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, is already wrapped up.

This idea hit me when Peter MacKay announced he was backing Scheer back in November. It seemed odd to me that MacKay would make such a forceful statement, supposedly in response to his previous naysaying about the 2019 campaign's quality. It was this that made me think somebody had contacted MacKay. This person said to him "I have dirt on Andrew, I want to run for leader, I think I have it locked up, and I want your support." MacKay, it seems, was not keen on this; at least, according to my theory.

Next is the fact that just after Scheer said he was staying around, a scandal broke, and he decided to step down. Again, it really seemed, to me, like someone had dirt on Scheer and said "Step down, or I'm going to release a scandal I have on you." and Scheer decided to stand up to them.

Now, that the leadership race is announced, we find out that, the candidate registration deadline is 2 weeks away. The question is, why so close? If we go with the theory; it is because somebody already has the race wrapped up.

The question is, who?

It would have to be somebody who is seen as someone who could win. Lets take a look at the possibilities.

Peter MacKay - This would mean his earlier statement was a misdirection. While I don't put it past him, I don't get the idea he wants the job that bad, and I have doubts.

Rona Ambrose - Possible, but it does not fit what I know of her personality, and I also get the impression for some reason that she people floating her are doing so because they oppose who ever this mystery person is.

Michael Chong - Playing dirty is fundamentally opposed to his core ethos, so I have strong doubts; but it is always possible our mystery man is simply working for someone rather than is that person themselves.

Michelle Rempel Garner - This is, also, not her style, and, her power base has never been within the shady sorts that could pull this off.

So, all of those candidates are unlikely. Who is more likely?

Folks like James Moore, Lawrence Cannon, or John Baird certainly could pull this off in terms of having the skills to do so, but none of them are really in a strong position to push for leader.

More likely is Pierre Poilievre, whose skill set matches this very well; but he is too unpopular with some in the party.

Erin O'Toole also clearly has a lot of internal support, as you don't place as well as he did in a leadership race when you are a relative unknown (compared to the others) unless you have a lot of support within the party structure itself.

None of them, however, are my top candidates. Those are:

Jean Charest - There's a reason he's suddenly popped up in the media as a possible contender. If he's working behind the scenes we could see things playing out the way we have. The problem, and why I have difficulty thinking it is him, is that his connections to the modern CPC, especially the 'back room shadowy types' that would be needed to mastermind this, are iffy. Still, there's a chance he is our mystery man.

Candice Bergen - Our mystery man could be a woman. Bergen is very popular within the inner machinery of the party, and, very powerful within that machine. Additionally, much more than Scheer, she strikes me as the sort of person who could play political hardball as well as Harper did. There is a good chance she is the one; the problem is that she seems to be somewhat pro-Scheer, and thus, why would she do this to him?

Gerard Deltell - Our darkhorse entry is my bet for who we are looking for. He is the former ADQ leader prior to its merger with the CAQ. He got there by building up exactly the kind of support network you'd need to pull this off. Additionally, there seems to be a lot of thought within the Conservatives that they need a Quebec leader, as, they have the West locked down. It is exactly this sort of thinking that could lead those not 'in' on the plot to suspect another candidate - like Charest - is the one that people have in mind. Beyond that, if Ambrose is, as I suspect, the person that those opposed to this idea are rallying around, than Deltell, as the person she is running against (vs Bergen) makes a lot more sense. Ambrose vs Deltell is a far more well contrasted battle than Ambrose vs Bergen.

There is, however, a final option.

My theory could simply be wrong. I've been in politics long enough to know that the organized cabal is almost never the actual answer to why things happen, and that most of the time, most politicians run around like headless chickens and have gotten to where they are simply by being the best at dealing with what seems like chaos. As such, the actual answer could be no one person is behind it, and I'm simply looking for things that are not there.

1 comment:

  1. If there was someone who could be pulling the strings from behind the scenes, it would be Stephen Harper.
    He is still the most popular within the CPC and would probably want an re-match against Trudeau.