Sunday, May 7, 2017

The "Surprise Me" factor.

If I've calculate my timezones correctly, this post will publish 5 minutes before the polls close in France.

This is a simple and short post, and should nothing unusual happen in France, I will re-schedule this post for this evening, and, it will become hidden again, as to emphasize the QC125 post.

In short: I judge what will not happen by what would surprise me.

Would it surprise me for Le Pen to win? No. In fact it would not surprise me for her to take as much as 55% of the vote.

Nor would it surprise be for Macron to win by as much as 72%

These are, clearly, extreme ranges, but this is what I'm expecting.

In BC it would not surprise me for the NDP to win as few as 12 seats, nor would it surprise me if the NDP won a majority and the Liberals won as few as 20; nor would it surprise me if the Greens won as many as 15, or as few as 0 for that matter.

I will try to remember to include the surprise me factor in all future posts.

1 comment:

  1. You don't surprise easily. A number of those outcomes would surprise me!