Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Advance Vote and BC

There has been a lot of talk about the 175K advance votes that have yet been counted. Let me address some math.

There are about 2,000 votes in each riding that have yet to be counted. The question is, can they tip the results of the election?

Included below is the full list of ridings, with the NDP vote subtracted from the Liberal vote. There are only three ridings within the range mentioned.

-170 Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
9 Courtenay-Comox
120 Maple Ridge-Mission

The first was a Liberal win by 170 votes.
The Liberals took 44.4% of the vote in this riding, compared to 43.6% for the NDP. In order to flip the riding, there needs to be 171 more NDP votes than Liberal votes. Assuming the Green vote (11.9%) stays the same, we get the following.

805 Liberal votes, based on the current trend within the riding
791 NDP votes, based on the trend
218 Green votes, and
186 NDP votes that go against the trend

This would mean, of these ballots, only 40.2% are Liberal, 10.9% Green, and 48.9% are NDP. This is a large swing. First, of 4.2% because that is the reduction in the Liberal vote, then, 5.3%, because that's the increase in the NDP vote. That's a 9.5% swing. Not impossible, but a very large swing

This, while possible, is unlikely.

Maple Ridge-Mission would need a swing to the Liberals of 121 votes, which, again, is a lot of ground to make up from only 2000 ballots when, in general, the voters will break similar to how non-absentee voters did.

It's certainly possible for either of these two to flip, but not very likely.

Courtenay-Comox is where the largest chance of a flip is to occur.

-9081 Kelowna-Lake Country
-8930 Kamloops-South Thompson
-8883 Kelowna-Mission
-8504 Kelowna West
-7706 Peace River North
-7420 Shuswap
-7341 West Vancouver-Capilano
-7190 Langley East
-6521 Penticton
-5949 Vancouver-Quilchena
-5673 Delta South
-5326 Abbotsford-Mission
-5307 Surrey-White Rock
-5129 Parksville-Qualicum
-5069 Prince George-Valemount
-5035 Abbotsford South
-5020 Abbotsford West
-4885 Vernon-Monashee
-4600 Surrey South
-4579 Chilliwack-Kent
-4481 Cariboo-Chilcotin
-4355 Prince George-Mackenzie
-4335 Kootenay East
-4255 Kamloops-North Thompson
-4189 Peace River South
-3581 West Vancouver-Sea to Sky
-3253 North Vancouver-Seymour
-2968 Chilliwack
-2705 Richmond North Centre
-2324 Nechako Lakes
-2298 Langley
-2233 Boundary-Similkameen
-2195 Surrey-Cloverdale
-2020 Vancouver-Langara
-1852 Cariboo North
-1836 Richmond-Steveston
-1359 Columbia River-Revelstoke
-1281 Skeena
-1266 Richmond South Centre
-706 Fraser-Nicola
-560 Vancouver-False Creek
-263 Richmond-Queensborough
-253 Oak Bay-Gordon Head (won by Greens, does not count)
-170 Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
9 Courtenay-Comox
120 Maple Ridge-Mission
989 Vancouver-Fraserview
1022 Cowichan Valley (won by Greens, does not count)
1040 Stikine
1107 Saanich North and the Islands (won by Greens, does not count)
1340 Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
1420 Port Moody-Coquitlam
1445 Burnaby North
1450 North Vancouver-Lonsdale
1784 Surrey-Panorama
1805 Burnaby-Deer Lake
1841 Delta North
1957 Surrey-Guildford
2119 North Coast
2147 Burnaby-Lougheed
2268 Nelson-Creston
2446 Coquitlam-Maillardville
2791 Saanich South
2838 North Island
3292 Surrey-Fleetwood
3309 Nanaimo
3569 Surrey-Green Timbers
3761 Burnaby-Edmonds
4220 Surrey-Newton
4239 Esquimalt-Metchosin
4290 Nanaimo-North Cowichan
4318 Vancouver-Kensington
4348 Surrey-Whalley
4765 Vancouver-Point Grey
5466 Mid Island-Pacific Rim
5476 Vancouver-Fairview
5729 Vancouver-Kingsway
5836 Port Coquitlam
6082 Langford-Juan de Fuca
6129 Powell River-Sunshine Coast
6178 Kootenay West
7590 New Westminster
7612 Vancouver-West End
7776 Vancouver-Hastings
8539 Victoria-Swan Lake
10180 Victoria-Beacon Hill
10213 Vancouver-Mount Pleasant

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