Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Liberal Majority in Nova Scotia

The Liberals have won another majority in Nova Scotia.

The Liberals took 27 seats and 39.51% of the vote, compared to 33 seats and 45.71% last time.
With 51 seats in the legislature, 27 means room for a speaker, and to still have a 26-24 balance in voting members. The Liberals needed another majority and they got one. This means another 3 years in power, if not a full 4.

The PC Party took 17 seats and 35.78% of the vote, compared to 11 seats and 26.31% last time.
The Tories ran on one of the most right-wing platforms any maritime PC Party has ever run on, and managed to increase their seat count and were competitive in the vote count with the Liberals. Jamie Baillie, the leader, can honestly call this a success.

The NDP took 7 seats and 21.41% of the vote, compared to 7 seats and 26.84% last time
The NDP achieved what it needed to. While it lost votes, it retained 7 seats. Beyond that it ran on a left platform, something that had never been endorsed to such a degree in Nova Scotia. The NDP stemmed off a collapse, and as such, were successful.

The Greens took 2.78% of the vote, with 32 candidates, compared to 0.85% last time, with 16 candidates
The Greens did well. Doubling their candidate count would normally come with a doubling of their vote, but the vote more than tripled.

The Atlantica Party took 0.41% of the vote, with 15 candidates, compared to 0.06% last time, counting the 2 candidates who ran for the party.
The Party is Libertarian in nature, and supports Maritime Union. Prior to the last election the party was deregistered due to financial reporting issues.

3 Independents took 0.11% of the vote, compared to 5 who took 0.26% of the vote last time.

So what is next?

Due to the size of the majority, there is a chance the Liberals won't last the term. Parties on the way out are obvious, and members don't like going down with the ship. MLAs would want to line up private sector jobs, and this likely means some resignations in the final year of government, leaving vacancies that could be won by the opposition.

NS is the only province without fixed election date legislation, but the next election can be expected between May of 2020 and May of 2022.

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