Monday, May 8, 2017

Macron wins French elections

As noted earlier, Macron has won.

66% - Emmanuel Macron - 20,703,694
34% - Marine Le Pen - 10,637,120

Blank votes - 4,066,801

Non-voters - 12,041,278

Looking at the vote patterns and listening to the analysts, its clear that a lot of the 4 million blank voters (roughly 3 million) were Le Pen voters who decided their candidate is too nutty to actually back.

It's likely nearly all of the 7.7M Le Pen voters from the first round, and the 1.7M Dupont-Aignan voters, voted for Le Pen in the second round. The additional 1.2M voters likely came from Fillon, while 5M of his voters went to Macron, and 1M cast blank ballots. It is my guess that 2M Melenchon voters stayed home, 2M cast blank ballots, and 3M voted for Macron. Roughly, of course.

Interestingly, had the number of blank ballots remained at 1M, and not increased to 4M (and had the 3M cast their ballots for Le Pen) the results would have been 61%-39%, which was widely expected.

For Comparison:

(votes in millions)
18.0 Hollande
16.8 Sarkozy
2.1 Blank
9.0 Abstain (stayed home)

18.9 Sarkozy
16.8 Royal
1.6 Blank
7.1 Abstain

25.5 Chirac
5.5 Le Pen (sr)
1.8 Blank
8.4 Abstain

15.8 Chirac
14.2 Jospin
1.9 Blank
8.1 Abstain

16.7 Mitterrand
14.2 Chirac
1.2 Blank
6.1 Abstain

15.7 Mitterrand
14.6 Giscard d'Estaing
0.9 Blank
5.1 Abstain

13.4 Giscard d'Estaing
13.0 Mitterrand
0.4 Blank
3.9 Abstain

11.1 Pompidou
7.9 Poher
1.3 Blank
9.2 Abstain

13.1 de Gaulle
10.6 Mitterrand
0.7 Blank
4.5 Abstain

1 comment:

  1. Exit polls showed D-A's vote roughly split between Macron, La Pin and blank/abstain, with only a slight plurality to La Pen.