Thursday, May 18, 2017

Alberta merger and BC Map

I've created a new map for BC elections

Currently it shows the election night results, but this map will be used in future BC elections for making predictions and projections.



Also big news out of Alberta.


The PC Party and Wildrose are merging. This has been in the works for quite some time and we do have a mathematical model of the merged parties ready to go and to make projections with.

Here is the current prediction


As you can see, there are a large number of ridings that are "battleground" ridings between the two parties. As we near the election, I will refine the map and the numbers.

4 comments:

  1. I feel the merger will help the Alberta Liberal Party to eventually rebuild (or the Alberta Party if it can pass the Liberals or hopefully the two will merge). I think there is a market for a non-right-wing, non-Socialist party in Edmonton and Calgary (and a few other isolated spots like Lethbridge and Fort McHenry). Maybe not the next election (which will likely be polarized), but eventually.

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    1. There is a non-right wing and non-socialist party - it currently governs the province. If you think the Notley NDP are anything but orange Liberals then you're drinking too deep of the partisan kool-aid.

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  2. But perception is more important than reality in politics. And the NDP are precievedoing to be socialist in the minds of many voters. Last time it was more of a protest vote combined with the personal appeal of its leader. They won't always have that.

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    1. Disagree. If they were truly the socialist boogeyman you claim, they wouldn't have the support they do - many Albertans realize that the NDP are more or less centrists with a bit of a left tilt, unless they're born several generations ago.

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