Monday, May 15, 2017

BC Electoral Reform

I wanted to look at some of the different options for BC should it decide to try to implement electoral reform.

First I want to look at MMP PR using a standard or "normal" fill-up system.

BC has 42 federal ridings, balanced to be roughly equal, ready to go. I've mapped my estimation of the transposition of votes from Provincial results to Federal ridings. It is not a perfect mathematical transposition, and some estimations were made (like, that Weaver could take the few extra votes he needs to beat Carole James to represent Victoria)

This would give the NDP 20 seats, the Liberals 20 seats, and the Greens 2

To this we would add 45 seats from the proportional list, to bring us up to 87, the number of seats currently in the BC Legislature.

No matter which of the three counting methods you use (D'Hondt, St.Laguem or Hare-Niemeyer) you end up with a grand total of 36 Liberals, 36 New Democrats, and 15 Greens.

A parallel system would have differing numbers.

Using D'Hondt, we get 19 additional seats for the Liberals, 19 for the NDP, and 7 for the Greens.

I've also calculated the results using STV. First multi-member:

(Note some transfer assumptions had to be made)

And lastly, single member riding STV (also known as AV) was also estimated using transfer assumptions.

The results are below for comparison purposes:

36 - Liberal
36 - NDP
15 - Green

39 - Liberal
39 - NDP
9 - Green

36 - Liberal
37 - NDP
13 - Green

41 - Liberal
43 - NDP
3 - Green

43 - Liberal
41 - NDP
3 - Green


  1. Is there an error with your STV calculation? It only adds up to 86 seats, not 87.

    1. Possibly I added one riding with too many or few members