None of the tiny candidates really can overtake the larger ones at any point.
The smaller candidates are also too diverse to make overtake any of the medium sized candidates
Given that they share some ideological points, the medium sized candidates might be able to support one another; but, in reality, neither of them can overtake the next largest candidate.
Finally this brings us to
Who is an ideological candidate, someone with "ideas" and will thus be not as transfer friendly as otherwise might be the case. As such, she will be 4th from last.
This brings us to the 3 largest candidates
O'Toole might be able to hoover up moderate votes and pass Scheer, but I doubt it.
Scheer has positioned himself as the "Harper" of the race, and would basically continue Harper's policies. The problem is this still leaves him behind, the eventual winner.
With strong support from Quebec, and the riding-based system used in the party, Bernier, an "ideas" candidate (Libertarian in nature) will likely win the leadership, and, as a result, move the Conservative Party to a more Libertarian viewpoint.
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