Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Yukon Election, possible prediction

I'm loathe to even bother to try to predict elections this far north. I always say that about 1,000 voters in any given riding; be it Vuntut Gwitchin, or all of Italy, will vote based on local concerns and will therefore not be able to easily predict using the math I normally use to forecast elections. The problem is that in the Yukon, no riding cast more than 1,000 ballots in the last election. As such, these elections are very "local" in nature, especially in rural areas.

Despite that, I have had a number of people ask me what I think will happen. As such I present my Prediction:

Remember, this is a "Prediction" and not a "Projection". In short, it's educated guesswork, and is far less based on math, and thus, far more likely to be "very wrong"

Regardless, this is where things seem to be headed at this time.

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