USA: Election Day - Projection

This is the most likely outcome. Why? Well that's actually a bit more difficult to explain, but in short, because I really hope it is.

For Trump to win we would need to make a few core assumptions about America, and the average voter. Assumptions that go beyond the borders of the US, and impact voters in most developed democracies around the world. Many of these assumptions are very discomforting.

1 - That voters don't really care about how good or bad of a job that a particular candidate can do, they simply want someone who will "stand up" for them, even if that person destroys the country in the process.

2 - That voters are far, far more racist than we think. It goes beyond race even to culture. It implies that people feel that the culture of others is something to be "defeated" rather than empathized with.

3 - That voters are just plain stupid idiots who can be easily fooled by flash and panache, and that they care more that a policy 'feels' like it 'should' work, and less if the evidence says it does.

4 - That voters are willing to let people get away with disgusting behavior so long as the person in question is someone with whom they agree.

5 - And that voters are simply unwilling to listen to evidence, no matter how strong that evidence is.

Lets tackle some of these.

#5 alone can outright kill people. Crime policy, level of social funding, and health administration.

#2 and #4 in conjunction can explain why real dictators can and do manage levels of popular support.

#1, #3, and #5 together imply Democracy does not work, at all.

#3, and #4 imply that people can easily be fooled by those with the know-how and resources

#1 and #5 show that voters can willingly and purposefully harm another group in society, on purpose, because of refusal to accept facts (this partly explains the holocaust) 

#2, #3, and #5 are how the various "reign of terror" periods in world history begin

#1 and #4 explain corruption

And #1, #2, #3, #4, and #5 in combination, say one simple thing:

Your fellow human being is a disgusting dangerous idiot who could easily and purposefully hurt you if you upset them, and there's not a damned thing you can do to stop it.

This is a very, very horrible world to live in, and it's certainly not one I want to live in. I also don't believe it is the world we live in.

For that reason, I an projecting a Clinton victory.


PS - If any Trump state is wrong on this map, it's Ohio, and if any Clinton state is wrong, it's Florida.