Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Prediction: Michelle Rempel will be next Tory PM

A bold prediction;
Michelle Rempel will be the next Conservative to become Prime Minister.

It might happen because of a shift in seat balance between elections, or maybe even as part of some coalition deal we currently can not fathom, but likely, it will be because she's lead her party to victory in an election.

Whomever wins the current leadership race will find themselves leading a party unable to form a government. They will lose elections, but may well force the Liberals into minority territory. Regardless, whomever wins the leadership will not win the election.

Rather it is the person who wins the next leadership, or perhaps even the one after that, Michelle Rempel, who will be the next Conservative to be Prime Minister.

Again, I'm not putting dates on any of this. I'm not saying that there will be another leadership election in the Conservative party before the 2019 election, nor am I saying that Rempel will defeat Trudeau. We could see a decade of Liberal rule, or even two decades, and there could be two, three, four, or more Liberal Prime Ministers in that period of time.

But the next time someone with a Conservative party membership walks into 24 Sussex as it's new resident, her name will be Michelle Rempel.

Edited to add:

This is going to be one of my "Pumpernickel Predictions" so called because that's a fairly rare word, and so, will make this prediction easy to find in the future.

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