Friday, November 11, 2016

Trump and the Working Class

In 1976, voters under $30K income ($8K income after inflation)
split 63-38 for the Democrat.

In 1980, 10,000 becomes the inflation adjusted mark.
The split was 52% for the democrat, 42% for the Republican, and 6% for Anderson. This race saw Reagan win by a 10 point margin nationwide.

1984 has our mark move to 12,500
Regan, who won a 60-40 popular vote split nationwide, took 46% among this group, to Mondale's 54%. Remember, this is with a 20 point victory nationwide.

In 1988, $12,500 = $25,000 after inflation, so, that's not exact, but it's as close as we can get with the poll
With a 7 point margin nationwide, the split in our test case group is 63-37 for the Democrat

In 1992, $15K is $25K, and as close as we are going to get.
The split was 58% for Clinton, 23% for Bush, and 19% for Perot.

1996 is really bad for inflation adjustments.
$15K = $23K, while $30K = $46K.
The margin in the first group was 60% for the Democrat, 29% for the Republican, and 9% for Perot, while the second group breaks 49%, 41%, and 10%, in the same order.

The infamous 2000 election
still has our inflation problem. $15K=$21K and $30K=$41K
(feel free to check for yourself )
The splits are 58% for Gore and 38% for bush for the first group, and $49%-48% for the second.
Bush actually did somewhat well among the working class. I remember detailed polls from the era showing W. Bush won socially conservative and economically liberal voters, as well as economically conservative and socially liberal voters. This is one reason W. Bush won elections.

In his re-election in 2004
Inflation says $15K=19K, and $30K=38K
The splits are 57-42 and 50-49, both won by the Democrats.
Notice that in both W. Bush elections, while he did well among the "upper" working class, he heavily lost the poorer sectors.

Entering the Obama era in 2008
We see a massive win for Obama among the poorest, 73-25, and a win among the next group, at 60-37. By this point, inflation becomes less of a concern. $30K then  = $34K now.

In 2012, Obama also won these groups.
The problem is it all gets lumped in with "under $50K". Despite that, we see a 60-38 victory.

Now we are in 2016.
While this:
is currently a dead link, I'm sure in a few months it won't be.
What we can see is this:
and this:
The under $30K vote split as follows:
for Clinton.
Trump's strong showing among this group is less important than Clinton's weakness. There is no exact math, due to inflation, national vote margins, and differing groups being polled, but in short, this is the worst the Democrats have done in this group. This is a huge region the Democrats failed to take the Presidency.

If we had seen a more traditional vote split in this group, Clinton would have won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and the Election.

Trump didn't "Win" this group, but the Democrats certainly "Lost" it. While fighting for reproductive rights, gender equality, transgender rights, gay marriage, racial equity, and undocumented immigrants, the Democrats forgot to fight for the working class. Don't get me wrong, these are all laudable goals, and all things I support. My Twitter avatar - an avatar I use everywhere - currently is from the old "it gets better" campaign, combating suicides by gay teens. This has been my avatar, everywhere, for about 6 years now. I fully support helping all these disadvantaged groups. That does not mean we should stop helping "poor white people", and it is these people who switched from Democrat to Republican and gave Trump that final margin of victory.

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