Monday, September 28, 2015

Theory, Errors, and Changes

A few quick notes.

1 - I've made some changes to how Ontario is presented. As such, I have new maps!

.None of the ridings have changed party, but there is a important change. First, the riding of York Simcoe has been moved from the "rural" map to the "toronto" map.

Secondly, I've outlined Toronto. I will be presenting Toronto separately from the rest of the GTAGGH in the tables when presented. This will allow all the tables to better fit into the space available.

2 - The ElectoMatic had an error.
For some reason it thought that there was an additional, invisible, riding in Montreal. At the time this error was caught, it was assigning that magic seat to the Liberals. As such, the Liberals have dropped by 1 seat in the projection.

3 - I have a theory.
We know from various polls that around 10% of supporters of any party will say they have no "second choice" if their party were not on the ballot, and turnout figures seem to reflect this, in that, if a party is missing, there is no huge stay-home vote.

This has, however, not held true for the Tories, where that number is closer to 50%.

The theory is that this is because people are simply unaware of parties like the Libertarians and the Christian Heritage Party.

One problem is that a huge issue for the Tories, terrorism, is not supported by either of these parties. I don't mean that the Tories "support terrorism" I mean that the specific viewpoints the Conservative Party of Canada has on terrorism is not something that is found in either the CHP or Libertarians. As such, there could be a higher than expected "stay at home" vote.

This, however, would indicate that ~35% of Tory supporters could fit into either the CHP or Libertarians. Given the party is around ~35% in the polls, this means that if the Conservative Party of Canada were to not exist, that the Libertarians and CHP would be polling around ~5% nationwide, and be battling with the Greens, and Bloc, for 3rd place. Given the CHP has a capitalist economic outlook, it is possible that it would even bring on board supporters from other parties, and if not for the Tories, could be at 10% in the polls, and could be leading in ridings like Abbotsford, Crowfoot, and Middlesex-Lambton.

No comments:

Post a Comment