Sunday, September 27, 2015

Analysis: NDP in trouble & Announcement: Projection update this evening

A short post.

The NDP is in trouble. The previous post will explain part of the reason why. I will also go into greater detail as I do my projection this evening.

I will be adding the first "Momentum Adjustment" of this race. It is, in short, the opposite of poll averaging, where I amplify the changes to the poll average to try and project future polls. This will apply to the NDP and will be universally in the "down" direction. 

This does not mean you'll see the NDP taking "only" 50 seats, but it does mean you may see a projection of mine where I have the NDP polling a point or two beyond their lowest low in the past week of polls. 

As for the projection, expect regions (starting with the small 63) to come out starting this evening, and late this evening (perhaps into the early morning hours, depending on your time zone) I will wrap up the projection and provide the full combined results; as I've concluded the "front" should be the last, not first post in the series. 

I would remind people that despite this adjustment that we are not at the point, last time, where the NDP started it's rise in the polls, in 2011. As such, the NDP could still manage a majority if the momentum changes direction. It did in 2011. In 2011 we saw a good 5 to 10% drop off the Bloc in Quebec early in the election and go to the Liberals, That "blob" of voters then switched to the Tories, before switching to - and staying with - the NDP. It's quite possible that those currently leaving the NDP will change their minds.

1 comment:

  1. I think you are right...The French debate may be a game-changer...and nationally, once the NDP drops out of contention of being THE party to defeat Harper, the Liberals may have their chance. hey are also beset by poor ratings in Ontario and Manitoba (the latter due to the provincial government)