Tuesday, September 29, 2015

29SEP2015 Projection - text version

I've decided to make the best out of a bad situation.
My time is very limited today, so rather than release a "normal" projection, I will do one without any maps or images, and use only text. When my projection does come out, it will likely be identical to this, but, will include maps and riding results.


Having been decoupled from the polls, we find the Liberals are ahead based on an expected shift to the party from NDP voters to stop the Tories.

124 - LIB
110 - CPC
100 - NDP
2 - GRN
1 - BQ
1 - FD

The Atlantic has been re-adjusted with care given to re-balance the provinces. This means the NDP no longer does as well within NB. This better matches it with riding polls. This is also good news for the party as those voters have to go somewhere (if they are at 26% in the atlantic, and were at 26% in NB, but are now at 22% in NB, that means they [because they are still at 26% in the atlantic] are doing better in the other atlantic provinces)

As a result, the Tories are now well ahead of the NDP in Saint John.

There were also more in-depth riding adjustments. At current, the NDP is sitting at 28.5% in both Charlottetown and Egmont. The NDP also has seen a boost in rural Newfoundland.

Quebec has more of the "attention grabbing" changes.
Plamondon is now ahead in his seat comfortably. Fortin is also ahead, leading by 3 points over the Liberals. While the NDP continues to dominate in the corona, they are losing seat after seat in the regions.

Ontario is where my adjustments are most significant. Previously, the Liberals had been ahead in Toronto (the 416) by a huge margin and behind in the 905. There are polls showing the opposite is true, and, riding polls match that trend. As a result, things have been re-balanced. Peggy Nash is now leading in her seat by near 15 points, and the NDP is set to win 9 Toronto seats, despite their presumed drop in Ontario that I've already taken into account.

Manitoba also needed some significant adjustments, and I'm still not fully satisfied. I currently have them at 36% in the province, and as a result, at 43% in Winnipeg. This matches polls taken of Winnipeg. Despiste that, the riding results I get are nowhere near the riding polls, even after I've adjusted the ridings individually. It's just impossible for the Liberals, at 43% in Winnipeg, to only be at 38% in South Centre, which is perhaps their strongest riding there (outside of those held by star candidates) Saskatchewan has nothing of note.

Alberta is where some major changes are taking place, as I have the Liberals outpolling the NDP. I'd like to make a point of one thing:

The Liberals continue to hold, in the projections, Calgary Skyview. And they have held, in the projection, Calgary Skyview since 2013.

While it is possible for them to lose Skyview, and even Centre, it is impossible - with the Liberals taking about 2 votes for every 5 the Tories take in the province - to not walk away with a Calgary seat.

Lastly is BC, which continues to be a general mess thanks to 3 way races. The Greens, at these levels, are seen picking up Victoria.

A few interesting ridings
Victoria, where the Greens at 33.2% lead the NDP at 31.6%
Saanich Esquimalt, with the NDP winning at 32.5% ahead of the Greens at 27.8%
Vimy, winning NDP at 31.5% over Liberals at 31.3%
Louis Hebert, NDP at 29.9% over Tories at 27.4%, Libs at 21.6%, and Bloc at 19.9%

Ridings the Bloc have "any hope in hell" in:

Saint Maurice
Richmond Arthabaska

No, Duceppe will not win, even if all these other seats are captured.

Lastly, a note for those stumbling here from google. Before you report "riding polls done by Teddy on Politics blog" do yourself a favour and look around. This is an election projection website that uses math. We take federal polls, at the provincial level, and use tried-and-tested mathematical means to turn that into a riding-by-riding level projection. These are not polls, and are not presented as polls. The only way someone could mistake them for polls is if they have happened across this website for the first time and don't bother checking any page except this one before making a presumption and running with it.

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