Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Analysis for September 22nd

A few things I've noticed.

First, the gains the Liberals had in Ontario seems to be slowly slipping away. The Tories are inching ahead. This is likely due to the fact that we are further and further away from the days (or perhaps the day) where Trudeau and his policies were lead stories in the news. His announcement that he'd be willing to run a deficit seemed to really catch attention and differentiate him from Mulcair and Harper. However, two things are impacting that.

First, it's been a while. We've not really seen Trudeau, or any other leader, be the lead in the news due to their policies in a while. Parties are doing more reacting than they are acting.

Second, according to the Tories, the deficit is gone. This also has taken a bit of the wind out of this argument as it would mean going back to deficit rather than staying with one.

Second, the NDP seems to be running into some trouble in Quebec. This seems focused on racism, if I may be so bold. There are simply some in Quebec who are anti-islam. Sure you can say "it's not racism, it's religionism" but the impact is the same, the motivation is the same, and the pure ignorant hate is the same.

This has boosted the Bloc numbers, though not enough to be winning seats, but also seems to be increasing Liberal fortunes.

So what's happening and why?

Simple put, about 2/3rds of Canadians want a change in government. The big issue is they are split between the Liberals and NDP. The only thing they know for certain is that they do not want Harper to remain PM.

At this time, when the Tories are second, or perhaps even third, that means these voters still have the luxury of thinking and waiting to make up their mind. With the CPC increasing in Ontario, this is becoming a tougher sell. People will need to decide who they want, Mulcair and the NDP, or Trudeau and the Liberals, and when they do and the momentum starts to swing, the Tories will be knocked out of any first place they may temporarily retake and be pushed back into second, or third.

There are a few things on the horizon.

I'm watching the NDP numbers with increased attention. There is some indication the NDP may be losing their core base. Fewer and fewer people are telling pollsters they voted NDP last time. This is a huge problem for the party if it continues. Why? Well in the last Ontario election, there were fewer people who admitted to voting PC than actually did in the prior election, and, the PC Party was thus over-estimated in the polls. In 2012, fewer Albertans admitted voting Wildrose, and they underperformed the polls. In BC it was the NDP that suffered. And in Quebec, at least for the first half of the election, the PQ.

If the NDP continues on this trend - where fewer people admit to having voted NDP last time than reality dictates - it means the NDP will not perform as well as the polls indicate. My suspicion is this comes from Quebec, and if true, it could mean that the margin between the NDP and the Bloc could shrink by as much as 10% from the final election poll to the election itself.

As always, I'll keep you updated on the goings on.



  1. Can the Bloq deliver any votes to the polling booths with no organization at all? Or is that the state of Quebec politics where no party has much of an organization?

    1. They can, but I'm not convinced it will be enough. Still, there is a lot of time to go, so we shall see. I'm putting the Bloc at between 0 and 8 seats in terms of levels that would leave me not surprised. I'd only be surprised if they won more than 8 seats, and only really be shocked if they somehow won more than 15.

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