Monday, September 21, 2015

Central Nova update

Riding polls are often not trusted very well. Part of the reason is some of them don't come true. What I've discovered is that "behind" certain riding polls is a "presumed" level of provincial support. The "peaks and valleys" remain constant, but, the raw support does not.

In short, this means that a "wrong" riding poll is actually "right", but for another support level.

Why does this matter?

Central Nova

Up till now I had been presuming that Peter MacKay had a huge personal vote. The recent riding poll, however, indicates this is not the case.

In my earlier projection, I had the Tories, in Central Nova, on 25.07% of the vote.
I've gone into the ElectoMatic and removed the "No MacKay Penalty" from the party.

Central Nova is thus the only riding in the entire projection that changes, and it changes to the following:

NDP - 31.33%
CPC - 30.30%
LIB - 29.27%
GRN - 8.78%
OTH - 0.32%

Central Nova is thus, now, by far, the most winnable riding for the Tories in Nova Scotia. But, at current support levels, would go to the NDP.

"Current Support Levels" presume the Tories are way down at 17.5% in the Atlantic as a whole.

As such, any slight bump, and this riding will turn blue.

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