Sadly, my time is extremely limited, but, I do have a full projection, fully up to date, ready to go.
Expect more analysis in the coming days. For now, straight to the numbers and the maps.
Sunday, September 20, 2015
Grand Opening!
I know it's still the evening of the 20th, but I've decided to throw open the doors of this website.
Sadly, my time is extremely limited, but, I do have a full projection, fully up to date, ready to go.
Expect more analysis in the coming days. For now, straight to the numbers and the maps.
Sadly, my time is extremely limited, but, I do have a full projection, fully up to date, ready to go.
Expect more analysis in the coming days. For now, straight to the numbers and the maps.
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Teddy, You are vastly overestimating the NDP's chances here. Structurally, the Tories have the best chance of pulling off a plurality and/or a majority. Take Quebec out of the equation, and The NDP is a 35 seat party.
ReplyDeleteI anticipate big trouble for the NDP in Quebec over the Niqab issue, and their seat count will take a big hit as the Tories and Bloc pick off NDP votes on accont of this. If you follow Nanos, you can see it starting already.
The NDP is also VERY unlikely to break though in Ontario.
I also think the Liberals and NDP re overestimated out west. In BC, the Tories have the lead again, and are probably good for 15-20 in BC right now. I expect the Tories to win 33 or 34 in Alberta, and 12 of 14 in SK... In MB, I expect the Libs to make some gains, such as St Boniface and Churchill, and maybe even pick off Wpg center. Manitobans are not happy with NDP. So 10 of 14 in MB for the Tories. Ontario looks like a Lib/Tory dogfight. NDP unlikely to break 20.
BAck to Quebec: I see some modest Lib gains in Montreal, such as Honore Mercier, Pierrefonds-Dollard, Laval Les iles, Dorval-Lachine-LaSalle, Ahuntsic cartierville, Verdun Sud oust Ile Des Souers & Brossard. All of these will come at NDP expense. Mont Royal leans Lib, but could go Tory. Slippage for the NDP could deliver VIMY and Alfred pellan to the LIbs as well. The Tories will hold what they have, and pick up Richmond Arthabasca, Montmagny-Lislet-Riv Du Loup, & Louis St Laurent, and if the Niqab thing plays out as many expect, look for some more Quebec City and Lac St jean region ridings to go blue. The Bloc is FAR from dead. Nanos has them ticking upward... Not enough for seats yet, but enough to COST the NDP seats to the Libs and Tories., If the Bloc rises further, say from 15% where they are today to 20%, then the NDP loses seats in the Monteregie and Lanaudiere to the Bloc, and Possibly Pointe de L'ile, and Laurier Ste marie in Montreal too. The Tories will challenge the Niqb ruling, which has won them some favour in QC, while the Bloic will benefit from thise who won't vote Tory, but oppose the Niqab ruling.
In the east, NB 5 Tory, 4 Liberal, 1 NDP... in NS 2 tory 3 NDP 6 Liberal... In PEI: Liberal sweep. In NL, 6 Libs I NDP. I think we see the North going one seat apiece, Aglukaq to hold. Leef in some trouble.
So, Tories have the structural edge now, because of the west. The Libs are too weak there. The Trudeau name is going to be a big problem.
So as of now, the way I see things, Con: 140, Lib: 113, NDP: 84, Gr. 1
the projection is based on math and polls, but if you do have a specific area of concern as to where I've gone wrong, I'm all ears
DeleteI take into account regional nuances. Coming oirigianlly from Quebec, I have a reasonably good idea of he diffwrences in mindsets in the regions and have a pretty good idea of how people will react.
DeleteOne thing you need to remember about Quebec, is that they have a very short fuse on Muslims who don't want to assimilate. case in point the Hebertville incident, which, in 2007 resulted in the ADQ coming out of nowhere, and nearly winning government.
Muclair is already facing a mutiny from some of his Quebec MPs who know they will lose heir seats over this, and some have actually begun campaigning campaigning against the Niqab.
Quebec voters can be volatile and flip on a dime, and often do, as happened in 2011, 1993, &b 1984...
BTW, Teddy, you have done an excellent job on this blog when it comes to how the information is displayed!
ReplyDeleteI'm very displeased myself, actually, and am working on far better ways to display this. Sadly, my time is all too limited.
DeleteI was asked about Thornhill. This is a map error. The word to the left of "wins" takes priority over all other things, thus, it should be marked as blue on the map.
ReplyDeleteThe colour of the riding name should, at all times, match the maps. I try to change these at the same time. The word to the left auto-updates when I put in new polls.
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