Iceland
Still no government (sigh)
The most recent news is the Progressives are trying to cobble one together; they are the scandal ridden former government heads who were resoundingly voted out.
New Zealand
Still no new polls, but a poll taken during the resignation suggests national may be down slightly, perhaps, after everything is taken into account, down from an average of near 47 to closer to 43.
At Home (Canada)
The Liberals have lost quite a few points in recent polling, but are still polling ahead of their election performance.
Macedonia
Things have not generally turned to violence, so that's good, but things are still chaotic. Looks like the entire election hinges on a single polling booth that had a re-vote, and has yet to be counted.
Turks and Caicos
December 15th election, opposition has won, and is forming a new government.
Ivory Coast
Existing government re-elected handedly, taking 50%+1 of the vote compared to the largest opposition party, which took 5.8%.
Future elections to look to
Regionally;
Western Australia in March
British Columbia in May
And Nationally;
Netherlands in March
France in April
Monday, December 26, 2016
Wednesday, December 21, 2016
Crossbenchers Assemble
Today the Senate announced the reaction of an Independent Senate Group, in effect, a crossbencher club within the Senate. You can read more about it here.
I'm not going to talk in detail about it, because, in part, I've mentioned this sort of thing, in drips and drabs, before.
However, I did want to update the "Senate Graphic" I use. Note that the ISG is in lighter greys while the Senators remaining "Independent" are darker. I've still shaded them by political leaning however.
I'm not going to talk in detail about it, because, in part, I've mentioned this sort of thing, in drips and drabs, before.
However, I did want to update the "Senate Graphic" I use. Note that the ISG is in lighter greys while the Senators remaining "Independent" are darker. I've still shaded them by political leaning however.
Tuesday, December 20, 2016
2016 will be known for it's faithless electors.
When states like New Hampshire, Georgia, and Vermont produced results showing 0 faithless electors, it started to look like 2016 would be known as the year everyone worried about them, but that none showed up to vote.
In the end, there were numerous cases.
In Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota, one elector each tried to cast a a faithless ballot, but they were overturned in each state, and either replaced, or forced to cast a ballot that matches their states popular vote totals.
Washington cast 4 faithless ballots.
Texas cast two.
and Hawaii cast 1.
With a total of 7 faithless electors, from 3 states, and an attempt by 3 others, from 3, states, to join them, this clearly becomes "the" election of faithless electors. All previous faithless electors either had 'good reason', such as the death of a candidate, had their ballots cast under different circumstances, or were one-offs and aberrations in their elections.
In the end, there were numerous cases.
In Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota, one elector each tried to cast a a faithless ballot, but they were overturned in each state, and either replaced, or forced to cast a ballot that matches their states popular vote totals.
Washington cast 4 faithless ballots.
Texas cast two.
and Hawaii cast 1.
With a total of 7 faithless electors, from 3 states, and an attempt by 3 others, from 3, states, to join them, this clearly becomes "the" election of faithless electors. All previous faithless electors either had 'good reason', such as the death of a candidate, had their ballots cast under different circumstances, or were one-offs and aberrations in their elections.
Monday, December 19, 2016
Final Tally looking 305 Trump, 228 Clinton, 3 Powell, 1 Kasich, 1 Spotted Eagle
Voting continues, but we have a good idea of the final results. Trump has already won the 270 he needs, but there are other 'winners' as well.
Colin Powell is the surprise 'winner', taking 3 votes from Washington.
John Kasich is also a winner, taking the expected single vote from Texas.
Or possibly;
Or possibly;
The John Kasich vote expected from Texas never materialized.
Texas is the state that put Trump over the top; without it, he would have failed to take a majority, and would have been left with 268 votes.
But the surprise winner is Faith Spotted Eagle. You can see a video of her here from CNN.
As far as I know she's the first native person to win an electoral vote in US history.
There still could be faithless electors from states yet to declare such as California, Nevada, Hawaii, or the District of Columbia; which voted earlier but has yet to publish results. Even if all of them, and, the electors from Texas, voted for the same person, they would be unable to overtake Clinton. As well, if even 2 Texas electors vote for Trump (all signs are at least 37 will) it's all over, and Trump is the winner.
There still could be faithless electors from states yet to declare such as California, Nevada, Hawaii, or the District of Columbia; which voted earlier but has yet to publish results. Even if all of them, and, the electors from Texas, voted for the same person, they would be unable to overtake Clinton. As well, if even 2 Texas electors vote for Trump (all signs are at least 37 will) it's all over, and Trump is the winner.
All of these votes will need to be read and certified in Congress, of course, but it's terribly unlikely that what was put into the envelope in the state capitol and what's read in Congress will be different.
Current map is as follows:
Electoral Vote rolls in
Just a quick update and current map.
In short, this mass of faithless electors has not appeared. I'm expecting a grand total of 2, possibly 3 by the end of the day, if that many.
You can watch "live" as the results come in here, at 270 to win.
The most interesting will be the texas vote. This should be where the livestream is. Not only will it put Trump over the top, but there's an expected faithless elector.
In short, this mass of faithless electors has not appeared. I'm expecting a grand total of 2, possibly 3 by the end of the day, if that many.
You can watch "live" as the results come in here, at 270 to win.
The most interesting will be the texas vote. This should be where the livestream is. Not only will it put Trump over the top, but there's an expected faithless elector.
19DEC2016 - Elector Day
USA:
Today is the day electors from the US electoral college cast their ballots. Normally this day passes without notice, so I don't really have past memory of how all this goes. Theoretically the electors submit 6 envelopes. 1 to Congress, 1 as a backup to Congress, 1 as a backup to the backup, 1 to the State's Secretary of State (Who normally administers elections), 1 as a backup, and 1 to a local judge.
It's unclear when these are opened.
It's unclear if electors can, or should, talk about the results.
As such its quite possible that by the end of the day today we won't have any idea of how the electoral college voted.
Iceland:
Still no government
New Zealand:
No new polls since Key quit and English took over. I'll keep you updated when new stuff rolls in.
Macedonia:
The elections have produced a near tie, and things are getting messy. I'll update when things become a bit more coherent.
Today is the day electors from the US electoral college cast their ballots. Normally this day passes without notice, so I don't really have past memory of how all this goes. Theoretically the electors submit 6 envelopes. 1 to Congress, 1 as a backup to Congress, 1 as a backup to the backup, 1 to the State's Secretary of State (Who normally administers elections), 1 as a backup, and 1 to a local judge.
It's unclear when these are opened.
It's unclear if electors can, or should, talk about the results.
As such its quite possible that by the end of the day today we won't have any idea of how the electoral college voted.
Iceland:
Still no government
New Zealand:
No new polls since Key quit and English took over. I'll keep you updated when new stuff rolls in.
Macedonia:
The elections have produced a near tie, and things are getting messy. I'll update when things become a bit more coherent.
Thursday, December 15, 2016
Rural vs Urban
Statscan has a great table showing the rural VS urban split here in Ontario.
There's a problem with it though, it does not reflect "feeling".
That might sound stupid, or silly, but I think it's something we overlook when it comes to politics.
Statscan defines "urban" as anyone living in a population centre with over 1,000 people, and, anyone living outside these areas but in an area with over 400 persons per square kilometer.
This means the nearby settlement to me, of Wyevale, seen here on google maps, is an "urban area"
It's difficult to try to figure out exactly how many people live in areas above or below a certain point. Consider that even Toronto has farms within it's municipal limits.
I have tried to estimate levels of "feeling" in the various ridings in Ontario. I caution these are personal guesstimates, and there are no hard facts and figures. Red means fully Urban while a darker Green indicates fully Rural. Lighter shades indicate a slightly mixed feeling with one side favoured, while Orange/Yellow indicates a roughly equal mix of the two.
Again, no hard numbers, but from this, I would estimate that a good 40%-45% of Ontarians consider themselves to be "Rural", regardless of what the official statistics say.
This is one reason why "rural" arguments impact. You are not talking to the farmers who live between Goderich and Kincardine, you are talking to people who live in Stratford. Your arguments aren't only for those in Port Milford, they are for those in Cornwall.
In general, and it's not an exact science, and there are always nuances, but you can assume that a third of more of those people listed in the "urban" section would self-describe as "rural".
Using this formula, Ontario is 42.7% rural. Quebec is 46% rural, Alberta is 45%, BC is 42.6%, and the closest to the borderline is Manitoba at 51% rural, with all other provinces showing up as more "Rural" than Urban using this formula, with PEI being the most "Rural" at 69%, which, having lived there, seems low.
I think that, in general, feeling is important to keep in mind. If you "feel" poor, arguments designed for the poor will impact you. If you "feel" ignored, arguments designed for the ignored will resonate. Even if the statistics say that you are not poor, or ignored, if you "feel" you are, these political arguments will have sway with you.
There's a problem with it though, it does not reflect "feeling".
That might sound stupid, or silly, but I think it's something we overlook when it comes to politics.
Statscan defines "urban" as anyone living in a population centre with over 1,000 people, and, anyone living outside these areas but in an area with over 400 persons per square kilometer.
This means the nearby settlement to me, of Wyevale, seen here on google maps, is an "urban area"
It's difficult to try to figure out exactly how many people live in areas above or below a certain point. Consider that even Toronto has farms within it's municipal limits.
I have tried to estimate levels of "feeling" in the various ridings in Ontario. I caution these are personal guesstimates, and there are no hard facts and figures. Red means fully Urban while a darker Green indicates fully Rural. Lighter shades indicate a slightly mixed feeling with one side favoured, while Orange/Yellow indicates a roughly equal mix of the two.
Again, no hard numbers, but from this, I would estimate that a good 40%-45% of Ontarians consider themselves to be "Rural", regardless of what the official statistics say.
This is one reason why "rural" arguments impact. You are not talking to the farmers who live between Goderich and Kincardine, you are talking to people who live in Stratford. Your arguments aren't only for those in Port Milford, they are for those in Cornwall.
In general, and it's not an exact science, and there are always nuances, but you can assume that a third of more of those people listed in the "urban" section would self-describe as "rural".
Using this formula, Ontario is 42.7% rural. Quebec is 46% rural, Alberta is 45%, BC is 42.6%, and the closest to the borderline is Manitoba at 51% rural, with all other provinces showing up as more "Rural" than Urban using this formula, with PEI being the most "Rural" at 69%, which, having lived there, seems low.
I think that, in general, feeling is important to keep in mind. If you "feel" poor, arguments designed for the poor will impact you. If you "feel" ignored, arguments designed for the ignored will resonate. Even if the statistics say that you are not poor, or ignored, if you "feel" you are, these political arguments will have sway with you.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)