With 88% of votes counted, Bibi's main path to victory has been closed
16 Haredim
6 Otzma
52 - Core Bibi
17 Lapid
8 Gantz
7 Lieberman
7 Avoda
6 Sa'ar
45 - Core anti-Bibi
7 Bennett
Swing; 59 with bibi, 52 with anti-bibi.
6 Arabs
5 Left
5 Ra'am
~88% of ballots counted
Things can, of course, still change. The formula (Bibi + Bennett = Majority) has been swinging between "YES" and "NO" through the entire count. Ra'am currently sits at 4.02%, above the 3.25% threshold. With so many ballots counted, it would be difficult, but not impossible, for them to plunge back below that number. Given the other results, the most realistic way for Bibi+Bennett to get a majority, is if Ra'am plunges back below the threshold.
This then leaves open the question of Ra'am itself.
Ra'am ran its own independent campaign (outside the Joint List of other Arab parties) explicitly because it hoped that a Bibi government would work with it. It now looks like the numbers may have put Ra'am in the exact position it hoped for. The question then becomes; is Bibi willing to work with them, and if so, are Bibi's allies willing to stomach that.
I will update/edit this post if any new releveling information comes out today, or even tomorrow before sunset (when another post goes up) Such edits will appear below.
Thursday Morning update:
30 Bibi
16 Haredim
6 Otzma
52 - Core Bibi
17 Lapid
8 Gantz
7 Lieberman
7 Avoda
6 Sa'ar
45 - Core anti-Bibi
7 Bennett
Swing; 59 with bibi, 52 with anti-bibi.
6 Arabs
6 Left
4 Ra'am
~96% of ballots counted
So long as Ra'am remains above the threshold, there is no simple way for Bibi to get his majority. Bibi's allies are unwilling to work with them, at least, enough of them have expressed reservations that make such an alliance all but impossible.
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