Friday, March 26, 2021

Israel, two possibilities

 This will be a short post; my building was without power for much of the day. 

It seems two coalitions are potentially possible. I'll outline what they are and what the problems with them are


30 Bibi
16 Haredim
7 Bennett
5 Tkuma+Noam
4 Defectors

Total - 62

The 6 members elected under what I listed as "Otzma" actually make up 4 members of the party formerly known as Tkuma, one from Noam, and one from Otzma itself. Otzma is a racist party, that lies somewhere between parties like AfD and Golden Dawn. Tkuma and Noam are closer to the AfD, though, Noam is fanatically homophobic. 

The 4 defectors would be from the party lead by Gideon Sa'ar; New Hope. 

Such a coalition is likely not going to be all that much more stable than the last few, and would only give Bibi another year or two in office. 


17 Lapid
8 Gantz
7 Lieberman
7 Avoda
7 Bennett
6 Sa'ar
52 - Coalition Government
6 Arabs
5 Left
63 - With outside support

Supposedly, the way this would work is that Lapid would get the votes for PM when parliament opens; but Bennett would be the first to serve as PM. The government would sit for a year, and at the half-way mark, Bennett would hand over to Lapid. Somewhere before that, the Haredim parties would be invited in so that the government would not need the support of either the Arabs or the Left. 

Right now, this is the most likely option, but, it faces some big obstacles. Lieberman has made many enemies over the year, in particular, the Left, Haredim, and Arabs. The plan calls for all 3 to back this. 

Additionally, the existing government was based on a deal that Bibi would allow Gantz to become Prime Minister, only for Bibi to stab Gantz in the back. As such, whomever would serve second in any deal would have to worry about the honesty of their partner. 

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