Friday, March 19, 2021

Israeli Election, prediction

 Those of you who follow me may know that I "live" blogged this on my Twitch channel, showing people how I make my posts. 

On the 23rd Israel will vote in its 4th election in 2 years. Sadly, as you will quickly see, the results may be as inconclusive as the previous three.

Lets go right to the numbers:

32 Bibi
18 Lapid
15 Haredim
9 Bennett
8 Arabs
8 Lieberman
7 Sa'ar
5 Avoda
5 Otzma
5 Gantz
4 Left
4 Ra'am

This would give the pro-Bibi faction, 52 seats (Likud, Haredim, and Otzma), but also give the so-called "anti"-Bibi faction, 52 seats (Lapid, Bennet, Lieberman, Sa'ar, Avoda, Gantz).

The problem here is that the "anti" faction is far weaker than the "pro" faction. It is more likely that a party from the "anti" faction would join the "pro" faction, than vice versa. 

It is still possible that someone like Bennett could end up as Prime Minister (Lapid seems to know that the right-wing parties in the 'anti' faction do not want him as PM, and thus he seems 'okay' with the idea - seeming to never have campaigned as if him becoming PM was even possible.) but Sa'ar, with only 7 seats, is no longer the most likely victor. 

Bennett however, might be persuaded to join with Bibi for the right price. Frankly, almost any party might "sell its soul" to get in power. The 'problem' is that Gantz did this, and suffered badly for it. 

The TL;DR is that unless the polls (and therefore my predictions) are wrong, this election will not produce the stability that Israelis hope.

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