Tuesday, April 30, 2019

PEI, Electoral Reform, and a "Lite" proposal.

Canadians, as seen in the referenda we've held towards election reform, need to be warmed up to the idea. In order to achieve this goal, I propose a "Lite" reform.

PEI will be our example.

This reform will keep the 27 ridings we have, and keep them FPTP. It will add 5 new ridings. Why 5? Two reasons. First is that at one time, PEI had 32 ridings; and had 32 from 1966 to 1996. Second is the use of a formula I am proposing which I'll outline at the bottom of this post, from which you can work out the number of additional seats to add to any province with.

Next, we simply use the total party vote across the province to help determine our result. Then we divide it by the number of seats each party has won, plus one. Why plus one? It's a bit of complex math, but in short, that is the one seat we are currently calculating.

The results we then get are 3,387 for the Liberals, 2,732 for the Greens, 2,402 for the NDP, and 2,256 for the Tories. The Liberals, with the highest total, "win" this, the first of our five additional seats.

Thus we add one to the Liberal total, which, impacts their new number, down to 2,964. Still the highest, so they win this, the second, of our additional seats.

Now down at 2,635, the Liberals are no longer the highest party, the Greens are, who win the third of our additional seats.

The Greens fall to 2,459 allowing the Liberals to win the fourth seat, but the Liberals falling to 2,371, allow the Greens to take the 5th and final extra seat, reducing their total to 2,236

The NDP would be next, if there were any additional seats to hand out, but there are not.

What this does is change our final results to 12 PC, 10 Green, and 9 Liberal. This has a much closer reflection to the actual popular vote totals cast in the election.





Formula for calculating the number of additional seats.
Legislature divided by 7. Take that number, add one. Round.

PEI sees 27/7 = 3.857, add one = 4.857, round = 5
Ontario 121/7 = 17.2857, add one = 18.2857, round = 18
Quebec 125/7 = 17.857, add one = 18.857, round = 19
Newfoundland (40) = would result in 7 additional seats
MB (57) = 9 additional
AB (87) = 13 additional
Federally = is not done; is done by region (ON, QC, BC, AB, as well as the Atlantic, and 'Central Prairies and North') which gives us 19 for Ontario, 12 for Quebec, 7 for BC, 6 for AB, 6 for the Atlantic, 5 for the remainder. (for a total of 55)

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